Charles M. Becker

Demographic change in the former Soviet Union during the transition period

Abstract This paper examines patterns of mortality and other demographic changes across the former Soviet Union. Using regional data from the early 1990s, a simultaneous equations model of fertility, marriage, divorce, infant mortality and abortion is estimated as a function of economic and social variables. The paper then looks at determinants of life expectancy and specific causes of death. Demographic scenarios are then forecast on the basis of specific economic environments; these forecasts in turn are used to forecast life expectancies in the coming decades. In plausible environments, there is little reason to anticipate a rapid recovery in male or female life expectancies, while further declines in fertility appear imminent.

The demographic crisis in the former Soviet Union: Introduction

This special issue contains 11 papers on the structure causes and consequences of the demographic crisis that occurred in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe during the period 1990-1995. These papers were selected from those presented at a conference held at the Harvard Institute for International Development in January 1998. The primary focus is on the decline in life expectancy. (ANNOTATION)

The demo-economic impact of the AIDS pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Abstract This paper examines the available data on the incidence and spread of AIDS and the associated human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Africa. Assessments of the impact of the spread of AIDS on African population growth and economic performance are then offered. The interactions with present economic and public health policy receive particular attention. The paper stresses continued emphasis on rural development and greater efforts to control other sexually transmitted diseases along with increased promotion of condoms as means of slowing the spread of AIDS.

The Determinants of Urban Population Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Africas urban population is grouwing at an extremely high and possibly accelerating rate but urbanization does not appear to have been accompanied by the structural transformation associated with urban growth both in historical studies and in theoretical models from economic demography. This paper examines the empirical performance of a model of a stereotypical African economy that incorporates many of the stylized facts from the development literature factors of rural to urban migration. The model is tested against a cross-country sample of African nations. Further data improvements are needed but 2 findings stand out from the others: 1st only 8% of the variation in the African urban population growth rates can be explained by employment growth rates in the urban-modern sector; and 2nd that government policies are important--specifically policies designed to promote rural growth. Such policies depress urban growth rates considerably by reducing those forces which push people from rural areas.

Maternal care vs. economic wealth and the health of newborns: Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic and Kansas City, USA

Abstract This paper focuses on a narrow aspect of the demographic and health crisis in the former Soviet Union, examining the extent to which maternal behavior can compensate for poverty and poor medical conditions. Using sister hospital data form Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan and Kansas City, USA covering nearly 1,500 live births, the paper finds that Kyrgyzstani women are partially successful in compensating by taking better care of themselves and their newborn children. Moreover, ethnicity within Kyrgyzstan has no apparent impact on maternal behavior. Careful behavior, however, does not remove all disadvantages, and targeted interventions are still greatly needed.

Modeling Indian migration and city growth 1960-2000.

Indian city employment growth experience since 1960 offers some sharp contrasts with most developing countries. For most developing countries city employment growth and immigration rates rose across the 1960s reaching a peak in 1973-1974. India however reached a peak in the early 1960s undergoing a city growth slowdown thereafter. As a result the overall rate of city growth was somewhat slower in India. Conventional wisdom claims that Indian overurbanization has resulted from 1) manufacturings very poor productivity performance after the successes of the early 1960s; and 2) land scarcity in the countryside pushing labor into the cities where they are faced with limited employment opportunities. This paper applies a computable general equilibrium model to the Indian development experience since 1960. Results show that 1) a good share of the lower rates of city growth in India can be explained by the lower rates of labor force growth compared with much of Asia and Latin America; 2) while changing world market conditions did contribute to the city employment growth slowdown they were not a very important source of the slowdown; and 3) arable land scarcity played only a trivial role in Indian city growth experience. The 2 main forces which explain city employment slowdown are 1) productivity slowdown in manufacturing and 2) foreign capital inflows.

Economic Sanctions against South Africa

In this paper, I shall dispute the widely held belief that all effective sanctions would greatly hurt poor South African blacks. Rather, it is likely that bans on exports of high technology to South Africa and imports of South African gold and diamonds would cause labor-intensive sectors to expand, thereby limiting the impact of a general recession on unskilled nonwhites. Still, several types of sanctions, such as those on oil, would have a severe impact on poor nonwhites. In addition, forced divestment would result in windfall capital gains for white South Africans; such gains would not be realized, however, if the ban were on new investments only. Finally, I shall discuss the need for infrastructural aid to help South Africas neighbors weather the storm. Judicious aid to these countries is also important in inducing both Western and South Africanowned investments away from South Africa.

Urbanization and Rural–Urban Migration

This chapter considers the literature on urbanization and migration to cities from rural areas in developing and middle-income countries. The chapter assesses recent patterns, discusses traditional models, addresses more recent models of migration, presents some of the recent findings from the micro-econometric literature, and closes with a discussion of the role of cities in economic growth. Corresponding author: Charles Becker, Department of Economics, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708-0097 USA; cbecker@econ.duke.edu

Pension burdens and labor force participation in Kazakstan

Abstract This paper examines the pressures imposed by the vast pension system in the former Soviet republic of Kazakstan. Today, some 17% of the country receives pension payments, one of the highest rates in the world — despite the fact that Kazakstan is only now completing its demographic transition. Using a pooled regional-time series data set from pre- and post-Soviet eras, the paper also examines determinants of pension populations and the labor force participation rate. It finds that Kazakstanis in the post-Soviet era respond to price incentives both with respect to real pensions and real wage rates — in stark contrast to dramatically backward-bending labor supply curves of the Soviet era.

Short-Term Migration Responses of Women and Men during Economic Turmoil: Lessons from Kazakhstan

A team of population specialists from the United States and Kazakhstan uses heretofore unpublished data of the Kazakhstan Statistical Agency to assess gender and age differences in the propensity to migrate from Kazakhstan for the period 1991-2001. The interstate character of the population movements analyzed means that Slavic, German, and other non-Kazakh ethnic groups are disproportionately represented among the emigrant population, but the key focus is on identifying the differing migration responses of men and women during economic crisis, in this case the precipitous decline in economic activity following the dissolution of the USSR. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F22, J61, O15. 2 figures, 4 tables, 21 references.