Chihiro Kayo

Paper and Paperboard Demand and Associated Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Asia Through 2050

This study estimated paper and paperboard demand, pulpwood demand, and carbon dioxide (CO) emissions from production of paper and paperboard through 2050 in ten Asian countries. Under scenarios of varying population, gross domestic product (GDP), and per capita paper and paperboard demand, we analyzed the relationship between economic growth and consumption of paper and paperboard. We also evaluated options to reduce CO emissions through increased use of black liquor, waste paper pulping, and wood chemical pulping, as well as improvements in pulp, paper, and paperboard production technology. The quadratic curve model (inverted U) for per capita consumption of paper and paperboard against per capita GDP resulted in significant regression coefficients and higher adjusted R2 values than linear and logarithmic curve models for all uses of paper and paperboard. The estimated paper and paperboard demand in the ten countries in 2050 ranged from 112% (328%) to 156% (454%) of total 2005 consumption for the world (for the ten Asian countries). Of this estimated paper and paperboard demand, China accounted for about 50% and India 20%. The estimated pulpwood demand in these ten countries in 2050 ranged from 13% (48%) to 21% (84%) of global (ten country) 2005 wood supply potential. The introduction or increase of the use of black liquor, waste paper pulping, the combination of wood chemical pulping and black liquor, and technological improvements produced CO reductions of 24%, 5%, 32%, and 25%, respectively, compared to 2050 emission levels in the no‐measure (unadjusted) option, assuming sustainable forest management.

Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by using wood to protect against soil liquefaction.

We compared the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a log pile (LP) to those from a sand compaction pile (SCP) and from cement deep mixing (CDM) as measures against soil liquefaction, assuming that forest and waste management scenarios influence the GHG (CO2, CH4, and N2O) balance of wood. We found little difference between the LP and SCP methods with respect to GHG emissions from fossil fuel and limestone consumption. However, GHG emissions from the CDM method were seven times higher than emissions from the LP method. In the GHG balance of wood, when the percentage of CH4 emissions from carbon in underground wood was lower than 3.3%, permanent storage in the log achieved greater reductions in GHG emissions than using the waste log as fuel in place of coal or heavy oil. In order to obtain reductions in GHG emissions by replacing SCPs or CDM with LPs, sustainable forest management with reforestation and prevention of CH4 emissions from the underground log are essential. Using reforestation, permanent storage of the log, no CH4 emission from the log, and using logging residues instead of coal, the LP can achieve reductions in GHG emissions of 121 tonnes of CO2 per 100 m2 of improvement area by replacing CDM.

Effect of Change of Forest Carbon Storage on Net Carbon Dioxide Balance of Wood Use for Energy in Japan

This study analyzed the net carbon dioxide (CO) emission reductions between 2005 and 2050 by using wood for energy under various scenarios of forest management and energy conversion technology in Japan, considering both CO emission reductions from replacement of fossil fuels and changes in carbon storage in forests. According to our model, wood production for energy results in a significant reduction of carbon storage levels in forests (by 46% to 77% in 2050 from the 2005 level). Thus, the net CO emission reduction when wood is used for energy becomes drastically smaller. Conventional tree production for energy increases net CO emissions relative to preserving forests, but fast-growing tree production may reduce net CO emissions more than preserving forests does. When wood from fast-growing trees is used to generate electricity with gas turbines, displacing natural gas, the net CO emission reduction from the combination of fast-growing trees and electricity generation with gas turbines is about 58% of the CO emission reduction from electricity generation from gas turbines alone in 2050, and an energy conversion efficiency of around 20% or more is required to obtain net reductions over the entire period until 2050. When wood is used to produce bioethanol, displacing gasoline, net reductions are realized after 2030, provided that heat energy is recovered from residues from ethanol production. These results show the importance of considering the change in carbon storage when estimating the net CO emission reduction effect of the wood use for energy.

Socioeconomic development and wood consumption.

To show the relationship between socioeconomic development and wood consumption for the investigation of future changes in wood demand in countries where socioeconomic development is expected, we analyzed panel data on per capita GDP, the human development index (HDI), and other factors in relation to per capita wood consumption for 33 OECD and 6 BRIICS countries. An increasing linear trend was found between per capita GDP and per capita consumption for sawn wood. However, the consumption declined over time when the same economic level was attained. In the case of plywood, reconstituted panels, and paper/paperboard, the results suggest that an environmental Kuznets curve, represented as an inverted-U curve, exists between per capita GDP and per capita consumption, confirming a tendency for consumption to reach saturation and then decline as economic development progresses. For wood fuel, an increasing linear trend was confirmed between economic level and per capita consumption, indicating the recent promotion of biofuel in developed countries. However, economic level alone might not be sufficient for explaining the demand for wood. The consumption of sawn wood, plywood, reconstituted panels, and paper/paperboard declined over time for a given HDI level. Rising population density and urbanization can contribute to a decrease in per capita wood consumption, whereas the larger the country’s forest area, the greater per capita wood consumption. In particular, there is an increasing tendency to use the latest forms of wood fuel under sustainable forest management.

Socioeconomic factors influencing global paper and paperboard demand

To clarify the socioeconomic factors influencing global paper and paperboard demand, a panel data analysis was conducted covering the period 1961–2014. This study used paper and paperboard demand as the dependent variable, and a country’s economic level, Internet usage rate, plastic packaging demand, and time trend as the explanatory variables. An inverse U-shaped quadratic relationship, such as an environmental Kuznets curve, was found between economic level and paper and paperboard demand, which saturates and begins to decline as economic level increases. The economic level representing the turning point differs significantly with the use, ranging from around 37,000 US

Carbon balance assessments of harvested wood products in Japan taking account of inter-regional flows

/person for newsprint paper to around 66,000 US

Evaluation of CO2 emissions reductions by timber check dams and their economic effectiveness

/person for printing and writing paper. For both newsprint paper and printing and writing paper, demand declines owing to the spread of the Internet as the economic level rises, although this reductive effect is greater for printing and writing paper than for newsprint paper. A substitution relationship is not found between wrapping paper and corrugated cardboard on the one hand and plastic packaging on the other hand as the economic level becomes higher.