Charles H. Jackman

Past, present, and future modeled ozone trends with comparisons to observed trends

The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) two-dimensional (2-D) model of stratospheric transport and photochemistry has been used to predict ozone changes that have occurred in the past 20 years from anthropogenic chlorine and bromine emissions, solar cycle ultraviolet flux variations, the changing sulfate aerosol abundance due to several volcanic eruptions including the major eruptions of El Chichon and Mount Pinatubo, solar proton events (SPEs), and galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). The same linear regression technique has been used to derive profile and total ozone trends from both measurements and the GSFC model. Derived 2-D model ozone profile trends are similar in shape to the Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) and SBUV/2 trends with highest percentage decreases in the upper stratosphere at the highest latitudes. The general magnitude of the derived 2-D model upper stratospheric negative ozone trend is larger than the trends derived from the observations, especially in the northern hemisphere. The derived 2-D model negative trend in the lower stratosphere at middle northern latitudes is less than the measured trend. The derived 2-D model total ozone trends are small in the tropics and larger at middle and high latitudes, a pattern that is very similar to the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) derived trends. The differences between the derived 2-D model and TOMS trends are generally within 1–2% in the northern hemisphere and the tropics. The derived 2-D model trends are generally more in southern middle and high latitudes by 2–4%. Our 2-D model predictions are also compared with the temporal variations in total ozone averaged between 65°S and 65°N over the TOMS observing period (1979–1993). Inclusion of anthropogenic chlorine and bromine increases, solar cycle ultraviolet flux variations, and the changing sulfate aerosol area abundance into our model captures much of the observed TOMS global total ozone changes. The model simulations predict a decrease in ozone of about 4% from 1979 to 1995 due to the chlorine and bromine increases. The changing sulfate aerosol abundances were computed to significantly affect ozone and result in a maximum decrease of about 2.8% in 1992 in the annually averaged almost global total ozone (AAGTO) computed between 65°S and 65°N. Solar ultraviolet flux variations are calculated to provide a moderate perturbation to the AAGTO over the solar cycle by a maximum of ±0.6% (about 1.2% from solar maximum to minimum). Effects from SPEs are relatively small, with a predicted maximum AAGTO decrease of 0.22% in 1990 after the extremely large events of October 1989. GCRs are computed to cause relatively minuscule variations of a maximum of + 0.02% in AAGTO over a solar cycle.

Climate simulations for 1880–2003 with GISS modelE

We carry out climate simulations for 1880–2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcings, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcings are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcings, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880–2003 forcings, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcings, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistically weak tropical El Nino-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. Greatest uncertainties in the forcings are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds.

Northern hemisphere atmospheric effects due to the July 2000 Solar Proton Event

The third largest solar proton event in the past thirty years took place during July 14-16, 2000, and had a significant impact on the earths atmosphere. These energetic protons produced both HO x (H, OH, HO 2 ) and NO x (N, NO, NO 2 ) constituents in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere at polar latitudes (> 60° geomagnetic) of both hemispheres. The temporal evolution of increases in NO and NO 2 during the event at northern polar latitudes were measured by the UARS HALOE instrument. Increases in mesospheric NO x of over 50 ppbv were found in the HALOE measurements. Measurements from the UARS HALOE and NOAA 14 SBUV/2 instruments indicate short-term (∼day) middle mesospheric ozone decreases of over 70% caused by short-lived HO x during the event with a longer-term (several days) upper stratospheric ozone depletion of up to 9% caused by longer-lived NO x . We believe this is the first time that the three constituents NO, NO 2 , and ozone were all measured simultaneously during a proton event. The observations constitute a dramatic confirmation of the impact of a large particle event in the control of ozone in the polar middle atmosphere and offer the opportunity to test theories of constituent changes driven by particle precipitation.

The middle atmospheric response to short and long term solar UV variations: analysis of observations and 2D model results

