Charles A. Doswell

Flash flood forecasting : An ingredients-based methodology

Abstract An approach to forecasting the potential for flash flood-producing storms is developed, using the notion of basic ingredients. Heavy precipitation is the result of sustained high rainfall rates. In turn, high rainfall rates involve the rapid ascent of air containing substantial water vapor and also depend on the precipitation efficiency. The duration of an event is associated with its speed of movement and the size of the system causing the event along the direction of system movement. This leads naturally to a consideration of the meteorological processes by which these basic ingredients are brought together. A description of those processes and of the types of heavy precipitation-producing storms suggests some of the variety of ways in which heavy precipitation occurs. Since the right mixture of these ingredients can be found in a wide variety of synoptic and mesoscale situations, it is necessary to know which of the ingredients is critical in any given case. By knowing which of the ingredients...

Severe Local Storms Forecasting

Abstract Knowledge of severe local storms has been increasing rapidly in recent years as a result of both observational studies and numerical modeling experiments. This paper reviews that knowledge as it relates to development of new applications for forecasting of severe local storms. Many of these new applications are based on physical understanding of processes taking place on the storm scale and thus allow forecasters to become less dependent on empirical relationships. Refinements in pattern recognition and severe weather climatology continue to be of value to the operational severe local storms forecasters, however. Current methodology for forecasting severe local storms at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center is described. Operational uses of new forecast applications, new “real-time” data sources (such as wind profilers and Doppler radars), and improved numerical model products are discussed.

Severe Thunderstorm Evolution and Mesocyclone Structure as Related to Tornadogenesis

Abstract Severe thunderstorm evolution is synthesized, using published and unpublished studies of radar, instrumented aircraft, visual and surface observations. These observations reveal the existence of a downdraft (originating at 7–10 km AGL) on the relative upwind side of the updraft. Air decelerates at the upwind stagnation point, is forced downward and mixes with air below which then reaches the surface through evaporative cooling and precipitation drag. The initially rotating updraft is then transformed into a new mesocyclone with a divided structure, in which the circulation center lies along the zone separating the rear blank downdraft from the updraft. This process appears to result, in part, from tilting of horizontal vorticity into the vertical. It is proposed that the zone of strong vertical velocity gradient across which the mesocyclone comes to be positioned is also characterized by a strong temperature gradient and is the genesis region of strong tornadoes. Although no direct observations a...

On Summary Measures of Skill in Rare Event Forecasting Based on Contingency Tables

Abstract The so-called True Skill Statistic (TSS) and the Heidke Skill Score (S), as used in the context of the contingency, table approach to forecast verification, are compared. It is shown that the TSS approaches the Probability of Detection (POD) whenever the forecasting is dominated by correct forecasts of non-occurrence, i.e., forecasting rare events like severe local storms. This means that the TSS is vulnerable to “hedging” in rare event forecasting. The S-statistic is shown to be superior to the TSS in this situation, accounting for correct forecasts of null events in a controlled fashion. It turns out that the TSS and S values are related in a subtle way, becoming identical when the expected values (due to chance in a k × k contingency table) remain unchanged when comparing the actual forecast table to that of a hypothetical perfect set of forecasts. Examples of the behavior of the TSS and S values in different situations are provided which support the recommendation that S be used in preference...

The Effect of Neglecting the Virtual Temperature Correction on CAPE Calculations

Abstract A simple theoretical analysis of the impact of neglecting the virtual correction on calculation of CAPE is made. This theory suggests that while ignoring the virtual correction does not introduce much error for large CAPE values, the relative error can become substantial for small CAPE. A test of the theory is done by finding the error made by ignoring the virtual correction to CAPE for all the soundings in 1992 having positive CAPE (when the correction is made). Results of this empirical test confirm that the relative error made in ignoring the correction increases with decreasing CAPE. A number of other “corrections” to CAPE might be considered. In a discussion of the issues associated with the results of the analysis, it is recommended that CAPE calculations should include the virtual correction but that other complications should be avoided for most purposes, especially when making comparisons of CAPE values. A standardized CAPE calculation also is recommended.

