Chris Margules

Systematic conservation planning

The realization of conservation goals requires strategies for managing whole landscapes including areas allocated to both production and protection. Reserves alone are not adequate for nature conservation but they are the cornerstone on which regional strategies are built. Reserves have two main roles. They should sample or represent the biodiversity of each region and they should separate this biodiversity from processes that threaten its persistence. Existing reserve systems throughout the world contain a biased sample of biodiversity, usually that of remote places and other areas that are unsuitable for commercial activities. A more systematic approach to locating and designing reserves has been evolving and this approach will need to be implemented if a large proportion of todays biodiversity is to exist in a future of increasing numbers of people and their demands on natural resources.

Beyond opportunism: Key principles for systematic reserve selection.

The intention and practice of conservation reserve selection are different. A major reason for systems of reserves is to sustain biological diversity. This involves protecting examples of as many natural features, e.g. species, communities or environments, as possible. In reality, however, new reserves have rarely been dedicated for their representation of features. Furthermore, the opportunism that has characterized the development of reserve systems can actually jeopardize the representation of all features in reserves through the inefficient allocation of limited resources. More systematic approaches are essential if reserves are to play their role in protecting biodiversity. Some basic principles for conservation planning are emerging from recent systematic procedures for reserve selection. These principles will help to link intention and practice.

Selecting networks of reserves to maximise biological diversity

Abstract A prerequisite for preserving maximum biological diversity in a given biological domain is to identify a reserve network which includes every possible species. Two algorithms are presented which define the smallest number of wetlands on the Macleay Valley floodplain, Australia, which include all of the wetland plant species. One of these algorithms maximises species richness. The other is constrained to ensure each of nine wetland types is represented, as well as all species. To represent every plant species at least once, only 4·6% of the total number of wetlands is required, but they constitute 44·9% of the total wetland area. In order to represent all types of wetlands, as well as all plant species, 75·3% of the total wetland area is required. The results can be constrained to achieve other conservation goals such as preserving naturalness, rarity, population size, etc., by imposing conditions on rules within the algorithms. In this way a reserve network chosen to maximise diversity can be manipulated to optimise other conservation values.

Habitat fragmentation and its lasting impact on Earth's ecosystems

Urgent need for conservation and restoration measures to improve landscape connectivity. We conducted an analysis of global forest cover to reveal that 70% of remaining forest is within 1 km of the forest’s edge, subject to the degrading effects of fragmentation. A synthesis of fragmentation experiments spanning multiple biomes and scales, five continents, and 35 years demonstrates that habitat fragmentation reduces biodiversity by 13 to 75% and impairs key ecosystem functions by decreasing biomass and altering nutrient cycles. Effects are greatest in the smallest and most isolated fragments, and they magnify with the passage of time. These findings indicate an urgent need for conservation and restoration measures to improve landscape connectivity, which will reduce extinction rates and help maintain ecosystem services.

Forecasting the Effects of Global Warming on Biodiversity

ABSTRACT The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. In this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche-theory models that group species by habitat (more specifically, by environmental conditions under which a species can persist or does persist), (3) general circulation models and coupled ocean–atmosphere–biosphere models, and (4) species–area curve models that consider all species or large aggregates of species. After outlining the different uses and limitations of these methods, we make eight primary suggestions for improving forecasts. We find that greater use of the fossil record and of modern genetic studies would improve forecasting methods. We note a Quaternary conundrum: While current empirical and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions also point to constructive synergies in the solution to the different problems.