Abstract We have investigated the middle atmospheric response to the 27-day and 11-yr solar UV flux variations at low to middle latitudes using a two-dimensional photochemical model. The model reproduced most features of the observed 27-day sensitivity and phase lag of the profile ozone response in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere, with a maximum sensitivity of +0.51% per 1% change in 205 nm flux. The model also reproduced the observed transition to a negative phase lag above 2 mb, reflecting the increasing importance with height of the solar modulated HO x chemistry on the ozone response above 45 km. The rnodel revealed the general anti-correlation of ozone and solar UV at 65–75 km, and simulated strong UV responses of water vapor and HO x species in the mesosphere. Consistent with previous 1D model studies, the observed upper mesospheric positive ozone response averaged over ±40° was simulated only when the model water vapor concentrations above 75 km were significantly reduced relative to current observations. Including the observed temperature-UV response in the model to account for temperature-chemistry feedback improved the model agreement with observations in the middle mesosphere, but did not improve the overall agreement above 75 km or in the stratosphere for all time periods considered. Consistent with the short photochemical time scales in the upper stratosphere, the model computed ozone-UV sensitivity was similar for the 27-day and 11-yr variations in this region. However, unlike the 27-day variation, the model simulation of the 11-yr solar cycle revealed a positive ozone-UV response throughout the mesosphere due to the large depletion of water vapor and reduced HO x -UV sensitivity. A small negative ozone response at 65–75 km was obtained in the 11-yr simulation when temperature-chemistry feedback was included, In agreement with observations, the model computed a low to middle latitude total ozone phase lag of +3 days and a sensitivity of +0.077% per 1% change in 205 nm flux for the 27-day solar variation, and a total ozone sensitivity of +0.27% for the 11-yr solar cycle. This factor of 3 sensitivity difference is indicative of the photochemical time constant for ozone in the lower stratosphere which is comparable to the 27-day solar rotation period but is much shorter than the 11-yr solar cycle.

Detecting the recovery of total column ozone

International agreements for the limitation of ozone-depleting substances have already resulted in decreases in concentrations of some of these chemicals in the troposphere. Full compliance and understanding of all factors contributing to ozone depletion are still uncertain; however, reasonable expectations are for a gradual recovery of the ozone layer over the next 50 years. Because of the complexity of the processes involved in ozone depletion, it is crucial to detect not just a decrease in ozone-depleting substances but also a recovery in the ozone layer. The recovery is likely to be detected in some areas sooner than others because of natural variability in ozone concentrations. On the basis of both the magnitude and autocorrelation of the noise from Nimbus 7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer ozone measurements, estimates of the time required to detect a fixed trend in ozone at various locations around the world are presented. Predictions from the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) two-dimensional chemical model are used to estimate the time required to detect predicted trends in different areas of the world. The analysis is based on our current understanding of ozone chemistry, full compliance with the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, and no intervening factors, such as major volcanic eruptions or enhanced stratospheric cooling. The results indicate that recovery of total column ozone is likely to be detected earliest in the Southern Hemisphere near New Zealand, southern Africa, and southern South America and that the range of time expected to detect recovery for most regions of the world is between 15 and 45 years. Should the recovery be slower than predicted by the GSFC model, owing, for instance, to the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, or should measurement sites be perturbed, even longer times would be needed for detection.

Influence of extremely large solar proton events in a changing stratosphere

Two periods of extremely large solar proton events (SPEs) occurred in the past 30 years, which forced significant long-term polar stratospheric changes. The August 2-10, 1972, and October 19-27, 1989, SPEs happened in stratospheres that were quite different chemically. The stratospheric chlorine levels were relatively small in 1972 (∼1.2 ppbv) and were fairly substantial in 1989 (∼3 ppbv). Although these SPEs produced both HO x and NOy constituents in the mesosphere and stratosphere, only the NOy constituents had lifetimes long enough to affect ozone for several months to years past the events. Our recently improved two-dimensional chemistry and transport atmospheric model was used to compute the effects of these gigantic SPEs in a changing stratosphere. Significant upper stratospheric ozone depletions >10% are computed to last for a few months past these SPEs. The long-lived SPE-produced NOy constituents were transported to lower levels during winter after these huge SPEs and caused impacts in the middle and lower stratosphere. During periods of high halogen loading, these impacts resulted in interference with the chlorine and bromine loss cycles for ozone destruction. This interference actually led to a predicted total ozone increase that was especially notable in the time period 1992-1994, a few years after the October 1989 SPE. The chemical state of the atmosphere, including the stratospheric sulfate aerosol density, substantially affected the predicted stratospheric influence of these extremely large SPEs.

Stratospheric effects of Mount Pinatubo aerosol studied with a coupled two‐dimensional model

