Robert H. Johns

Severe Local Storms Forecasting

Abstract Knowledge of severe local storms has been increasing rapidly in recent years as a result of both observational studies and numerical modeling experiments. This paper reviews that knowledge as it relates to development of new applications for forecasting of severe local storms. Many of these new applications are based on physical understanding of processes taking place on the storm scale and thus allow forecasters to become less dependent on empirical relationships. Refinements in pattern recognition and severe weather climatology continue to be of value to the operational severe local storms forecasters, however. Current methodology for forecasting severe local storms at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center is described. Operational uses of new forecast applications, new “real-time” data sources (such as wind profilers and Doppler radars), and improved numerical model products are discussed.

Derechos: Widespread Convectively Induced Windstorms

Abstract The derecho, a widespread convectively induced windstorm, is identified and defined in terms of current nomenclature. A comprehensive dataset consisting of 70 derecho cases has been developed from the warm season months of May through August for the 4-year period 1980–1983. Analyses of this dataset reveal that the warm season derecho typically emanates from a mesoscale convective system (MCS) moving along a quasistationary, low-level thermal boundary in an environment characterized by high potential instability and relatively strong midtropospheric winds. In the continental United States these windstorms are most frequent in a zone extending from eastern South Dakota to the Upper Ohio Valley, and typically commence during the afternoon and evening hours. Particular radar and satellite imagery characteristics are associated with the derecho-spawning MCS. Based upon the meteorological parameters and synoptic patterns associated with derecho events, a decision tree has been developed to assist the o...

The Bow Echo and MCV Experiment: Observations and Opportunities

The Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex Experiment (BAMEX) is a research investigation using highly mobile platforms to examine the life cycles of mesoscale convective systems. It represents a combination of two related investigations to study (a) bow echoes, principally those that produce damaging surface winds and last at least 4 h, and (b) larger convective systems that produce long-lived mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs). The field phase of BAMEX utilized three instrumented research aircraft and an array of mobile ground-based instruments. Two long-range turboprop aircraft were equipped with pseudo-dual-Doppler radar capability, the third aircraft was a jet equipped with dropsondes. The aircraft documented the environmental structure of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), observed the kinematic and thermodynamic structure of the convective line and stratiform regions (where rear-inflow jets and MCVs reside), and captured the structure of mature MCVs. The ground-based instruments augmented sou...

Meteorological Conditions Associated with Bow Echo Development in Convective Storms

Abstract Most observational and numerical modeling investigations into the meteorological factors affecting bow echo development in the United States have concerned long-lived events occurring during the late spring and summer. As a result, the meteorological patterns and parameter values (conceptual models) typically associated with bow echo development are biased toward the larger-scale warm season events. This note discusses the spectrum of meteorological conditions observed with bow echo development and extends the classification of associated meteorological patterns to cool season cases.

Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Production in Strongly Forced, Low-Instability Convective Lines Associated with Damaging Wind

During 9–11 November 1998 and 9–10 March 2002, two similar convective lines moved across the central and eastern United States. Both convective lines initiated over the southern plains along strong surfacebased cold fronts in moderately unstable environments. Both lines were initially associated with cloud-toground (CG) lightning, as detected by the National Lightning Detection Network, and both events met the criteria to be classified as derechos, producing swaths of widespread damaging wind. After moving into areas of marginal, if any, instability over the upper Midwest, CG lightning production ceased or nearly ceased, although the damaging winds continued. The 9 March 2002 line experienced a second phase of frequent CG lightning farther east over the mid-Atlantic states. Analysis of these two events shows that the production of CG lightning was sensitive to the occurrence and vertical distribution of instability. Periods with frequent CG lightning were associated with sufficient instability within the lower mixed-phase region of the cloud (i.e., the temperature range approximately between 10° and 20°C), a lifting condensation level warmer than 10°C, and an equilibrium level colder than 20°C. Periods with little or no CG lightning possessed limited, if any, instability in the lower mixed-phase region. The current Storm Prediction Center guidelines for forecasting these convective lines are presented.

A five-year climatology of elevated severe convective storms in the united states east of the rocky mountains

Abstract A 5-yr climatology of elevated severe convective storms was constructed for 1983–87 east of the Rocky Mountains. Potential cases were selected by finding severe storm reports on the cold side of surface fronts. Of the 1826 days during the 5-yr period, 1689 (91%) had surface fronts east of the Rockies. Of the 1689 days with surface fronts, 129 (8%) were associated with elevated severe storm cases. Of the 1066 severe storm reports associated with the 129 elevated severe storm cases, 624 (59%) were hail reports, 396 (37%) were wind reports, and 46 (4%) were tornado reports. A maximum of elevated severe storm cases occurred in May with a secondary maximum in September. Elevated severe storm cases vary geographically throughout the year, with a maximum over the south-central United States in winter to a central and eastern U.S. maximum in spring and summer. A diurnal maximum of elevated severe storm cases occurred at 2100 UTC, which coincided with the diurnal maximum of hail reports. The wind reports ...

