Chris Klok

Ecotoxicological Mechanisms and Models in an Impact Analysis Tool for Oil Spills

In an international collaborative effort, an impact analysis tool is being developed to predict the effect of accidental oil spills on recruitment and production of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the Barents Sea. The tool consisted of three coupled ecological models that describe (1) plankton biomass dynamics, (2) cod larvae growth, and (3) fish stock dynamics. The discussions from a series of workshops are presented in which variables and parameters of the first two ecological models were listed that may be affected by oil-related compounds. In addition, ecotoxicological algorithms are suggested that may be used to quantify such effects and what the challenges and opportunities are for algorithm parameterization. Based on model exercises described in the literature, survival and individual growth of cod larvae, survival and reproduction of zooplankton, and phytoplankton population growth are denoted as variables and parameters from the ecological models that might be affected in case of an oil spill. Because toxicity databases mostly (67%) contain data for freshwater species in temperate environments, parameterization of the ecotoxicological algorithms describing effects on these endpoints in the subarctic marine environment is not straightforward. Therefore, it is proposed that metadata analyses be used to estimate the sensitivity of subarctic marine species from available databases. To perform such analyses and reduce associated uncertainty and variability, mechanistic models of varying complexity, possibly aided by new experimental data, are proposed. Lastly, examples are given of how seasonality in ecosystems may influence chemical effects, in particular in the subarctic environment. Food availability and length of day were identified as important characteristics as these determine nutritional status and phototoxicity, respectively.

Toxicity data for modeling impacts of oil components in an Arctic ecosystem.

Ecological impact assessment modeling systems are valuable support tools for managing impacts from commercial activities on marine habitats and species. The inclusion of toxic effects modeling in these systems is predicated on the availability and quality of ecotoxicology data. Here we report on a data gathering exercise to obtain toxic effects data on oil compounds for a selection of cold-water marine species of fish and plankton associated with the Barents Sea ecosystem. Effects data were collated from historical and contemporary literature resources for the endpoints mortality, development, growth, bioaccumulation and reproduction. Evaluating the utility and applicability of these data for modeling, we find that data coverage is limited to a sub-set of the required endpoints. There is a need for new experimental studies for zooplankton focused on the endpoints development and bioaccumulation and for larvae and juvenile fish focused on growth and development.

Towards quantitative ecological risk assessment of elevated carbon dioxide levels in the marine environment

The environmental impact of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) levels has become of more interest in recent years. This, in relation to globally rising CO2 levels and related considerations of geological CO2 storage as a mitigating measure. In the present study effect data from literature were collected in order to conduct a marine ecological risk assessment of elevated CO2 levels, using a Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD). It became evident that information currently available from the literature is mostly insufficient for such a quantitative approach. Most studies focus on effects of expected future CO2 levels, testing only one or two elevated concentrations. A full dose-response relationship, a uniform measure of exposure, and standardized test protocols are essential for conducting a proper quantitative risk assessment of elevated CO2 levels. Improvements are proposed to make future tests more valuable and usable for quantitative risk assessment.

Diagnosing declining grassland wader populations using simple matrix models

Many populations of wader species have shown a strong decline in number in Western-Europe in recent years. The use of simple population models such as matrix models can contribute to conserve these populations by identifying the most profitable management measures. Parameterization of such models is often hampered by the availability of demographic data (survival and reproduction). In particular, data on survival in the pre-adult (immature) stage of wader species that remain in wintering areas outside Europe are notoriously difficult to obtain, and are therefore virtually absent in the literature. To diagnose population decline in the wader species; Black-tailed Godwit, Curlew, Lapwing, Oystercatcher, and Redshank, we extended an existing modelling framework in which incomplete demographic data can be analysed, developed for species with a pre-adult stage of one year. The framework is based on a Leslie matrix model with three parameters: yearly reproduction (number of fledglings per pair), yearly pre-adult (immature) and yearly adult (mature) survival. The yearly population growth rate of these populations and the relative sensitivity of this rate to changes in survival and reproduction parameters (the elasticity) were calculated numerically and, if possible, analytically. The results showed a decrease in dependence on reproduction and an increase in pre-adult survival of the population growth rate with an increase in the duration of the pre-adult stage. In general, adult survival had the highest elasticity, but elasticity of pre-adult survival increased with time to first reproduction, a result not reported earlier. Model results showed that adult survival and reproduction estimates reported for populations of Redshank and Curlew were too low to maintain viable populations. Based on the elasticity patterns and the scope for increase in actual demographic parameters we inferred that conservation of the Redshank and both Curlew populations should focus on reproduction. For one Oystercatcher and the Black-tailed Godwit populations we suggested a focus on both reproduction and pre-adult survival. For the second Oystercatcher population pre-adult survival seemed the most promising target for conservation. And for the Lapwing populations all demographic parameters should be considered.

