Charles J. McAllister

Associations between Changes in Hemoglobin and Administered Erythropoiesis-Stimulating Agent and Survival in Hemodialysis Patients

Although treating anemia of chronic kidney disease by erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESA) may improve survival, most studies have examined associations between baseline hemoglobin values and survival and ignored variations in clinical and laboratory measures over time. It is not clear whether longitudinal changes in hemoglobin or administered ESA have meaningful associations with survival after adjustment for time-varying confounders. With the use of time-dependent Cox regression models, longitudinal associations were examined between survival and quarterly (13-wk averaged) hemoglobin values and administered ESA dose in a 2-yr (July 2001 to June 2003) cohort of 58,058 maintenance hemodialysis patients from a large dialysis organization (DaVita) in the United States. After time-dependent and multivariate adjustment for case mix, quarterly varying administered intravenous iron and ESA doses, iron markers, and nutritional status, hemoglobin levels between 12 and 13 g/dl were associated with the greatest survival. Among prevalent patients, the lower range of the recommended Kidney Disease Quality Outcomes Initiative hemoglobin target (11 to 11.5 g/dl) was associated with a higher death risk compared with the 11.5- to 12-g/dl range. A decrease or increase in hemoglobin over time was associated with higher or lower death risk, respectively, independent of baseline hemoglobin. Administration of any dose of ESA was associated with better survival, whereas among those who received ESA, requiring higher doses were surrogates of higher death risk. In this observational study, greater survival was associated with a baseline hemoglobin between 12 and 13 g/dl, treatment with ESA, and rising hemoglobin. Falling hemoglobin and requiring higher ESA doses were associated with decreased survival. Randomized clinical trials are required to examine these associations.

Effect of malnutrition-inflammation complex syndrome on EPO hyporesponsiveness in maintenance hemodialysis patients.

BACKGROUND Elements of malnutrition-inflammation complex syndrome (MICS) may blunt the responsiveness of anemia of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) to recombinant human erythropoietin (EPO). METHODS The authors examined cross-sectional associations between the required dose of EPO within a 13-week interval as prescribed by practicing nephrologists who were blind to the study and several laboratory values known to be related to nutrition and/or inflammation, as well as the malnutrition-inflammation score (MIS), which is a fully quantitative assessment tool based on the subjective global assessment of nutrition. RESULTS A total of 339 maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) outpatients, including 181 men, who were aged 54.7 +/- 14.5 years (mean +/- SD), who had undergone dialysis for 36.3 +/- 33.2 months, were selected randomly from 7 DaVita dialysis units in Los Angeles South/East Bay area. The average weekly dose of administered recombinant human EPO within a 13-week interval was 217 +/- 187 U/kg. Patients were receiving intravenous iron supplementation (iron gluconate or dextran) averaging 39.5 +/- 47.5 mg/wk. The MIS and serum concentrations of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, interleukin 6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and lactate dehydrogenase had positive correlation with required EPO dose and EPO responsiveness index (EPO divided by hemoglobin), whereas serum total iron binding capacity (TIBC), prealbumin and total cholesterol, as well as blood lymphocyte count had statistically significant but negative correlations with indices of refractory anemia. Most correlations remained significant even after multivariate adjustment for case-mix and anemia factors and other relevant covariates. Similar associations were noticed across EPO per body weight tertiles via analysis of variance and after estimating odds ratio for higher versus lower tertile via logistic regression after same case-mix adjustment. CONCLUSION The existence of elements of MICS as indicated by a high MIS and increased levels of proinflammatory cytokines such as IL-6 as well as decreased nutritional values such as low serum concentrations of total cholesterol, prealbumin, and TIBC correlates with EPO hyporesponsiveness in MHD patients.