Synoptic and Mesoscale Analysis of a High-Latitude Derecho–Severe Thunderstorm Outbreak in Finland on 5 July 2002

Abstract On 5 July 2002, a rapidly propagating bow echo formed over eastern Finland causing severe wind damage in an exceptionally large area. The Ministry of the Interior’s Emergency Response Centers received nearly 400 thunderstorm-related wind damage reports. The 5 July 2002 case is the highest-latitude derecho that has ever been documented. The bow echo developed ahead of a northeastward-moving 500-hPa trough inside of the warm sector of a secondary low and moved north-northwestward on the eastern (warm) side of the quasi-stationary front. The leading edge of the bow echo was oriented perpendicular to the low-level southerly wind shear and the convective system propagated along the 850-hPa equivalent potential temperature ridge with a speed that was close to the maximum wind throughout the troposphere. It is particularly noteworthy that the synoptic pattern was oriented about 90° counterclockwise when compared with the typical synoptic pattern associated with warm season derechos in the United States....

Extratropical Cyclones with Multiple Warm-Front-Like Baroclinic Zones and Their Relationship to Severe Convective Storms

Abstract Extratropical cyclones over the central United States and southern Canada from the years 1982 and 1989 were examined for the presence of two or more (multiple) warm-front-like baroclinic zones, hereafter called MWFL baroclinic zones. Of the 108 cyclones identified during this period, 42% were found to have MWFL baroclinic zones, where a baroclinic zone was defined as a magnitude of the surface temperature gradient of 8°F (4.4°C) 220 km−1 over a length of at least 440 km. The largest frequency of cyclones with MWFL baroclinic zones occurred during April, May, August, and September. Ninety-four percent of all baroclinic zones were coincident with a magnitude of the dewpoint temperature gradient of at least 4°F (2.2°C) 220 km−1, and 81% of all baroclinic zones possessed a wind shift of at least 20°, suggesting that these baroclinic zones were significant airmass and airstream boundaries. Although cyclones with MWFL baroclinic zones formed in a variety of ways, two synoptic patterns dominated. Thirty...

Spatial and temporal variability of nonfreezing drizzle in the United States and Canada

A climatology of nonfreezing drizzle is created using surface observations from 584 stations across the United States and Canada over the 15-yr period 1976–90. Drizzle falls 50–200 h a year in most locations in the eastern United States and Canada, whereas drizzle falls less than 50 h a year in the west, except for coastal Alaska and several western basins. The eastern and western halves of North America are separated by a strong gradient in drizzle frequency along roughly 100°W, as large as about an hour a year over 2 km. Forty percent of the stations have a drizzle maximum from November to January, whereas only 13% of stations have a drizzle maximum from June to August. Drizzle occurrence exhibits a seasonal migration from eastern Canada and the central portion of the Northwest Territories in summer, equatorward to most of the eastern United States and southeast Canada in early winter, to southeastern Texas and the eastern United States in late winter, and back north to eastern Canada in the spring. The diurnal hourly frequency of drizzle across the United States and Canada increases sharply from 0900 to 1200 UTC, followed by a steady decline from 1300 to 2300 UTC. Diurnal drizzle frequency is at a maximum in the early morning, in agreement with other studies. Drizzle occurs during a wide range of atmospheric conditions at the surface. Drizzle has occurred at sea level pressures below 960 hPa and above 1040 hPa. Most drizzle, however, occurs at higher than normal sea level pressure, with more than 64% occurring at a sea level pressure of 1015 hPa or higher. A third of all drizzle falls when the winds are from the northeast quadrant (360°–89°), suggesting that continental drizzle events tend to be found poleward of surface warm fronts and equatorward of cold-sector surface anticyclones. Two-thirds of all drizzle occurs with wind speeds of 2.0–6.9 m s 1 , with 7.6% in calm wind and 5% at wind speeds 10 m s 1 . Most drizzle (61%) occurs with visibilities between 1.5 and 5.0 km, with only about 20% occurring at visibilities less than 1.5 km.

Mesoscale Aspects of the Rapid Intensification of a Tornadic Convective Line across Central Florida: 22–23 February 1998

Abstract The 22–23 February 1998 central Florida tornado outbreak was one of the deadliest and costliest in Florida’s history; a number of long-track tornadoes moved across the Florida peninsula after 0000 UTC 23 February 1998. In the 12–24 h prior to 0000 UTC 23 February, a vigorous upper-level synoptic system was tracking across the southeast United States, and a north–south-oriented convective band located ahead of the cold front was moving eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Strong vertical wind shear was present in the lowest 1 km, due to a ∼25 m s−1 low-level jet at 925 hPa and south-southeasterly surface flow over the Florida peninsula. Further, CAPE values across the central Florida peninsula exceeded 2500 J kg−1. Upon making landfall on the Florida peninsula, the convective band rapidly intensified and developed into a line of tornadic supercells. This paper examines the relationship between a diabatically induced front across the central Florida peninsula and the rapid development of tornadic su...