Christian von Hirschhausen

Efficiency Analysis of German Electricity Distribution Utilities -Non-Parametric and Parametric Tests

This study applies non-parametric and parametric tests to assess the efficiency of electricity distribution companies in Germany. Traditional issues in electricity sector benchmarking are addressed, such as the role of scale effects and optimal utility size, as well as new evidence specific to the situation in Germany. Labour, capital, and peak load capacity are used as inputs, and units sold and the number of customers as output. The data cover 307 (out of 553) German electricity distribution utilities. A data envelopment analysis (DEA) is applied with constant returns to scale (CRS) as the main productivity analysis technique, whereas stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) with distance function is the verification method. The results suggest that returns to scale play but a minor role; only very small utilities have a significant cost advantage. Low customer density is found to affect the efficiency score significantly, in particular in the lower third of all observations. Surprisingly, East German utilities feature a higher average efficiency than their West German counterparts. The correlation tests imply a high coherence of the results.

Long-term electricity demand in China — From quantitative to qualitative growth?

Abstract This paper develops scenarios of electricity demand in China until 2010, at a national, a sectoral and a regional level. It takes into account the recent macroeconomic downturn in the Chinese economy and the potential effects of deregulation and price increases in the power sector. The medium-growth scenario hints at a gross electricity demand of 1500 TWh in 2010; should the structural change from agriculture and heavy industry towards light industry and services accelerate, electricity demand may be another 10% lower. These figures are significantly below the projections fixed in the governments 9th five-year plan, which forecasts a demand of 2500 TWh. The aggregate and sectoral scenarios imply that current development plans for generating capacity and coal consumption until 2010, too, need to be scaled down. The disaggregation at the level of the 13 inter-provincial and provincial power grids hints at potential regional discrepancies: the large industrial areas in eastern China and the Central region are likely to face overcapacity, whereas North China and the peripheral regions may face deficits.

Representing GASPEC with the World Gas Model

This paper presents results of simulating a more collusive behavior of a group of natural gas producing and exporting countries, sometimes called GASPEC. We use the World Gas Model, a dynamic, strategic representation of world gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. In particular, we simulate a closer cooperation of the GASPEC countries when exporting pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas; we also run a more drastic scenario where GASPEC countries deliberately withhold production. The results shows that compared to a Base Case, a gas cartel would reduce total supplied quantities and induce price increases in gas importing countries up to 22%. There is evidence that the natural gas markets in Europe and North America would be affected more than other parts of the world. Lastly, the vulnerability of gas importers worldwide on gas exporting countries supplies is further illustrated by the results of a sensitivity case in which price levels are up to 87% higher in Europe and North America, but non-GEC countries increase production by a mere 10%.

ELMOD - A Model of the European Electricity Market

This paper provides a description of ELMOD, a model of the European electricity market including both generation and the physical transmission network (DC Load Flow approach). The model was developed at the Chair of Energy Economics and Public Sector Management (EE2) at Dresden University of Technology in order to analyze various questions on market design, congestion management, and investment decisions, with a focus on Germany and Continental Europe. ELMOD is a bottom-up model combining electrical engineering and economics: its objective function is welfare maximization, subject to line flow, energy balance, and generation constraints. The model provides simulations on an hourly basis, taking into account variable demand, wind input, unit commitment, start-up costs, pump storage, and other details. We report selected study results using ELMOD.

Long-Term vs. Short-Term Contracts: A European Perspective on Natural Gas

This paper analyses the economics of long-term gas contracts under changing institutional conditions, mainly gas sector liberalisation. The paper is motivated by the increasingly tense debate in continental Europe, UK and the US on the security of long-term gas supply. We discuss the main issues regarding long-term contracts, i.e. the changing role of the flexibility clause, the effect of abandoning the destination clause, and the strategic behaviour of producers between long-term sales and spot-sales. The literature suggests consumers and producers benefit from risk hedging through long-term contracts. Furthermore long-term contracts may reduce exercise of market power. This was argued to benefit consumers at the ‘expense’ of producers’ profits. Our analysis shows if the long-run demand elasticity is significantly lower than the short-run elasticity, both strategic producers and consumers benefit from lower prices and larger market volume. Some policy implications of the findings are also discussed.