Time-Dependent Associations between Iron and Mortality in Hemodialysis Patients

The independent association between the indices of iron stores or administered intravenous iron, both of which vary over time, and survival in patients who are on maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) is not clear. It was hypothesized that the observed associations between moderately high levels of three iron markers (serum ferritin, iron, and iron saturation ratio) or administered intravenous iron and all-cause and cardiovascular death is due to the time-varying confounding effect of malnutrition-inflammation-cachexia syndrome (MICS). Time-dependent Cox regression models were examined using prospectively collected data of the 2-yr (July 2001 to June 2003) historical cohort of 58,058 MHD patients from virtually all DaVita dialysis clinics in the United States. After time-dependent and multivariate adjustment for case mix, administered intravenous iron and erythropoietin doses, and available surrogates of MICS, serum ferritin levels between 200 and 1200 ng/ml (reference 100 to 199 ng/ml), serum iron levels between 60 and 120 microg/ml (reference 50 to 59 microg/ml), and iron saturation ratio between 30 and 50% (reference 45 to 50%) were associated with the lowest all-cause and cardiovascular death risks. Compared with those who did not receive intravenous iron, administered intravenous iron up to 400 mg/mo was associated with improved survival, whereas doses >400 mg/mo tended to be associated with higher death rates. The association between serum ferritin levels >800 ng/ml and mortality in MHD patients seems to be due mostly to the confounding effects of MICS. For ascertaining whether the observed associations between moderate doses of administered intravenous iron and improved survival are causal or due to selection bias by indication, clinical trials are warranted.

Reverse Epidemiology of Hypertension and Cardiovascular Death in the Hemodialysis Population: The 58th Annual Fall Conference and Scientific Sessions

Maintenance hemodialysis patients in the United States have a high prevalence (≈80%) of systolic hypertension and a high mortality (≈20% per year). Some reports indicate a paradoxical association between hypertension and morality in hemodialysis patients (ie, a normal to low blood pressure is associated with poor outcome), whereas high pressure confers survival advantages, a phenomenon referred to as “reverse epidemiology.” We hypothesized that malnutrition-inflammation complex syndrome may be a cause of this paradoxical association. We studied a 15-month cohort of 40 933 hemodialysis patients in the United States whose predialysis and postdialysis blood pressure values were recorded routinely during each hemodialysis treatment. Patients were 59.8±15.3 years old; 54% were women and 46% diabetics. Cox proportional hazard models were used for blood pressure categories (systolic <110, ≥190 mm Hg; diastolic <50, ≥110; and increments of 10 mm Hg in between). Unadjusted, case-mix and dialysis dose–adjusted, and additional malnutrition-inflammation–adjusted hazard ratios of all-cause and cardiovascular death showed progressively increasing all-cause and cardiovascular death risk for decreasing blood pressure values. The lowest mortality was associated with predialysis systolic pressure of 160 to 189 mm Hg, whereas normal to low predialysis pressure values were associated with significantly increased mortality. Adjustment for the malnutrition-inflammation mitigated only a small portion of paradoxical associations between the low blood pressure and mortality. Predialysis systolic hypertension remained a significant predictor of highest all-cause and cardiovascular survival rate. Although these associations may not be causal, they call into question whether treatment goals for the general population can be applied to dialysis patients or other similar populations.

Serum and Dialysate Potassium Concentrations and Survival in Hemodialysis Patients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Controlling serum potassium is an important goal in maintenance hemodialysis patients. We examined the achievement of potassium balance through hemodialysis treatments and the associated fluctuations in serum potassium. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS A 3-yr (July 2001 to June 2004) cohort of 81,013 maintenance hemodialysis patients from all DaVita dialysis clinics across the United States were studied. Nine quarterly-averaged serum potassium groups (< 4.0, > or = 6.3 mEq/L and seven increments in-between) and four dialysate potassium concentration groups were created in each of the 12 calendar quarters. The death risk associated with predialysis potassium level and dialysate potassium concentration was examined using unadjusted, case-mix adjusted, and malnutrition-inflammation-adjusted time-dependent survival models. RESULTS Serum potassium correlated with nutritional markers. Serum potassium between 4.6 and 5.3 mEq/L was associated with the greatest survival, whereas potassium < 4.0 or > or = 5.6 mEq/L was associated with increased mortality. The death risk of serum potassium > or = 5.6 mEq/L remained consistent after adjustments. Higher dialysate potassium concentration was associated with increased mortality in hyperkalemic patients with predialysis serum potassium > or = 5.0 mEq/L. CONCLUSIONS A predialysis serum potassium of 4.6 to 5.3 mEq/L is associated with the greatest survival in maintenance hemodialysis patients. Hyperkalemic patients who undergo maintenance hemodialysis against lower dialysate bath may have better survival. Limitations of observational studies including confounding by indication should be considered when interpreting these results.

