Chris J. Scott

The Maunder minimum (1645–1715) was indeed a grand minimum: A reassessment of multiple datasets

Aims. Although the time of the Maunder minimum (1645–1715) is widely known as a period of extremely low solar activity, it is still being debated whether solar activity during that period might have been moderate or even higher than the current solar cycle #24. We have revisited all existing evidence and datasets, both direct and indirect, to assess the level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum. Methods. We discuss the East Asian naked-eye sunspot observations, the telescopic solar observations, the fraction of sunspot active days, the latitudinal extent of sunspot positions, auroral sightings at high latitudes, cosmogenic radionuclide data as well as solar eclipse observations for that period. We also consider peculiar features of the Sun (very strong hemispheric asymmetry of the sunspot location, unusual differential rotation and the lack of the K-corona) that imply a special mode of solar activity during the Maunder minimum. Results. The level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum is reassessed on the basis of all available datasets. Conclusions. We conclude that solar activity was indeed at an exceptionally low level during the Maunder minimum. Although the exact level is still unclear, it was definitely lower than during the Dalton minimum of around 1800 and significantly below that of the current solar cycle #24. Claims of a moderate-to-high level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum are rejected with a high confidence level.

Evidence for solar wind modulation of lightning

The response of lightning rates over Europe to arrival of high speed solar wind streams at Earth is investigated using a superposed epoch analysis. Fast solar wind stream arrival is determined from modulation of the solar wind V y component, measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft. Lightning rate changes around these event times are determined from the very low frequency arrival time difference (ATD) system of the UK Met Office. Arrival of high speed streams at Earth is found to be preceded by a decrease in total solar irradiance and an increase in sunspot number and Mg II emissions. These are consistent with the high speed streams source being co-located with an active region appearing on the Eastern solar limb and rotating at the 27 d period of the Sun. Arrival of the high speed stream at Earth also coincides with a small (~1%) but rapid decrease in galactic cosmic ray flux, a moderate (~6%) increase in lower energy solar energetic protons (SEPs), and a substantial, statistically significant increase in lightning rates. These changes persist for around 40 d in all three quantities. The lightning rate increase is corroborated by an increase in the total number of thunder days observed by UK Met stations, again persisting for around 40 d after the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream. This result appears to contradict earlier studies that found an anti-correlation between sunspot number and thunder days over solar cycle timescales. The increase in lightning rates and thunder days that we observe coincides with an increased flux of SEPs which, while not being detected at ground level, nevertheless penetrate the atmosphere to tropospheric altitudes. This effect could be further amplified by an increase in mean lightning stroke intensity that brings more strokes above the detection threshold of the ATD system. In order to remove any potential seasonal bias the analysis was repeated for daily solar wind triggers occurring during the summer months (June to August). Though this reduced the number of solar wind triggers to 32, the response in both lightning and thunder day data remained statistically significant. This modulation of lightning by regular and predictable solar wind events may be beneficial to medium range forecasting of hazardous weather.

Validation of a priori CME arrival predictions made using real‐time heliospheric imager observations

Between December 2010 and March 2013, volunteers for the Solar Stormwatch (SSW) Citizen Science project have identified and analyzed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the near real-time Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory Heliospheric Imager observations, in order to make “Fearless Forecasts” of CME arrival times and speeds at Earth. Of the 60 predictions of Earth-directed CMEs, 20 resulted in an identifiable Interplanetary CME (ICME) at Earth within 1.5–6 days, with an average error in predicted transit time of 22 h, and average transit time of 82.3 h. The average error in predicting arrival speed is 151 km s−1, with an average arrival speed of 425km s−1. In the same time period, there were 44 CMEs for which there are no corresponding SSW predictions, and there were 600 days on which there was neither a CME predicted nor observed. A number of metrics show that the SSW predictions do have useful forecast skill; however, there is still much room for improvement. We investigate potential improvements by using SSW inputs in three models of ICME propagation: two of constant acceleration and one of aerodynamic drag. We find that taking account of interplanetary acceleration can improve the average errors of transit time to 19 h and arrival speed to 77 km s−1.

