David E. Bloom

Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa*

This paper presents the effects of climate, topography, and natural ecology on public health, nutrition, demographics, technological diffusion, international trade and other determinants of economic development in Africa. The goal of this paper is to emphasize the need for intensified research on the issues at the intersection of ecology and human society. Geography was given emphasis because of three reasons: the minimal gain from another recitation of the damage caused by statism, protectionism and corruption to African economic performance; negligence of the role of natural forces in shaping economic performance; and tailoring of policies to geographical realities. The paper also discusses the general problems of tropical development and the focus of Africas problems in worldwide tropical perspectives; demographic trends in Africa; use of standard cross-country growth equations with demographic and geographic variables, to account for the relative roles of geography; and the future growth strategies and the need for urban-based export growth in manufacturing and services. Lastly, the authors provide a summary of conclusions and discuss the agenda for future research.

Chromosomal Breakage in a Rare and Probably Genetically Determined Syndrome of Man

A high frequency of chromosomal breakage and rearrangement has been found in cultured blood cells from six of seven individuals with a rare syndrome characterized by congenital telangiectatic erythema and stunted growth. Only 19 instances of this apparently genetically determined disorder are known, and malignant neoplasia has developed in three.

Longevity and Life-cycle Savings

We add health and longevity to a standard model of life cycle saving and show that, under plausible assumptions, increases in longevity lead to higher savings rates at every age, even when retirement is endogenous. In a stable population these higher savings rates are offset by increased old age dependency, but during the disequilibrium phase, when longevity is rising, the effect on aggregate savings rates can be substantial. Our results explain the boom in savings in East Asia during 1950-90 as a combination of rising life expectancy and falling youth dependency, though they predict that savings in the region will return to more normal levels as populations age. We also find that falling life expectancies in Africa are associated with declining savings rates.

The Value of Vaccination

Vaccination is most often studied from a scientific, clinical, or epidemiological perspective, and rightly so, for vaccines are meant to improve health outcomes. But these are not the only lenses through which the effects of vaccination programs can be understood. This chapter provides an economic perspective on vaccination programs, detailing in particular a new line of inquiry that makes a case for the importance of vaccination to achieving national economic aims. Research has shown that national spending on childhood vaccination programs does more than just reduce morbidity and mortality in a country: it also promotes national economic growth and poverty reduction. The chapter begins with a look at recent research that demonstrates powerful links that run from population health to economic well-being. Second, it discusses how knowledge of the economic benefits of health fundamentally transforms how we understand the value of vaccination. And third, it provides evidence for the scale of the returns that countries receive when they invest in immunization programs - returns that have not been fully captured by traditional economic analyses.

Geography and Poverty Traps

We test the view that the large differences in income levels we see across the world are due to differences in the intrinsic geography of each country against the alternative view that there are poverty traps. We reject simple geographic determinism in favor of a poverty trap model with high- and low-level equilibria. The high-level equilibrium state is found to be the same for all countries while income in the low-level equilibrium, and the probability of being in the high-level equilibrium, are greater in cool, coastal countries with high, year-round, rainfall.

Commitment and the modern union: Assessing the link between premarital cohabitation and subsequent marital stability.

In recent years, the incidence of premarital cohabitation has increased dramatically in many countries of Western Europe and in the United States. As cohabitation becomes a more common experience, it is increasingly important to understand the links between cohabitation and other steps in the process of family formation and dissolution. We focus on the relationship between pre- marital cohabitation and subsequent marital stability, and analyze data from the 1981 Women in Sweden survey using a hazards model approach. Our results indicate that women who premaritally cohabit have almost 80 percent higher marital dissolution rates than those who do not cohabit. Women who cohabit for over three years prior to marriage have over 50 percent higher dissolution rates than women who cohabit for shorter durations. Last, cohabitors and non-cohabitors whose marriages have remained intact for eight years appear to have identical dissolution rates after that time. In addition, we provide evidence that strongly suggests a weaker commitment, on the part of those who cohabit premaritally, to the institution of marriage.

The Divergence of Black and White Marriage Patterns

This article examines the patterns and determinants of first marriage among black and white women in the United States. Three major differences exist between the first-marriage patterns of black and white women: (1) lower proportions of blacks marry than whites; (2) the proportion of women who ever marry has declined substantially across cohorts for blacks but modestly across cohorts for whites; and (3) while increased education is associated negatively, if slightly, with the probability of ever marrying among whites, it is associated positively among blacks. The observed racial divergence is consistent with three factors experienced differentially by blacks and whits: the marriage squeeze, labor-market success, and out-of-wedlock childbearing. Given the traditional age differences between spouses, there are far fewer eligible male mates for black women than for white women among cohorts born before the late 1950s. For both blacks and whites, employment status is positively associated with the propensity to marry, but for young blacks the labor-market situation is generally poor and has deteriorated significantly across time in comparison with other groups. Finally, having an out-of-wedlock child at an early age is strongly negatively associated with the likelihood that a woman will ultimately marry.

Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth

Abstract This study examines the claim that the AIDS epidemic will slow the pace of economic growth. We do this by examining the association, across 51 developing and industrial countries for which we were able to assemble data, between changes in the prevalence of AIDS and the rate of growth of GDP per capita. Our analysis uses well-established empirical growth equations to control for a variety of factors possibly correlated with AIDS prevalence that might also influence growth. We also account for possible simultaneity in the relationship between AIDS and economic growth. Our main finding is that the AIDS epidemic has had an insignificant effect on the growth rate of per capita income, with no evidence of reverse causality.

7 Billion and Counting

The world is currently in the midst of the greatest demographic upheaval in human history. Dramatic reductions in mortality, followed (but with a lag) by equally marked reductions in fertility, resulted in a doubling of world population between 1960 and 2000. A further increase of 2 to 4.5 billion is projected for the current half-century, with the increase concentrated in the world’s least developed countries. Despite alarmist predictions, historical increases in population have not been economically catastrophic. Moreover, changes in population age structure have opened the door to increased prosperity. Demographic changes have had and will continue to have profound repercussions for human well-being and progress, with some possibilities for mediating those repercussions through policy intervention.

Urbanization and the Wealth of Nations

The proportion of a countrys population living in urban areas is highly correlated with its level of income. Urban areas offer economies of scale and richer market structures, and there is strong evidence that workers in urban areas are individually more productive, and earn more, than rural workers. However, rapid urbanization is also associated with crowding, environmental degradation, and other impediments to productivity. Overall, we find no evidence that the level of urbanization affects the rate of economic growth. Our findings weaken the rationale for either encouraging or discouraging urbanization as part of a strategy for economic growth.