Conserving declining species using incomplete demographic information: what help can we expect from the use of matrix population models?

Due to human activity, many species have strongly declined in number and are currently threatened with extinction. Management directed at conservation of these species can benefit from the use of simple population models such as matrix models. However, for many species, data on survival and reproduction are scarce. Therefore, we set up a general framework based on a matrix model with three parameters: reproduction, juvenile (=first year survival) and adult survival in which incomplete data can be analysed. This framework is applicable to species that can mature after their first year of life. The point in a calendar year at which the population size is determined, i.e. the census time, is varied. We discuss the differences and the similarities between matrices modelling the same population at different census times. The population growth rate and the elasticity of the survival and reproduction parameters have been determined analytically. From these we made, as a visual diagnostic tool (general framework), plots of the growth rate and the elasticity pattern and their dependence on actual values of the reproduction parameter and the juvenile and adult survival. To illustrate the use of this framework we plot and discuss literature data on survival and/or reproduction of a few bird species with a juvenile stage of one year in the light of our modelling results.

Demography of European Honey Buzzards Pernis apivorus

We set out to explore whether changes in fecundity and survival (or both) of European Honey Buzzards were associated with trends observed in The Netherlands. We used standardized monitoring data on numbers and reproduction from several study plots in The Netherlands over the period of 1974–2005. Survival estimates were based on recoveries of Honey Buzzards ringed throughout Europe (collated by EURING and individual ringing stations). Based on these values we computed the annual population growth rate with a time invariant population model, and used elasticity analysis to detect the parameter with the strongest influence on growth rate. Lambda was smaller than 1, suggesting a population decline, but confidence intervals around lambda were relatively wide. Elasticity of adult survival was much higher than of any other life history parameter, indicating that adult survival has potentially the greatest impact on annual population growth. Because data on reproduction varied strongly we estimated a 95% confidence interval for annual population growth by bootstrapping the reproduction data. Furthermore, we analysed the influence of stochastic food availability (i.e. wasp abundance) on reproduction, and through this demographic factor, on the population trend. The stochastic model suggests a clear population decline, which is consistent with observed declines across much of northern and western Europe (including The Netherlands). For the growth rate &lgr; to reach 1, a reproductive output of 1.16 young per pair was calculated to be necessary, much higher than the 0.53–0.88 found in two study sites in The Netherlands.

Estimating the impact of petroleum substances on survival in early life stages of cod (Gadus morhua) using the dynamic energy budget theory.

To estimate the impact of accidental oil-spills on cod fisheries a model framework is developed in which a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model is applied to assess mortality caused by petroleum substances in early life stages. In this paper we report on a literature search and DEB analyses, aiming for cod specific DEB-parameters. Furthermore, we explored the relevance of Fathead minnow DEB-parameters as surrogate by comparing LC50 values calculated from DEB-parameters with literature. Cod specific DEB-parameters could not be estimated based on available literature. LC50 values calculated from Fathead minnow DEB-parameters were higher than literature LC50 for early life stages of fish. Applying an extrapolation factor of 50 to the DEB-parameters resulted in LC50 values that were below literature irrespective of life stage. Therefore, we propose to use the last as an estimate for early life stages in cod and recommend relevant experiments with individual petroleum substances on cod.

How including ecological realism impacts the assessment of the environmental effect of oil spills at the population level: The application of matrix models for Arctic Calanus species

For oil spill responses, assessment of the potential environmental exposure and impacts of a spill is crucial. Due to a lack of chronic toxicity data, acute data is used together with precautionary assumptions. The effect on the Arctic keystone (copepod) species Calanus hyperboreus and Calanus glacialis populations is compared using two approaches: a precautionary approach where all exposed individuals die above a defined threshold concentration and a refined (full-dose-response) approach. For this purpose a matrix population model parameterised with data from the literature is used. Population effects of continuous exposures with varying durations were modelled on a range of concentrations. Just above the chronic No Observed Effect Concentration (which is field relevant) the estimated population recovery duration of the precautionary approach was more than 300 times that of the refined approach. With increasing exposure concentration and duration, the effect in the refined approach converges to the maximum effect assumed in the precautionary approach.