Charlotte F Davies

Impact of Opioid Substitution Therapy on Antiretroviral Therapy Outcomes: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

This meta-analysis provides strong evidence that opioid substitution therapy improves several key outcomes of the HIV care continuum among people who inject drugs, including recruitment onto antiretroviral therapy, retention in care, adherence, and viral suppression.

Effect of a low-intensity psa-based screening intervention on prostate cancer mortality : The CAP randomized clinical trial

Importance Prostate cancer screening remains controversial because potential mortality or quality-of-life benefits may be outweighed by harms from overdetection and overtreatment. Objective To evaluate the effect of a single prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening intervention and standardized diagnostic pathway on prostate cancer–specific mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants The Cluster Randomized Trial of PSA Testing for Prostate Cancer (CAP) included 419 582 men aged 50 to 69 years and was conducted at 573 primary care practices across the United Kingdom. Randomization and recruitment of the practices occurred between 2001 and 2009; patient follow-up ended on March 31, 2016. Intervention An invitation to attend a PSA testing clinic and receive a single PSA test vs standard (unscreened) practice. Main Outcomes and Measures Primary outcome: prostate cancer–specific mortality at a median follow-up of 10 years. Prespecified secondary outcomes: diagnostic cancer stage and Gleason grade (range, 2-10; higher scores indicate a poorer prognosis) of prostate cancers identified, all-cause mortality, and an instrumental variable analysis estimating the causal effect of attending the PSA screening clinic. Results Among 415 357 randomized men (mean [SD] age, 59.0 [5.6] years), 189 386 in the intervention group and 219 439 in the control group were included in the analysis (n = 408 825; 98%). In the intervention group, 75 707 (40%) attended the PSA testing clinic and 67 313 (36%) underwent PSA testing. Of 64 436 with a valid PSA test result, 6857 (11%) had a PSA level between 3 ng/mL and 19.9 ng/mL, of whom 5850 (85%) had a prostate biopsy. After a median follow-up of 10 years, 549 (0.30 per 1000 person-years) died of prostate cancer in the intervention group vs 647 (0.31 per 1000 person-years) in the control group (rate difference, −0.013 per 1000 person-years [95% CI, −0.047 to 0.022]; rate ratio [RR], 0.96 [95% CI, 0.85 to 1.08]; P = .50). The number diagnosed with prostate cancer was higher in the intervention group (n = 8054; 4.3%) than in the control group (n = 7853; 3.6%) (RR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.14 to 1.25]; P < .001). More prostate cancer tumors with a Gleason grade of 6 or lower were identified in the intervention group (n = 3263/189 386 [1.7%]) than in the control group (n = 2440/219 439 [1.1%]) (difference per 1000 men, 6.11 [95% CI, 5.38 to 6.84]; P < .001). In the analysis of all-cause mortality, there were 25 459 deaths in the intervention group vs 28 306 deaths in the control group (RR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.94 to 1.03]; P = .49). In the instrumental variable analysis for prostate cancer mortality, the adherence-adjusted causal RR was 0.93 (95% CI, 0.67 to 1.29; P = .66). Conclusions and Relevance Among practices randomized to a single PSA screening intervention vs standard practice without screening, there was no significant difference in prostate cancer mortality after a median follow-up of 10 years but the detection of low-risk prostate cancer cases increased. Although longer-term follow-up is under way, the findings do not support single PSA testing for population-based screening. Trial Registration ISRCTN Identifier: ISRCTN92187251

Design and preliminary recruitment results of the Cluster randomised triAl of PSA testing for Prostate cancer (CAP)

Background:Screening for prostate cancer continues to generate controversy because of concerns about over-diagnosis and unnecessary treatment. We describe the rationale, design and recruitment of the Cluster randomised triAl of PSA testing for Prostate cancer (CAP) trial, a UK-wide cluster randomised controlled trial investigating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing.Methods:Seven hundred and eighty-five general practitioner (GP) practices in England and Wales were randomised to a population-based PSA testing or standard care and then approached for consent to participate. In the intervention arm, men aged 50–69 years were invited to undergo PSA testing, and those diagnosed with localised prostate cancer were invited into a treatment trial. Control arm practices undertook standard UK management. All men were flagged with the Health and Social Care Information Centre for deaths and cancer registrations. The primary outcome is prostate cancer mortality at a median 10-year-follow-up.Results:Among randomised practices, 271 (68%) in the intervention arm (198 114 men) and 302 (78%) in the control arm (221 929 men) consented to participate, meeting pre-specified power requirements. There was little evidence of differences between trial arms in measured baseline characteristics of the consenting GP practices (or men within those practices).Conclusions:The CAP trial successfully met its recruitment targets and will make an important contribution to international understanding of PSA-based prostate cancer screening.