Association between Serum Lipids and Survival in Hemodialysis Patients and Impact of Race

Despite the enormous cardiovascular disease epidemic among maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients, total hypercholesterolemia seems paradoxically to be associated with better survival. It was hypothesized that similar paradoxic associations also exist for serum LDL, HDL, and triglycerides. A 3-yr (July 2001 through June 2004) cohort of 15,859 MHD patients was studied in the United States from DaVita dialysis clinics where lipid profile was measured in at least 50% of all outpatients during a given calendar quarter. Cox proportional hazard models were adjusted for case mix and surrogates of malnutrition-inflammation complex. Both total and LDL hypercholesterolemia showed a paradoxic association with better survival. Hypertriglyceridemia (>200 mg/dl) also showed a similar trend, but serum HDL cholesterol did not have any clear association with survival. The association between a low serum LDL <70 mg/dl, which was prevalent among almost 50% of all MHD patients, and a higher all-cause death risk was robust to multivariate adjustment. In the subgroup analyses, these paradoxic associations persisted among most subgroups, although they tended to be stronger among hypoalbuminemic (<3.8 mg/dl) patients and those with a lower dietary protein intake (<1 g/kg per d). However, in black patients, a high serum LDL (>100 mg/ml) was associated with adjusted cardiovascular death hazard ratio of 1.94 (95% confidence interval 1.12 to 2.38; P = 0.02). Despite inverse associations between hyperlipidemia and survival, black MHD patients with high LDL show almost two-fold increase in cardiovascular death risk. Although these associations may not be causal, they call into question whether specific subgroups of dialysis patients are better targets for cholesterol-lowering therapy.

A Low, Rather than a High, Total Plasma Homocysteine Is an Indicator of Poor Outcome in Hemodialysis Patients

An increased level of total plasma homocysteine (tHcy) is a risk factor for poor cardiovascular outcome in the general population. However, a decreased, rather than an increased, tHcy concentration may predict poor outcome in maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients, a phenomenon referred to as reverse epidemiology. Associations were examined between tHcy level and markers of malnutrition-inflammation complex syndrome and 12-mo prospective hospitalization and mortality in 367 MHD patients, aged 54.5 +/- 14.7 (mean +/- SD) years, who included 199 men and 55% individuals with diabetes. tHcy was 24.4 +/- 11.8 micro mol/L, and 94% of the patients had hyperhomocysteinemia (tHcy >13.5 micro mol/L). tHcy had weak to moderate but statistically significant bivariate and multivariate correlations with some laboratory markers of nutrition (serum albumin, prealbumin, creatinine, and urea nitrogen) but no significant correlation with serum C-reactive protein or two proinflammatory cytokines (IL-6 and TNF-alpha). During 12 mo of follow-up, 191 MHD patients were hospitalized, 37 died, nine underwent renal transplantation, and 38 transferred out. Hospitalization rates were significantly higher in patients with lower tHcy levels. Mortality rate in the lowest tHcy quartile (17.4%) was significantly higher compared with other three quartiles (6.5 to 9.8%; Kaplan-Meier P = 0.04). Relative risk of death for the lowest tHcy quartile, even after adjustment for case-mix and serum albumin, was 2.27 (95% confidence interval, 1.14 to 4.53; P = 0.02). Hence, tHcy may be a more exclusive nutritional marker in MHD patients with no association with inflammatory measures. Despite a very high prevalence of hyperhomocysteinemia in MHD patients, lower values of tHcy are paradoxically associated with increased hospitalization and mortality. The lowest tHcy quartile confers a twofold increase in risk of death independent of hypoalbuminemia. The nutritional feature of tHcy in MHD patients may explain its reverse association with outcome.

Serum Alkaline Phosphatase Predicts Mortality among Maintenance Hemodialysis Patients

Several observational studies have demonstrated that serum levels of minerals and parathyroid hormone (PTH) have U- or J-shaped associations with mortality in maintenance hemodialysis patients, but the relationship between serum alkaline phosphatase (AlkPhos) and risk for all-cause or cardiovascular death is unknown. In this study, a 3-yr cohort of 73,960 hemodialysis patients in DaVita outpatient dialysis were studied, and the hazard ratios for all-cause and cardiovascular death were higher across 20-U/L increments of AlkPhos, including within the various strata of intact PTH and serum aspartate aminotransferase. In the fully adjusted model, which accounted for demographics, comorbidity, surrogates of malnutrition and inflammation, minerals, PTH, and aspartate aminotransferase, AlkPhos > or =120 U/L was associated with a hazard ratio for death of 1.25 (95% confidence interval 1.21 to 1.29; P < 0.001). This association remained among diverse subgroups of hemodialysis patients, including those positive for hepatitis C antibody. A rise in AlkPhos by 10 U/L during the first 6 mo was incrementally associated with increased risk for death during the subsequent 2.5 yr. In summary, high levels of serum AlkPhos, especially >120 U/L, are associated with mortality among hemodialysis patients. Prospective controlled trials will be necessary to test whether serum AlkPhos measurements could be used to improve the management of renal osteodystrophy.