On the origins and timescales of geoeffective IMF

Southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) in the Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric (GSM) reference frame is the key element that controls the level of space-weather disturbance in Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere. We discuss the relation of this geoeffective IMF component to the IMF in the Geocentric Solar Ecliptic (GSE) frame and, using the almost continuous interplanetary data for 1996-2015 (inclusive), we show that large geomagnetic storms are always associated with strong southward, out-of-ecliptic field in the GSE frame: dipole tilt effects, that cause the difference between the southward field in the GSM and GSE frames, generally make only a minor contribution to these strongest storms. The time-of-day/time-of-year response patterns of geomagnetic indices and the optimum solar wind coupling function are both influenced by the timescale of the index response. We also study the occurrence spectrum of large out-of-ecliptic field and show that for one-hour averages it is, surprisingly, almost identical in ICMEs (Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections), around CIRs/SIRs (Corotating and Stream Interaction Regions) and in the “quiet” solar wind (which is shown to be consistent with the effect of weak SIRs). However, differences emerge when the timescale over which the field remains southward is considered: for longer averaging timescales the spectrum is broader inside ICMEs, showing that these events generate longer intervals of strongly southward average IMF and consequently stronger geomagnetic storms. The behavior of out-of-ecliptic field with timescale is shown to be very similar to that of deviations from the predicted Parker spiral orientation, suggesting the two share common origins.

The Solar Stormwatch CME catalogue: Results from the first space weather citizen science project

Solar Stormwatch was the first space weather citizen science project, the aim of which is to identify and track coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the Heliospheric Imagers aboard the STEREO satellites. The project has now been running for approximately 4 years, with input from >16, 000 citizen scientists, resulting in a data set of >38, 000 time-elongation profiles of CME trajectories, observed over 18 preselected position angles. We present our method for reducing this data set into a CME catalogue. The resulting catalogue consists of 144 CMEs over the period January 2007 to February 2010, of which 110 were observed by STEREO-A and 77 were observed by STEREO-B. For each CME, the time-elongation profiles generated by the citizen scientists are averaged into a consensus profile along each position angle that the event was tracked. We consider this catalogue to be unique, being at present the only citizen science-generated CME catalogue, tracking CMEs over an elongation range of 4 ◦ out to a maximum of approximately 70 ◦ . Using single spacecraft fitting techniques, we estimate the speed, direction, solar source region, and latitudinal width of each CME. This shows that at present, the Solar Stormwatch catalogue (which covers only solar minimum years) contains almost exclusively slow CMEs, with a mean speed of approximately 350 km s −1 . The full catalogue is available for public access at www.met.reading. ac.uk/~spate/solarstormwatch. This includes, for each event, the unprocessed time-elongation profiles generated by Solar Stormwatch, the consensus time-elongation profiles, and a set of summary plots, as well as the estimated CME properties.

Modulation of UK lightning by heliospheric magnetic field polarity

Observational studies have reported solar magnetic modulation of terrestrial lightning on a range of time scales, from days to decades. The proposed mechanism is two-step: lightning rates vary with galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux incident on Earth, either via changes in atmospheric conductivity and/or direct triggering of lightning. GCR flux is, in turn, primarily controlled by the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) intensity. Consequently, global changes in lightning rates are expected. This study instead considers HMF polarity, which doesnʼt greatly affect total GCR flux. Opposing HMF polarities are, however, associated with a 40–60% difference in observed UK lightning and thunder rates. As HMF polarity skews the terrestrial magnetosphere from its nominal position, this perturbs local ionospheric potential at high latitudes and local exposure to energetic charged particles from the magnetosphere. We speculate as to the mechanism(s) by which this may, in turn, redistribute the global location and/or intensity of thunderstorm activity.