Clinical and cognitive characteristics of children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, with and without copy number variants

Background Submicroscopic, rare chromosomal copy number variants (CNVs) contribute to neurodevelopmental disorders but it is not known whether they define atypical clinical cases. Aims To identify whether large, rare CNVs in attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are confined to a distinct clinical subgroup. Method A total of 567 children with ADHD aged 5–17 years were recruited from community clinics. Psychopathology was assessed using the Child and Adolescent Psychiatric Assessment. Large, rare CNVs (>500 kb, <1% frequency) were defined from single nucleotide polymorphism data. Results Copy number variant carriers (13.6%) showed no differences from non-carriers in ADHD symptom severity, symptom type, comorbidity, developmental features, family history or pre-/perinatal markers. The only significant difference was a higher rate of intellectual disability (24% v. 9%, χ2 = 15.5, P = 0.001). Most CNV carriers did not have intellectual disability. Conclusions Large, rare CNVs are not restricted to an atypical form of ADHD but may be more highly enriched in children with cognitive problems.

Contemporary accuracy of death certificates for coding prostate cancer as a cause of death: Is reliance on death certification good enough? A comparison with blinded review by an independent cause of death evaluation committee

Background:Accurate cause of death assignment is crucial for prostate cancer epidemiology and trials reporting prostate cancer-specific mortality outcomes.Methods:We compared death certificate information with independent cause of death evaluation by an expert committee within a prostate cancer trial (2002–2015).Results:Of 1236 deaths assessed, expert committee evaluation attributed 523 (42%) to prostate cancer, agreeing with death certificate cause of death in 1134 cases (92%, 95% CI: 90%, 93%). The sensitivity of death certificates in identifying prostate cancer deaths as classified by the committee was 91% (95% CI: 89%, 94%); specificity was 92% (95% CI: 90%, 94%). Sensitivity and specificity were lower where death occurred within 1 year of diagnosis, and where there was another primary cancer diagnosis.Conclusions:UK death certificates accurately identify cause of death in men with prostate cancer, supporting their use in routine statistics. Possible differential misattribution by trial arm supports independent evaluation in randomised trials.

Standardisation of information submitted to an endpoint committee for cause of death assignment in a cancer screening trial – lessons learnt from CAP (Cluster randomised triAl of PSA testing for Prostate cancer)

BackgroundIn cancer screening trials where the primary outcome is target cancer-specific mortality, the unbiased determination of underlying cause of death (UCD) is crucial. To minimise bias, the UCD should be independently verified by expert reviewers, blinded to death certificate data and trial arm. We investigated whether standardising the information submitted for UCD assignment in a population-based randomised controlled trial of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing for prostate cancer reduced the reviewers’ ability to correctly guess the trial arm.MethodsOver 550 General Practitioner (GP) practices (>415,000 men aged 50–69 years) were cluster-randomised to PSA testing (intervention arm) or the National Health Service (NHS) prostate cancer risk management programme (control arm) between 2001 and 2007. Assignment of UCD was by independent reviews of researcher-written clinical vignettes that masked trial arm and death certificate information. A period of time after the process began (the initial phase), we analysed whether the reviewers could correctly identify trial arm from the vignettes, and the reasons for their choice. This feedback led to further standardisation of information (second phase), after which we re-assessed the extent of correct identification of trial arm.Results1099 assessments of 509 vignettes were completed by January 2014. In the initial phase (n = 510 assessments), reviewers were unsure of trial arm in 33% of intervention and 30% of control arm assessments and were influenced by symptoms at diagnosis, PSA test result and study-specific criteria. In the second phase (n = 589), the respective proportions of uncertainty were 45% and 48%. The percentage of cases whereby reviewers were unable to determine the trial arm was greater following the standardisation of information provided in the vignettes. The chances of a correct guess and an incorrect guess were equalised in each arm, following further standardisation.ConclusionsIt is possible to mask trial arm from cause of death reviewers, by using their feedback to standardise the information submitted to them.Trial registrationISRCTN92187251

Importance and contribution of community, social, and healthcare risk factors for hepatitis C infection in Pakistan

Pakistan has a high prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, estimated at 4.9% (2,290/46,843) in the 2007 national HCV seroprevalence survey. We used data from this survey to assess the importance of risk factor associations with HCV prevalence in Pakistan. Exposures were grouped as community (going to the barbers, sharing smoking equipment, having an ear/nose piercing, tattoo, or acupuncture), healthcare (ever having hemodialysis, blood transfusion, or ≥ 5 injections in the last year), demographic (marital status and age), and socio-economic (illiterate or laborer). We used mutually adjusted multivariable regression analysis, stratified by sex, to determine associations with HCV infection, their population attributable fraction, and how risk of infection accumulates with multiple exposures. Strength of associations was assessed using adjusted odds ratios (aOR). Community [aOR females 1.5 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2, 1.8); males 1.2 (1.1, 1.4)] and healthcare [females 1.4 (1.2, 1.6); males 1.2 (1.1, 1.4)] exposures, low socio-economic status [females 1.6 (1.3, 1.80); males 1.3 (1.2, 1.5)], and marriage [females 1.5 (1.2, 1.9); males 1.4 (1.1, 1.8)] were associated with increased HCV infection. Among married women, the number of children was associated with an increase in HCV infection; linear trend aOR per child 1.06 (1.01, 1.11). Fewer infections could be attributed to healthcare exposures (females 13%; males 6%) than to community exposures (females 25%; males 9%). Prevalence increased from 3% to 10% when cumulative exposures increased from 1 to ≥ 4 [aOR per additional exposure for females 1.5 (1.4, 1.6); males 1.2 (1.2, 1.3)]. A combination of community, healthcare, and other factors appear to drive the Pakistan HCV epidemic, highlighting the need for a comprehensive array of prevention strategies.

