Charlie Qiu

Fast Prediction for Sparse Time Series: Demand Forecast of EV Charging Stations for Cell Phone Applications

This paper proposes a new cellphone application algorithm which has been implemented for the prediction of energy consumption at electric vehicle (EV) charging stations at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). For this interactive user application, the total time for accessing the database, processing the data, and making the prediction needs to be within a few seconds. We first analyze three relatively fast machine learning-based time series prediction algorithms and find that the nearest neighbor (NN) algorithm (k NN with k = 1) shows better accuracy. Considering the sparseness of the time series of the charging records, we then discuss the new algorithm based on the new proposed time-weighted dot product (TWDP) dissimilarity measure to improve the accuracy and processing time. Two applications have been designed on top of the proposed prediction algorithm: one predicts the expected available energy at the outlet and the other one predicts the expected charging finishing time. The total time, including accessing the database, data processing, and prediction is approximately 1 s for both applications. The granularity of the prediction is 1 h and the horizon is 24 h; data have been collected from 20 EV charging outlets.

Fast demand forecast of Electric Vehicle Charging Stations for cell phone application

This paper describes the core cellphone application algorithm which has been implemented for the prediction of energy consumption at Electric Vehicle (EV) Charging Stations at UCLA. For this interactive user application, the total time of accessing database, processing the data and making the prediction, needs to be within a few seconds. We analyze four relatively fast Machine Learning based time series prediction algorithms for our prediction engine: Historical Average, k-Nearest Neighbor, Weighted k-Nearest Neighbor, and Lazy Learning. The Nearest Neighbor algorithm (k Nearest Neighbor with k=1) shows better performance and is selected to be the prediction algorithm implemented for the cellphone application. Two applications have been designed on top of the prediction algorithm: one predicts the expected available energy at the station and the other one predicts the expected charging finishing time. The total time, including accessing the database, data processing, and prediction is about one second for both applications.

Modified pattern sequence-based forecasting for electric vehicle charging stations

Three algorithms for the forecasting of energy consumption at individual EV charging outlets have been applied to real world data from the UCLA campus. Out of these three algorithms, namely k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN), ARIMA, and Pattern Sequence Forecasting (PSF), kNN with k=1, was the best and PSF was the worst performing algorithm with respect to the SMAPE measure. The advantage of PSF is its increased robustness to noise by substituting the real valued time series with an integer valued one, and the advantage of NN is having the least SMAPE for our data. We propose a Modified PSF algorithm (MPSF) which is a combination of PSF and NN; it could be interpreted as NN on integer valued data or as PSF with considering only the most recent neighbor to produce the output. Some other shortcomings of PSF are also addressed in the MPSF. Results show that MPSF has improved the forecast performance.

Design of RFID mesh network for Electric Vehicle smart charging infrastructure

With an increased number of Electric Vehicles (EVs) on the roads, charging infrastructure is gaining an ever-more important role in simultaneously meeting the needs of the local distribution grid and of EV users. This paper proposes a mesh network RFID system for user identification and charging authorization as part of a smart charging infrastructure providing charge monitoring and control. The Zigbee-based mesh network RFID provides a cost-efficient solution to identify and authorize vehicles for charging and would allow EV charging to be conducted effectively while observing grid constraints and meeting the needs of EV drivers.

Smart electric vehicle charging infrastructure overview

WINSmartEV™ is a smart electric vehicle charging system that has been built and is currently in operation. It is a software and network based EV charging system designed and built around the ideas of intelligent charge scheduling, multiplexing (connecting multiple vehicles to each circuit) and flexibility. This paper gives an overview of this smart charging system with an eye toward its unique features and capabilities.

Safety design for smart Electric Vehicle charging with current and multiplexing control

As Electric Vehicles (EVs) increase, charging infrastructure becomes more important. When during the day there is a power shortage, the charging infrastructure should have the options to either shut off the power to the charging stations or to lower the power to the EVs in order to satisfy the needs of the grid. This paper proposes a design for a smart charging infrastructure capable of providing power to several EVs from one circuit by multiplexing power and providing charge control and safety systems to prevent electric shock. The safety design is implemented in different levels that include both the server and the smart charging stations. With this smart charging infrastructure, the shortage of energy in a local grid could be solved by our EV charging management system.

