Chris Papageorgiou

A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation of the Aggregate Production Function Specification

Many growth models assume that aggregate output is generated by a Cobb-Douglas production function. In this article we question the empirical relevance of this specification. We use a panel of 82 countries over a 28-year period to estimate a general constant-elasticity-of-substitution (CES) production function specification. We find that for the entire sample of countries we can reject the Cobb-Douglas specification. When we divide our sample of countries up into several subsamples, we find that physical capital and human capital adjusted labor are more substitutable in the richest group of countries and are less substitutable in the poorest group of countries than would be implied by a Cobb-Douglas specification.

Is Newer Better? Penn World Table Revisions and Their Impact on Growth Estimates

This paper sheds light on two problems in the Penn World Table (PWT) GDP estimates. First, we show that these estimates vary substantially across different versions of the PWT despite being derived from very similar underlying data and using almost identical methodologies; that this variability is systematic; and that it is intrinsic to the methodology deployed by the PWT to estimate growth rates. Moreover, this variability matters for the cross-country growth literature. While growth studies that use low-frequency data remain robust to data revisions, studies that use annual data are less robust. Second, the PWT methodology leads to GDP estimates that are not valued at purchasing power parity (PPP) prices. This is surprising because the raison d’etre of the PWT is to adjust national estimates of GDP by valuing output at common international (PPP) prices so that the resulting PPP-adjusted estimates of GDP are comparable across countries. We propose an approach to address these two problems of variability and valuation.

CAPITAL-SKILL COMPLEMENTARITY? EVIDENCE FROM A PANEL OF COUNTRIES*

Since Griliches (1969), researchers have been intrigued by the idea that physical capital and skilled labor are more complementary than physical capital and unskilled labor. In this paper we consider the cross-country evidence for capital-skill complementarity using a time-series cross-section panel of 73 developed and less developed countries over a 25-year period. We focus on three empirical issues. First, what is the best specification of the aggregate production technology to address the capital-skill complementarity hypothesis? Second, how should we measure skilled labor? Finally, is there any cross-country evidence in support of the capital-skill complementarity hypothesis? Our main finding is that there is some empirical support for the capital-skill complementarity hypothesis in our macro panel data set.

Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited: Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects

Trade theories covering Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) are as diverse as the literature in search of their empirical support. To account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing PTA theories, we introduce Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to the PTA literature. BMA minimizes the sum of Type I and Type II error, the mean squared error, and generates predictive distributions with optimal predictive performance. Once model uncertainty is addressed as part of the empirical strategy, we report clear evidence of Trade Creation, Trade Diversion, and Open Bloc effects. After controlling for natural trading partner effects, Trade Creation is weaker – except for the EU. To calculate the actual effects of PTAs on trade flows we show that the analysis must be comprehensive: it must control for Trade Creation and Diversion as well as all possible PTAs. Several prominent control variables are also shown to be robustly related to Trade Creation; they relate to factor endowments and economic policy.

Growth Empirics Without Parameters

Recent research on growth empirics has focused on resolving model and variable uncertainty. The conventional approach has been to assume a linear growth process and then to proceed with investigating the relevant variables that determine cross‐country growth. This article questions the linearity assumption underlying the vast majority of such research and uses recently developed non‐parametric techniques to handle non‐linearities as well as select relevant variables. We show that inclusion of non‐linearities is necessary for determining the empirically relevant variables and uncovering key mechanisms of the growth process.

Trade as a threshold variable for multiple regimes

Abstract This paper employs the data-sorting method developed by Hansen [Econometrica 68 (2000) 575] which allows the data to endogenously select regimes using different variables. It is shown that openness, as measured by the trade share to GDP, is a threshold variable that can cluster middle-income countries into two distinct regimes that obey different statistical models. Our result suggests that openness may not be as crucial in the growth process of low and high-income countries but it is instrumental in identifying middle-income countries into high and low-growth groups.

Distinguishing Between the Effects of Primary and Post-primary Education on Economic Growth

The paper follows Benhabib and Spiegel (Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 34, 1994:143-73) in examining the effect of human capital accumulation on economic growth. The paper is innovative in two ways. First, it takes the R&D-based models more seriously. This delivers more structural specifications in which human capital affects growth as an input of final output and as a catalyst of technological innovation and imitation. Second, owing to data availability it is possible to disaggregate human capital and assign different roles to primary and post-primary education. Regression estimates obtained from these alternative specifications suggest that the relative contribution of human capital to technology adoption and final output production vary by country wealth. More importantly, regression estimates suggest that primary education contributes mainly to production of final output, whereas post-primary education contributes mainly to innovation and imitation of technology. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2003.

International medical technology diffusion

Does medical technology originating in countries close to the technology frontier have a significant impact on health outcomes in countries distant from this frontier? This paper considers a framework where lagging countries may benefit from medical technology (a result of research and development by countries close to the frontier) that is embodied in medical imports or diffuses in the form of ideas. Using a novel dataset from a cross-section of 73 technology-importing countries, we show that medical technology dii¬€usion is an important contributor to improved health status, as measured by life expectancy and mortality rates

Variable Elasticity of Substitution and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence

We construct a one-sector growth model where the technology is described by a Variable Elasticity of Substitution (VES) production function. This framework allows the elasticity of factor substitution to interact with the level of economic development. First, we show that the model can exhibit unbounded endogenous growth despite the absence of exogenous technical change and the presence of non-reproducible factors. Second, we provide some empirical estimates of the elasticity of substitution, using a panel of 82 countries over a 28-year period, which admit the possibility of a VES aggregate production function with an elasticity of substitution that is greater than one and consequently of unbounded endogenous growth.

Economic Diversification in LICs; Stylized Facts and Macroeconomic Implications

Limited diversification is an underlying characteristic of many low-income countries (LICs). Concentration in sectors with limited scope for increases in productivity and quality may result in less broad-based and sustainable growth. Moreover, lack of diversification may increase exposure to adverse external shocks and macroeconomic instability. The SDN will have three objectives. First, to review and extend the evidence, from the existing literature and ongoing IMF work, that points to diversification as a crucial aspect of the development process. A major focus will be on cross-country and cross-regional differences in the pace of diversification. Second, to draw lessons from the experiences of those countries that have successfully diversified their economies. Third, to analyze the relationship between diversification, growth, and volatility.