Christian Guill

The dynamics of food chains under climate change and nutrient enrichment

Warming has profound effects on biological rates such as metabolism, growth, feeding and death of organisms, eventually affecting their ability to survive. Using a nonlinear bioenergetic population-dynamic model that accounts for temperature and body-mass dependencies of biological rates, we analysed the individual and interactive effects of increasing temperature and nutrient enrichment on the dynamics of a three-species food chain. At low temperatures, warming counteracts the destabilizing effects of enrichment by both bottom-up (via the carrying capacity) and top-down (via biological rates) mechanisms. Together with increasing consumer body masses, warming increases the system tolerance to fertilization. Simultaneously, warming increases the risk of starvation for large species in low-fertility systems. This effect can be counteracted by increased fertilization. In combination, therefore, two main drivers of global change and biodiversity loss can have positive and negative effects on food chain stability. Our model incorporates the most recent empirical data and may thus be used as the basis for more complex forecasting models incorporating food-web structure.

Body masses, functional responses and predator–prey stability

The stability of ecological communities depends strongly on quantitative characteristics of population interactions (type-II vs. type-III functional responses) and the distribution of body masses across species. Until now, these two aspects have almost exclusively been treated separately leaving a substantial gap in our general understanding of food webs. We analysed a large data set of arthropod feeding rates and found that all functional-response parameters depend on the body masses of predator and prey. Thus, we propose generalised functional responses which predict gradual shifts from type-II predation of small predators on equally sized prey to type-III functional-responses of large predators on small prey. Models including these generalised functional responses predict population dynamics and persistence only depending on predator and prey body masses, and we show that these predictions are strongly supported by empirical data on forest soil food webs. These results help unravelling systematic relationships between quantitative population interactions and large-scale community patterns.

Interactive effects of body-size structure and adaptive foraging on food-web stability

Body-size structure of food webs and adaptive foraging of consumers are two of the dominant concepts of our understanding how natural ecosystems maintain their stability and diversity. The interplay of these two processes, however, is a critically important yet unresolved issue. To fill this gap in our knowledge of ecosystem stability, we investigate dynamic random and niche model food webs to evaluate the proportion of persistent species. We show that stronger body-size structures and faster adaptation stabilise these food webs. Body-size structures yield stabilising configurations of interaction strength distributions across food webs, and adaptive foraging emphasises links to resources closer to the base. Moreover, both mechanisms combined have a cumulative effect. Most importantly, unstructured random webs evolve via adaptive foraging into stable size-structured food webs. This offers a mechanistic explanation of how size structure adaptively emerges in complex food webs, thus building a novel bridge between these two important stabilising mechanisms.

Interactive effects of warming, eutrophication and size-structure: impacts on biodiversity and food-web structure

Warming and eutrophication are two of the most important global change stressors for natural ecosystems, but their interaction is poorly understood. We used a dynamic model of complex, size-structured food webs to assess interactive effects on diversity and network structure. We found antagonistic impacts: Warming increases diversity in eutrophic systems and decreases it in oligotrophic systems. These effects interact with the community size structure: Communities of similarly sized species such as parasitoid-host systems are stabilized by warming and destabilized by eutrophication, whereas the diversity of size-structured predator-prey networks decreases strongly with warming, but decreases only weakly with eutrophication. Nonrandom extinction risks for generalists and specialists lead to higher connectance in networks without size structure and lower connectance in size-structured communities. Overall, our results unravel interactive impacts of warming and eutrophication and suggest that size structure may serve as an important proxy for predicting the community sensitivity to these global change stressors.

Alternative dynamical states in stage-structured consumer populations.

The population dynamics of a consumer population with an internal structure is investigated. The population is divided into juvenile and adult individuals that consume different resources and do not interfere with each other. Over a broad range of external conditions (varying mortality and different resource levels), alternative stable states exist. These population states correspond to domination of juveniles and domination of adults, respectively. When mortality is varied, hysteresis between the alternative states only occurs if juveniles have more resources than adults. In the opposite case the juvenile-dominated state is stable for all values of mortality, but the adult-dominated state is not. When the population is modelled with more than one juvenile stage, the adult-dominated state becomes a periodic orbit due to a delay in the regulatory mechanism of the population dynamics. It is shown numerically that the stage-structured model converges to a model with continuous size structure for very large numbers of successive juvenile stages.