Hepatitis C virus and death risk in hemodialysis patients.

In maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is common and may be associated with poor clinical outcomes. It was hypothesized that HCV infection would be associated with high all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in these patients after controlling for demographic and clinical characteristics, including surrogates of malnutrition-inflammation complex syndrome. A national database of 13,664 MHD patients who underwent HCV antibody serology testing at least once during a 3-yr interval (July 2001 through June 2004) was analyzed. Measurements included third-generation HCV enzyme immunoassay and routine laboratory measurements. The HCV enzyme immunoassay was reported positive in 1590 (12%) patients. In logistic regression models that included case mix and available surrogates of malnutrition-inflammation complex syndrome, HCV infection was associated with younger age, male gender, black race, Hispanic ethnicity, Medicaid insurance, longer dialysis vintage (duration), unmarried status, HIV infection, and smoking history. In proportional-hazards regressions, the mortality hazard ratio that was associated with HCV infection was 1.25 (95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.39; P < 0.001). Mortality hazards were higher among incident (dialysis duration <6 mo) than prevalent HD patients. Subgroup analyses indicated that HCV was associated with higher all-cause and cardiovascular mortality across almost all clinical, demographic, and laboratory groups of patients. Hence, in MHD patients, HCV infection exhibits distinct demographic, clinical, and laboratory patterns, including associations with higher dialysis treatment vintage, and is associated with higher mortality. More diligent efforts to prevent and treat HCV infection may improve outcomes in MHD patients.

Erythropoietin, iron depletion, and relative thrombocytosis: a possible explanation for hemoglobin-survival paradox in hemodialysis.

BACKGROUND High doses of human recombinant erythropoietin (rHuEPO) to achieve hemoglobin levels greater than 13 g/dL in patients with chronic kidney disease appear to be associated with increased mortality. STUDY DESIGN We conducted logistic regression and survival analyses in a retrospective cohort of long-term hemodialysis patients to examine the hypothesis that the induced iron depletion with resultant relative thrombocytosis may be a possible contributor to the link between the high rHuEPO dose-associated hemoglobin level of 13 g/dL or greater and mortality. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS The national database of a large dialysis organization (DaVita) with 40,787 long-term hemodialysis patients during July to December 2001 and their survival up to July 2004 were examined. PREDICTORS Hemoglobin level, platelet count, and administered rHuEPO dose during each calendar quarter. OUTCOMES & OTHER MEASUREMENTS Case-mix-adjusted 3-year all-cause mortality and measures of iron stores, including serum ferritin and iron saturation ratio. RESULTS Higher platelet count was associated with lower iron stores and greater prescribed rHuEPO dose. Compared with a hemoglobin level of 12 to 13 g/dL, a hemoglobin level of 13 g/dL or greater was associated with increased mortality in the presence of relative thrombocytosis, ie, platelet count of 300,000/microL or greater (case-mix-adjusted death-rate ratio, 1.21; 95% confidence limits, 1.02 to 1.44; P = 0.03) as opposed to the absence of relative thrombocytosis (death-rate ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence limits, 0.98 to 1.08; P = 0.1). A prescribed rHuEPO dose greater than 20,000 U/wk was associated with a greater likelihood of iron depletion (iron saturation ratio < 20%) and relative thrombocytosis (case-mix-adjusted odds ratio, 2.53; 95% confidence limits, 2.37 to 2.69; and 1.36; 95% confidence limits, 1.30 to 1.42, respectively; P < 0.001) and increased mortality during 3 years (death-rate ratio, 1.59; 95% confidence limits, 1.54 to 1.65; P < 0.001). LIMITATIONS Our results may incorporate uncontrolled confounding. Achieved hemoglobin level may have different mortality predictability than targeted hemoglobin level. CONCLUSIONS Iron depletion and associated relative thrombocytosis might contribute to increased mortality when administering high rHuEPO doses to achieve hemoglobin levels of 13 g/dL or greater in long-term hemodialysis patients. Randomized trials are needed to test these observational associations.