A novel strategy to reduce very late HIV diagnosis in high-prevalence areas in South-West England: serious incident audit

Background Very late diagnosis of HIV is a serious public health issue. We used serious incident reporting (SIR) to identify and address reasons for late diagnoses across the patient pathway. Methods Cases of very late HIV diagnosis were reported via SIR in two 6-month batches between 2011 and 2012 in Bournemouth, Poole and Bristol. Case notes were reviewed for missed opportunities for earlier diagnosis using a root-cause analysis tool. Results A total of 33 patients (aged 30-67 years, 66% male) were diagnosed very late. Although the majority were white British (n = 17), Black African (n = 9) and Eastern European (n = 4) ethnicities were over-represented. Twenty-four (73%) patients had clinical indicator conditions for HIV, 30 (91%) had a risk factor for HIV acquisition, with 13 (39%) having 2 or more (men-who-have-sex-with-men (n = 11), partner HIV positive (n = 11), from high-prevalence area (n = 12)). Actions resulting from SIR included increasing awareness of indicator conditions, HIV education days within primary care, and initiatives to increase testing within hospital specialities. Conclusions SIR allowed identification of reasons for very late HIV diagnosis and provided an impetus for initiatives to address them. SIR may be part of an effective strategy to prevent late diagnosis of HIV which would have important benefits for individual and population health.

Impact of opioid substitution therapy on the HIV prevention benefit of antiretroviral therapy for people who inject drugs

Objective: A recent meta-analysis suggested that opioid substitution therapy (OST) increased uptake of antiretroviral treatment (ART) and HIV viral suppression. We modelled whether OST could improve the HIV prevention benefit achieved by ART among people who inject drugs (PWID). Methods: We modelled how introducing OST could improve the coverage of ART across a PWID population for different baseline ART coverage levels. Using existing data on how yearly HIV-transmission risk is related to HIV plasma viral load, changes in the level of viral suppression across the population were used to project the relative reduction in yearly HIV-transmission risk achieved by ART, with or without OST, compared with if there was no ART – defined here as the prevention effectiveness of ART. Results: Owing to OST use increasing the chance of being on ART and achieving viral suppression if on ART, the prevention effectiveness of ART for PWID on OST (compared with PWID not on OST) increases by 44, 31, or 20% for a low (20%), moderate (40%), or high (60%) baseline ART coverage, respectively. Improvements in the population-level prevention effectiveness of ART are also achieved across all PWID, compared with if OST was not introduced. For instance, if OST is introduced at 40% coverage, the population-level prevention effectiveness of ART could increase by 27, 20, or 13% for a low (20%), moderate (40%), or high (60%) baseline ART coverage, respectively. Conclusion: OST could improve the HIV prevention benefit of ART; supporting strategies that aim to concurrently scale-up OST with ART.

Curbing the hepatitis C virus epidemic in Pakistan: the impact of scaling up treatment and prevention for achieving elimination

Abstract Background The World Health Organization (WHO) has developed a global health strategy to eliminate viral hepatitis. We project the treatment and prevention requirements to achieve the WHO HCV elimination target of reducing HCV incidence by 80% and HCV-related mortality by 65% by 2030 in Pakistan, which has the second largest HCV burden worldwide. Methods We developed an HCV transmission model for Pakistan, and calibrated it to epidemiological data from a national survey (2007), surveys among people who inject drugs (PWID), and blood donor data. Current treatment coverage data came from expert opinion and published reports. The model projected the HCV burden, including incidence, prevalence and deaths through 2030, and estimated the impact of varying prevention and direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment interventions necessary for achieving the WHO HCV elimination targets. Results With no further treatment (currently ∼150 000 treated annually) during 2016–30, chronic HCV prevalence will increase from 3.9% to 5.1%, estimated annual incident infections will increase from 700 000 to 1 100 000, and 1 400 000 HCV-associated deaths will occur. To reach the WHO HCV elimination targets by 2030, 880 000 annual DAA treatments are required if prevention is not scaled up and no treatment prioritization occurs. By targeting treatment toward persons with cirrhosis (80% treated annually) and PWIDs (double the treatment rate of non-PWIDs), the required annual treatment number decreases to 750 000. If prevention activities also halve transmission risk, this treatment number reduces to 525 000 annually. Conclusions Substantial HCV prevention and treatment interventions are required to reach the WHO HCV elimination targets in Pakistan, without which Pakistan’s HCV burden will increase markedly.