A new interactive radiative-dynamical-chemical zonally averaged two-dimensional model has been developed at Goddard Space Flight Center. The model includes a linear planetary wave parameterization featuring wave-mean flow interaction and the direct calculation of eddy mixing from planetary wave dissipation. It utilizes family gas phase chemistry approximations and includes heterogeneous chemistry on the surfaces of both stratospheric sulfate aerosols and polar stratospheric clouds. This model has been used to study the effects of the sulfate aerosol cloud formed by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 on stratospheric temperatures, dynamics, and chemistry. Aerosol extinctions and surface area densities were constrained by satellite observations and were used to compute the aerosol effects on radiative heating rates, photolysis rates, and heterogeneous chemistry. The net predicted perturbations to the column ozone amount were low-latitude depletions of 2-3% and northern and southern high-latitude depletions of 10-12%, in good agreement with observations. In the low latitudes a depletion of roughly 1-2% was due to the altered circulation (increased upwelling) resulting from the perturbation of the heating rates, with the heterogeneous chemistry and photolysis rate perturbations contributing roughly 0.5% each. In the high latitudes the computed ozone column depletions were mainly a result of heterogeneous chemistry occurring on the surfaces of the volcanic aerosol. Temperature anomalies predicted were a low-latitude warming peaking at 2.5 K in mid-1992 and high-latitude coolings of 1-2 K which were associated with the high-latitude ozone reductions. The sensitivity of the predicted perturbations to changes in the specification of the planetary wave forcings was examined. The maximum globally averaged column ozone depletions ranged from 2 to 4% for the cases studied.

A comparison of sources of odd nitrogen production from 1974 through 1993 in the Earth's middle atmosphere as calculated using a two‐dimensional model

The odd nitrogen source strengths associated with solar proton events (SPEs), galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), and the oxidation of nitrous oxide in the Earths middle atmosphere from 1974 through 1993 have been compared globally, at middle and lower latitudes ( 50 o) with a two-dimensional photochemical transport model. As discovered previously, the oxidation of nitrous oxide dominates the global odd nitrogen source, while GCRs and SPEs are significant at polar latitudes. The horizontal transport of odd nitrogen, produced by the oxidation of nitrous oxide at latitudes <50 o, was found to be the dominant source of odd nitrogen in the polar regions, with GCRs contributing substantially during the entire solar cycle. The source of odd nitrogen from SPEs was more sporadic; however, contributions during several years (mostly near solar maximum) were significant in the polar middle atmosphere.

Did a gamma-ray burst initiate the late Ordovician mass extinction?

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) produce a flux of radiation detectable across the observable Universe. A GRB within our own galaxy could do considerable damage to the Earths biosphere; rate estimates suggest that a dangerously near GRB should occur on average two or more times per billion years. At least five times in the history of life, the Earth has experienced mass extinctions that eliminated a large percentage of the biota. Many possible causes have been documented, and GRBs may also have contributed. The late Ordovician mass extinction approximately 440 million years ago may be at least partly the result of a GRB. A special feature of GRBs in terms of terrestrial effects is a nearly impulsive energy input of the order of 10 s. Due to expected severe depletion of the ozone layer, intense solar ultraviolet radiation would result from a nearby GRB, and some of the patterns of extinction and survivorship at this time may be attributable to elevated levels of UV radiation reaching the Earth. In addition, a GRB could trigger the global cooling which occurs at the end of the Ordovician period that follows an interval of relatively warm climate. Intense rapid cooling and glaciation at that time, previously identified as the probable cause of this mass extinction, may have resulted from a GRB.

Gamma-Ray Bursts and the Earth: Exploration of Atmospheric, Biological, Climatic, and Biogeochemical Effects

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are likely to have made a number of significant impacts on the Earth during the last billion years. The gamma radiation from a burst within a few kiloparsecs would quickly deplete much of the Earths protective ozone layer, allowing an increase in solar UVB radiation reaching the surface. This radiation is harmful to life, damaging DNA and causing sunburn. In addition, NO2 produced in the atmosphere would cause a decrease in visible sunlight reaching the surface and could cause global cooling. Nitric acid rain could stress portions of the biosphere, but the increased nitrate deposition could be helpful to land plants. We have used a two-dimensional atmospheric model to investigate the effects on the Earths atmosphere of GRBs delivering a range of fluences, at various latitudes, at the equinoxes and solstices, and at different times of day. We have estimated DNA damage levels caused by increased solar UVB radiation, reduction in solar visible light due to NO2 opacity, and deposition of nitrates through rainout of HNO3. For the typical nearest burst in the last billion years, we find globally averaged ozone depletion up to 38%. Localized depletion reaches as much as 74%. Significant global depletion (at least 10%) persists up to about 7 yr after the burst. Our results depend strongly on time of year and latitude over which the burst occurs. The impact scales with the total fluence of the GRB at the Earth but is insensitive to the time of day of the burst and its duration (1-1000 s). We find DNA damage of up to 16 times the normal annual global average, well above lethal levels for simple life forms such as phytoplankton. The greatest damage occurs at mid- to low latitudes. We find reductions in visible sunlight of a few percent, primarily in the polar regions. Nitrate deposition similar to or slightly greater than that currently caused by lightning is also observed, lasting several years. We discuss how these results support the hypothesis that the Late Ordovician mass extinction may have been initiated by a GRB.