Atmospheric changes from solar eclipses

This article reviews atmospheric changes associated with 44 solar eclipses, beginning with the first quantitative results available, from 1834 (earlier qualitative accounts also exist). Eclipse meteorology attracted relatively few publications until the total solar eclipse of 16 February 1980, with the 11 August 1999 eclipse producing the most papers. Eclipses passing over populated areas such as Europe, China and India now regularly attract scientific attention, whereas atmospheric measurements of eclipses at remote locations remain rare. Many measurements and models have been used to exploit the uniquely predictable solar forcing provided by an eclipse. In this paper, we compile the available publications and review a subset of them chosen on the basis of importance and novelty. Beyond the obvious reduction in incoming solar radiation, atmospheric cooling from eclipses can induce dynamical changes. Observations and meteorological modelling provide evidence for the generation of a local eclipse circulation that may be the origin of the ‘eclipse wind’. Gravity waves set up by the eclipse can, in principle, be detected as atmospheric pressure fluctuations, though theoretical predictions are limited, and many of the data are inconclusive. Eclipse events providing important early insights into the ionization of the upper atmosphere are also briefly reviewed. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse’.

Lightning as a space-weather hazard:UK thunderstorm activity modulated by the passage of the heliospheric current sheet

Lightning flash rates, RL, are modulated by corotating interaction regions (CIRs) and the polarity of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) in near-Earth space. As the HMF polarity reverses at the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), typically within a CIR, these phenomena are likely related. In this study, RL is found to be significantly enhanced at the HCS and at 27 days prior/after. The strength of the enhancement depends on the polarity of the HMF reversal at the HCS. Near-Earth solar and galactic energetic particle fluxes are also ordered by HMF polarity, though the variations qualitatively differ from RL, with the main increase occurring prior to the HCS crossing. Thus, the CIR effect on lightning is either the result of compression/amplification of the HMF (and its subsequent interaction with the terrestrial system) or that energetic particle preconditioning of the Earth system prior to the HMF polarity change is central to solar wind lightning coupling mechanism.

The National Eclipse Weather Experiment: use and evaluation of a citizen science tool for schools outreach.

The National Eclipse Weather Experiment (NEWEx) was a citizen science project for atmospheric data collection from the partial solar eclipse of 20 March 20. Its role as a tool for schools outreach is discussed here, in seeking to bridge the gap between self-identification with the role of a scientist and engagement with science, technology, engineering and mathematics subjects. (The science data generated have had other uses beyond this, explored elsewhere.) We describe the design of webforms for weather data collection, and the use of several external partners for the dissemination of the project nationwide. We estimate that up to 3500 pupils and teachers took part in this experiment, through the 127 schools postcodes identified in the data submission. Further analysis revealed that 43.3% of the schools were primary schools and 35.4% were secondary. In total, 96.3% of participants reported themselves as ‘captivated’ or ‘inspired’ by NEWEx. We also found that 60% of the schools that took part in the experiment lie within the highest quintiles of engagement with higher education, which emphasizes the need for the scientific community to be creative when using citizen science projects to target hard-to-reach audiences. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse’.

Differences between the CME fronts tracked by an expert, an automated algorithm, and the Solar Stormwatch project

Observations from the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments aboard the twin STEREO spacecraft have enabled the compilation of several catalogues of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), each characterizing the propagation of CMEs through the inner heliosphere. Three such catalogues are the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL)-HI event list, the Solar Stormwatch CME catalogue, and, presented here, the J-tracker catalogue. Each catalogue uses a different method to characterize the location of CME fronts in the HI images: manual identification by an expert, the statistical reduction of the manual identifications of many citizen scientists, and an automated algorithm. We provide a quantitative comparison of the differences between these catalogues and techniques, using 51 CMEs common to each catalogue. The time-elongation profiles of these CME fronts are compared, as are the estimates of the CME kinematics derived from application of three widely used single-spacecraft-fitting techniques. The J-tracker and RAL-HI profiles are most similar, while the Solar Stormwatch profiles display a small systematic offset. Evidence is presented that these differences arise because the RAL-HI and J-tracker profiles follow the sunward edge of CME density enhancements, while Solar Stormwatch profiles track closer to the antisunward (leading) edge. We demonstrate that the method used to produce the time-elongation profile typically introduces more variability into the kinematic estimates than differences between the various single-spacecraft-fitting techniques. This has implications for the repeatability and robustness of these types of analyses, arguably especially so in the context of space weather forecasting, where it could make the results strongly dependent on the methods used by the forecaster.