Turkmen Goksel

Financial Constraints and International Trade Patterns

Growing empirical literature shows that financial constraints reduce the chance of exporting, suggesting that financial constraints are an important determinant of international trade patterns. In this aspect, I develop a model of international trade based on new trade theory with financial constraints and non-homothetic preferences. With these two modified assumptions, the main findings are i) financial constraints act as trade barriers, ii) the largest amount of trade is between countries that have healthier financial systems in terms of access to loans and iii) financial constraints can cause one way or zero trade. As a result, this paper provides a single framework able to account for all possible patterns (two-way, one-way, and no trade) within the same industry. All these findings have important policy implications for countries suffering from relatively poor financial systems.

Religion, Income Inequality, and the Size of the Government

Recent empirical research has demonstrated that countries with higher levels of religiosity are characterized by greater income inequality. We argue that this is due to the lower level of government services demanded in more religious countries. Religion requires that individuals make financial sacrifices and this leads the religious to prefer making their contributions voluntarily rather than through mandatory means. To the extent that citizen preferences are reflected in policy outcomes, religiosity results in lower taxes, which in turn implies lower levels of spending on both public goods and redistribution. Since measures of income typically do not fully take into account the part of income coming from donations received, this increases measured income inequality. We formalize these ideas in a general equilibrium political economy model and also show that the implications of our model are supported by cross-country data.

Reputation and learning: Japanese car exports to the United States

This paper incorporates learning and reputation building into a simple dynamic stochastic model with asymmetric information. We use the model to study a bilateral trade flow influenced significantly by learning and reputation, namely U.S. imports of Japanese cars over the period 1961–2004. Numerical simulations replicate the trade flow in a robust fashion. Including the Voluntary Export Restraint in our simulations predicts U.S. imports decreased by 2.46 million cars over the years 1981–1984. Since learning and reputation building require time, predicted short run trade patterns can be quite different than those predicted in the long run. We apply this idea to understand the change in Japanese market share in the U.S. automobile market. We also explore the importance of sectorial differences in the speed of learning and reputation building on predicted trade patterns. Lastly, we examine how the extent of asymmetric information existing between importers and exporters changes under different trade policies.

Reputation and Learning: Japanese Car Exports to the United States

This paper incorporates learning and reputation building into a simple dynamic stochastic model of international trade with asymmetric information. We use the model to study a bilateral trade flow influenced significantly by learning and reputation, namely U.S. imports of Japanese cars over the period 1961-2005. Numerical simulations replicate the trade flow in a robust fashion. In addition to matching this event, we explore further implications of our framework for understanding international trade patterns. Since learning and reputation building require time, predicted short run trade patterns can be quite different than those predicted in the long run. Sectorial differences in the speed of learning and reputation building affect predicted trade patterns. The extent of asymmetric information existing between importers and exporters also changes under different trade policies.

The Baby Boom, Baby Busts, and the Role of Grandmothers in Childcare

Studies in family economics and anthropology suggest that grandmothers are a highly valuable source of childcare assistance. As such, the availability of grandmothers affects the cost of having children, and hence the fertility decisions of young parents. In this paper, we develop a simple model to assess the fertility implications of the fluctuations in both output (as argued by demographers) and grandmother-availability induced child-care costs over the period of 1920-1970. The model does a good job of mimicking the bust-boom-bust pattern during this period. When the child-care cost channel is shut down, the model’s performance weakens significantly; in particular, it fails altogether to capture the bust in the 1960’s.Studies in family economics and anthropology suggest that grandmothers are a highly valuable source of childcare assistance. As such, availability of grandmothers affects the cost of having children, and hence fertility decisions of young parents. In this paper, we develop a simple model to assess the fertility implications of the fluctuations in both output (as argued by demographers) and grandmother-availability induced child-care costs over the period 1920-1970. Model does a good job of mimicking the bust-boom-bust pattern during this period. When the child-care cost channel is shut down, the model’s performance weakens significantly; in particular, it fails to capture the bust in the 1960’s altogether.

Costs of Low Productivity: Intensive and Extensive Margins

This paper discusses welfare costs of a decrease in productivity and argues that there are two important channels which cause a reduction in welfare: a decrease in output per firm (intensive margin) and a decrease in number of operating firms (extensive margin). Traditional Dixit-Stiglitz monopolistic competition framework with constant elasticity of substitution utility and common productivity across firms fail to capture the extensive margin. To address this problem, this paper introduces “continuum-quadratic” utility while keeping the other assumptions unchanged and finds that lowering productivity affects not only the intensive but extensive margin as well. This paper highlights the importance of a second channel and argues that this channel should taken into account while calculating the loss of welfare due to a decrease in productivity. Hence, this paper suggests that alternative class of utility specifications (other than constant elasticity of substitution) have to receive more attention with monopolistic competition framework.

Firm Taxation and the Endogenous Distribution of Markups

Melitz and Ottaviano (2008) predicts a monotonic relation between productivity and markups. When including revenue taxes, however, this relation is non-monotonic and depends on taxes. Even without taxes, productivity and markups can be non-monotonic depending on how non-homotheticity is modeled.