WHICH TRAITS OF SPECIES PREDICT POPULATION DECLINES IN EXPERIMENTAL FOREST FRAGMENTS

Theory suggests that species with particular traits are at greater risk of extinction than others. We assumed that a decline in abundance in forest fragments, com- pared to continuous forest, equated to an increase in extinction risk. We then tested the relationships between five traits of species and decline in abundance for 69 beetle species in an experimentally fragmented forest landscape at Mt. Wog Wog in southeastern Australia. The experiment was controlled and replicated. Monitoring ran for two years before forest fragmentation; in this paper, we examine data for five years postfragmentation. We tested five hypotheses: (1) Species that occur naturally at low abundance are more likely to decline as a result of fragmentation than are abundant species. (2) Isolated species are more likely to decline than species that are not isolated. (3) Large species are more likely to decline than small species. (4) Species in trophic groups at the top end of food chains are more likely to decline than species in trophic groups lower in the food chain. (5) Because traits are often shared by related species, populations of more closely related species will respond in the same way. We found that: (1) rare species were more likely to decline than abundant species; (2) isolated species were more likely to decline than species that were not isolated; (3) body size was not correlated with response to fragmentation; (4) among species that declined, predators declined most; and (5) taxonomically related species did not respond in the same way to fragmentation. Thus, our results confirm theories predicting that isolated, rare, or predaceous species will be lost first from fragmented landscapes.

Optimality in reserve selection algorithms: When does it matter and how much?

This paper responds to recent criticisms in Biological Conservation of heuristic reserve selection algorithms. These criticisms primarily concern the fact that heuristic algorithms cannot guarantee an optimal solution to the problem of representing a group of targeted natural features in a subset of the sites in a region. We discuss optimality in the context of a range of needs for conservation planning. We point out that classical integer linear programming methods that guarantee an optimal solution, like branch and bound algorithms, are currently intractable for many realistic problems. We also show that heuristics have practical advantages over classical methods and that suboptimality is not necessarily a disadvantage for many real-world applications. Further work on alternative reserve selection algorithms is certainly needed, but the necessary criteria for assessing their utility must be broader than mathematical optimality.

An upgraded reserve selection algorithm

Abstract A new reserve selection algorithm is proposed which minimises the possibility of widely dispersed sites being selected by including a rule to select the nearest site when sites are otherwise equal. The algorithm also minimises the number of order-dependent selections. A comparison between two solutions, one with and one without the rule to choose the nearest site, when there is a choice, shows that there is a cost associated with including that rule. It is argued, however, that a more sensible and manageable spatial arrangement for a nominal reserve network is derived by including that rule.

It's time to work together and stop duplicating conservation efforts ...

We strongly support initiatives to produce clear, efficient and practical goals for conservation to guide biodiversity planners and decision-makers in governments, agencies, conventions and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). However, as things stand there is only limited consensus on global conservation priorities at international level. We believe that the time is now right for scientists and practitioners to work together to develop a commonly adopted blueprint for action.

EFFECTS OF WITHIN- AND BETWEEN-PATCH PROCESSES ON COMMUNITY DYNAMICS IN A FRAGMENTATION EXPERIMENT

The effects of the experimental fragmentation of native eucalypt forest on the beetle community were tested, in a controlled, replicated, long-term experiment. Included in our design were three fragment sizes, fragment edge and interior sites, and sites in the surrounding exotic pine plantation matrix. We followed 325 species through 28 sampling periods over seven years, including two years pre-fragmentation. We examined effects of fragmentation on four attributes of community structure: (1) species richness, (2) species composition, (3) relative abundance, and (4) the changes in occurrence of all species individually by the traits of rarity, degree of isolation (dispersal ability), and trophic group. We also considered how changes in these attributes altered community dynamics (turnover). We used both community-level and species-level responses to determine the relative importance of processes acting at the within-patch and between-patch scales. At the within-patch scale there were two findings. (1) There was no evidence of an increase in the extinction rate on fragments, as was hypothesized. Neither species richness nor the occurrence of rare species declined on fragments compared to continuous forest. (2) Edge effects altered species occurrences and abundances on fragments compared to continuous forest. There was evidence of two edge effects, with different penetration distances. Species richness increased at fragment edges in response to a shallowly penetrating edge effect. Species relative abundance and composition changed on fragments in response to a deeply penetrating edge effect, which also caused increases in the occurrences of detritivores and fungivores. At the between-patch scale there were three findings. (1) There was no evidence of a reduction in the colonization rate of fragments. There was no reduction in species richness or in the occurrence of individual species with poor dispersal abilities on fragments compared to continuous forest. (2) The matrix between fragments altered between-patch processes by providing alternative habitat for some species. These species increased in occurrence on fragments compared to continuous forest, supporting the predictions of recent metacommunity theory. However, the matrix did not act as a source of invading species. (3) Turnover was reduced in fragments compared to continuous forest. Thus, the effect of fragmentation was to stabilize community dynamics.