Emergence of complexity in evolving niche-model food webs

We have analysed mechanisms that promote the emergence of complex structures in evolving model food webs. The niche model is used to determine predator-prey relationships. Complexity is measured by species richness as well as trophic level structure and link density. Adaptive dynamics that allow predators to concentrate on the prey species they are best adapted to lead to a strong increase in species number but have only a small effect on the number and relative occupancy of trophic levels. The density of active links also remains small but a high number of potential links allows the network to adjust to changes in the species composition (emergence and extinction of species). Incorporating effects of body size on individual metabolism leads to a more complex trophic level structure: both the maximum and the average trophic level increase. So does the density of active links. Taking body size effects into consideration does not have a measurable influence on species richness. If species are allowed to adjust their foraging behaviour, the complexity of the evolving networks can also be influenced by the size of the external resources. The larger the resources, the larger and more complex is the food web it can sustain. Body size effects and increasing resources do not change size and the simple structure of the evolving networks if adaptive foraging is prohibited. This leads to the conclusion that in the framework of the niche model adaptive foraging is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the emergence of complex networks. It is found that despite the stabilising effect of foraging adaptation the system displays elements of self-organised critical behaviour.

Why allometric scaling enhances stability in food web models

It has recently been shown that the incorporation of allometric scaling into the dynamic equations of food web models enhances network stability if predators are assigned a higher body mass than their prey. We investigate the underlying mechanisms leading to this stability increase. The dynamic equations can be written such that allometric scaling influences these equations at three places: the time scales of predator and prey dynamics become separated, the energy outflow to the predators is decreased, and intraspecific competition is increased relative to metabolic rates. For five food web topologies and various network sizes (i.e., species richness), we study the effect of each of these modifications on the percentage of surviving species separately and find that the decreased interaction strengths and the increased intraspecific competition are responsible for the enhanced stability. We also investigate the range of parameter values for which an enhanced stability is observed.

Animal diversity and ecosystem functioning in dynamic food webs

Species diversity is changing globally and locally, but the complexity of ecological communities hampers a general understanding of the consequences of animal species loss on ecosystem functioning. High animal diversity increases complementarity of herbivores but also increases feeding rates within the consumer guild. Depending on the balance of these counteracting mechanisms, species-rich animal communities may put plants under top-down control or may release them from grazing pressure. Using a dynamic food-web model with body-mass constraints, we simulate ecosystem functions of 20,000 communities of varying animal diversity. We show that diverse animal communities accumulate more biomass and are more exploitative on plants, despite their higher rates of intra-guild predation. However, they do not reduce plant biomass because the communities are composed of larger, and thus energetically more efficient, plant and animal species. This plasticity of community body-size structure reconciles the debate on the consequences of animal species loss for primary productivity.

Evolutionary food web model based on body masses gives realistic networks with permanent species turnover

The networks of predator-prey interactions in ecological systems are remarkably complex, but nevertheless surprisingly stable in terms of long term persistence of the system as a whole. In order to understand the mechanism driving the complexity and stability of such food webs, we developed an eco-evolutionary model in which new species emerge as modifications of existing ones and dynamic ecological interactions determine which species are viable. The food-web structure thereby emerges from the dynamical interplay between speciation and trophic interactions. The proposed model is less abstract than earlier evolutionary food web models in the sense that all three evolving traits have a clear biological meaning, namely the average body mass of the individuals, the preferred prey body mass, and the width of their potential prey body mass spectrum. We observed networks with a wide range of sizes and structures and high similarity to natural food webs. The model networks exhibit a continuous species turnover, but massive extinction waves that affect more than 50% of the network are not observed.

A three-species model explaining cyclic dominance of Pacific salmon

The four-year oscillations of the number of spawning sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) that return to their native stream within the Fraser River basin in Canada are a striking example of population oscillations. The period of the oscillation corresponds to the dominant generation time of these fish. Various-not fully convincing-explanations for these oscillations have been proposed, including stochastic influences, depensatory fishing, or genetic effects. Here, we show that the oscillations can be explained as an attractor of the population dynamics, resulting from a strong resonance near a Neimark Sacker bifurcation. This explains not only the long-term persistence of these oscillations, but also reproduces correctly the empirical sequence of salmon abundance within one period of the oscillations. Furthermore, it explains the observation that these oscillations occur only in sockeye stocks originating from large oligotrophic lakes, and that they are usually not observed in salmon species that have a longer generation time.