From Transition to Competition -Dynamic Efficiency Analysis of Polish Electricity Distribution Companies

In this paper, we test the hypothesis that the economic transition toward a market economy increases the efficiency of firms. We study 32 Polish electricity distribution companies between 1997 and 2002, by applying common benchmarking methods to the panel: the non-parametric data envelopment analysis (DEA), the free disposal hull (FDH), and, as a parametric approach, the stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). We then measure and decompose productivity change with Malmquist indices. We find that the technical efficiency of the companies has indeed increased during the transition, while allocative efficiency has deteriorated. We also find significantly increasing returns to scale, suggesting that the regulatory authority should allow companies to merge into larger units.

EU Involvement in Electricity and Natural Gas Transmission Grid Tarification

Each semester the THINK project publishes two research reports based on topics proposed by the European Commission

The End of Transition: An Institutional Interpretation of Energy Sector Reform in Eastern Europe and the CIS

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the growing institutional divergence of systemic transformation in the countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Based upon the institutional theory of economic and legal systemic change, we empirically analyse reforms in a sector where the transformation process proved to be particularly tough: the energy sector. We test to what extent reforms reflect the ideal types seen in Western contexts (e.g. Anglo-Saxon and French), and to what extent new models have emerged. By generalising the results from the energy sector, one key finding emerges: starting from similar reform projects, ‘transition’ in Eastern Europe has led to fundamentally different outcomes, of which we identify three ideal types: i) the reforming Central/Eastern European market economy; ii) the post-Soviet mixed economy; and iii) the Caspian state economy.

Development Scenarios for the North and Baltic Sea Grid: A Welfare Economic Analysis

The North and Baltic Sea Grid is one of the largest pan-European infrastructure projects raising high hopes regarding the potential of harnessing large amounts of renewable electricity, but also concerns about the implementation in largely nationally dominated regulatory regimes. The paper develops three idealtype development scenarios and quantifies the technical-economic effects: i) the Status quo in which engagement in the North and Baltic Sea is largely nationally driven; ii) a Trade scenario dominated by bilateral contracts and point-to-point connections; and iii) a Meshed scenario of fully interconnected cables both in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, a truly pan-European infrastructure. We find that in terms of overall welfare, the meshed solution is superior; however, from a distributional perspective there are losers of such a scheme, e.g. the incumbent electricity generators in France, Germany, and Poland, and the consumers in low-price countries, e.g. Norway and Sweden. Merchant transmission financing, based on congestion rents only, does not seem to be a sustainable option to provide sufficient network capacities, and much of the investment will have to be regulated to come about. We also find strong interdependencies between offshore grid expansion and the subsequent onshore network.

Nodal Pricing in the German Electricity Sector - A Welfare Economics Analysis, with Particular Reference to Implementing Offshore Wind Capacities

This paper compares the results of different pricing systems in the German electricity sector. In particular,we compare a competitive nodal pricing approach to a cost minimization scenario under a uniform price. The model also simulates the effects of increasing offshore wind energy in the North Sea, from the current 0 GW to 8 and 13 GW, respectively. Our model of the German electricity system includes 425 lines and 310 nodes of the 380-kV and the 220-kV grid. Power flows are calculated based on the DC Load Flow Model using a slightly modified version of the traditional approach (Schweppe et al., 1988, Stigler and Todem, 2005). Demand is proxied by linear demand functions that are regionally differentiated. Our results show that the nodal pricing regime is more efficient than uniform pricing and that offshore wind input leads to a significant welfare gain. The model also indicates that 8 GW offshore wind would be accommodated by the current network without significant investments.