On the Environments of Tornadic and Nontornadic Mesocyclones

Abstract The authors investigated differences in the environments associated with tornadic and nontornadic mesocyclones are investigated using proximity soundings. Questions about the definition of proximity are raised. As the environments of severe storms with high spatial and temporal resolution are observed, the operational meaning of proximity becomes less clear. Thus the exploration of the proximity dataset is subject to certain caveats that are presented in some detail. Results from this relatively small proximity dataset support a recently developed conceptual model of the development and maintenance of low-level mesocyclones within supercells. Three regimes of low-level mesocyclonic behavior are predicted by the conceptual model: (i) low-level mesocyclones are slow to develop, if at all, (ii) low-level mesocyclones form quickly but are short lived, and (iii) low-level mesocyclones develop slowly but have the potential to persist for hours. The model suggests that a balance is needed between the mi...

The Distinction between Large-Scale and Mesoscale Contribution to Severe Convection: A Case Study Example

Abstract Using a case study of a relatively modest severe weather event as an example, a framework for understanding the large-scale-mesoscale interaction is developed and discussed. Large-scale processes are limited, by definition, to those which are quasi-geostrophic. Mesoscale processes are defined to be those which are linked in essence to processes occurring on both larger and smaller scales. It is proposed that convective systems depend primarily on large-scale processes for developing a suitable thermodynamic structure, while mesoscale processes act mainly to initiate convection. The case study is presented not as a “typical” event in its particulars, but rather to suggest the complex ways in which large-scale and mesoscale processes can interact. Implications for forecasting are an essential part of the discussion, since mesoscale systems are so difficult to predict with the present knowledge and technology available in operations.

Climatological Estimates of Local Daily Tornado Probability for the United States

Abstract An estimate is made of the probability of an occurrence of a tornado day near any location in the contiguous 48 states for any time during the year. Gaussian smoothers in space and time have been applied to the observed record of tornado days from 1980 to 1999 to produce daily maps and annual cycles at any point on an 80 km × 80 km grid. Many aspects of this climatological estimate have been identified in previous work, but the method allows one to consider the record in several new ways. The two regions of maximum tornado days in the United States are northeastern Colorado and peninsular Florida, but there is a large region between the Appalachian and Rocky Mountains that has at least 1 day on which a tornado touches down on the grid. The annual cycle of tornado days is of particular interest. The southeastern United States, outside of Florida, faces its maximum threat in April. Farther west and north, the threat is later in the year, with the northern United States and New England facing its ma...

Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment: VORTEX

Abstract This paper describes the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment planned for 1994 and 1995 to evaluate a set of hypotheses pertaining to tornadogenesis and tornado dynamics. Observations of state variables will be obtained from five mobile mesonet vehicles, four mobile ballooning laboratories, three movie photography teams, portable Doppler radar teams, two in situ tornado instruments deployment teams, and the T-28 and National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration P-3 aircraft. In addition, extensive use will be made of the new generation of observing systems, including the WSR-88D Doppler radars, demonstration wind profiler network, and National Weather Service rawinsondes.

The Operational Recognition of Supercell Thunderstorm Environments and Storm Structures

Abstract Supercell thunderstorm forecasting and detection is discussed, in light of the disastrous weather events that often accompany supercells. The emphasis is placed on using a scientific approach to evaluate supercell potential and to recognize their presence rather than the more empirical methodologies (e.g., “rules of thumb”) that have been used in the past. Operational forecasters in the National Weather Service (NWS) can employ conceptual models of the supercell, and of the meteorological environments that produce supercells, to make operational decisions scientifically. The presence of a mesocyclone is common to all supercells, but operational recognition of supercells is clouded by the various radar and visual characteristics they exhibit. The notion of a supercell spectrum is introduced in an effort to guide improved operational detection of supercells. An important part of recognition is the anticipation of what potential exists for supercells in the prestorm environment. Current scientific u...