Design of fair charging algorithm for smart electrical vehicle charging infrastructure

Smart charging infrastructure is required to meet the growing demand for Electrical Vehicle (EV) charging from ever more abundant EV owners. WINSmartEV™ is a software based smart charging infrastructure that can monitor, control and manage EV charging. It also can use multiplexing to share scarce charging resources among different EVs plugged in simultaneously. By default WINSmartEV™ uses a round-robin algorithm to schedule charging time between EVs charging on the 120V level one charging device. In order to enhance user acceptance of this technology, charge time allocation fairness is defined and an algorithm to enhance this fairness is proposed.

Predictive scheduling for Electric Vehicles considering uncertainty of load and user behaviors

Un-coordinated Electric Vehicle (EV) charging can create unexpected load in local distribution grid, which may degrade the power quality and system reliability. The uncertainty of EV load, user behaviors and other baseload in distribution grid, is one of challenges that impedes optimal control for EV charging problem. Previous researches did not fully solve this problem due to lack of real-world EV charging data and proper stochastic model to describe these behaviors. In this paper, we propose a new predictive EV scheduling algorithm (PESA) inspired by Model Predictive Control (MPC), which includes a dynamic load estimation module and a predictive optimization module. The user-related EV load and base load are dynamically estimated based on the historical data. At each time interval, the predictive optimization program will be computed for optimal schedules given the estimated parameters. Only the first element from the algorithm outputs will be implemented according to MPC paradigm. Current-multiplexing function in each Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) is considered and accordingly a virtual load is modeled to handle the uncertainties of future EV energy demands. This system is validated by the real-world EV charging data collected on UCLA campus and the experimental results indicate that our proposed model not only reduces load variation up to 40% but also maintains a high level of robustness. Finally, IEC 61850 standard is utilized to standardize the data models involved, which brings significance to more reliable and large-scale implementation.

Predictive Scheduling Framework for Electric Vehicles Considering Uncertainties of User Behaviors

The randomness of user behaviors plays a significant role in electric vehicle (EV) scheduling problems, especially when the power supply for EV supply equipment (EVSE) is limited. Existing EV scheduling methods do not consider this limitation and assume charging session parameters, such as stay duration and energy demand values, are perfectly known, which is not realistic in practice. In this paper, based on real-world implementations of networked EVSEs on University of California at Los Angeles campus, we developed a predictive scheduling framework, including a predictive control paradigm and a kernel-based session parameter estimator. Specifically, the scheduling service periodically computes for cost-efficient solutions, considering the predicted session parameters, by the adaptive kernel-based estimator with improved estimation accuracies. We also consider the power sharing strategy of existing EVSEs and formulate the virtual load constraint to handle the future EV arrivals with unexpected energy demand. To validate the proposed framework, 20-fold cross validation is performed on the historical dataset of charging behaviors for over one-year period. The simulation results demonstrate that average unit energy cost per kWh can be reduced by 29.42% with the proposed scheduling framework and 66.71% by further integrating solar generations with the given capacity, after the initial infrastructure investment. The effectiveness of kernel-based estimator, virtual load constraint, and event-based control scheme are also discussed in detail.

A novel forecasting algorithm for electric vehicle charging stations

In this paper, a recently proposed time series forecasting algorithm, Modified Pattern-based Sequence Forecasting (MPSF), is compared with three other algorithms. These algorithms have been applied to predict energy consumption at individual EV charging outlets using real world data from the UCLA campus. Two of these algorithms, namely MPSF and k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN), are relatively fast and structurally less complex. The other two, Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Random Forest (RF), are more complex and hence require more time to generate the forecast. Out of these four algorithms, kNN with k=1 turns out to be the fastest, MPSF and SVR were the most accurate with respect to different error measures, and RF provides us with an importance computing scheme for our input variables. Selecting the appropriate algorithm for an application depends on the tradeoff between accuracy and computational time; however, considering all factors together (two different error measures and algorithm speed), MPSF gives reasonably accurate predictions with much less computations than NN, SVR and RF for our application.