Claudia Kemfert

The Environmental and Economic Effects of European Emissions Trading

Abstract In this article, we analyse the effects of emissions trading in Europe, with special reference to Germany. We look at the value of the flexibility gained by trading compared to fixed quotas. The analysis is undertaken with a modified version of the GTAP-E model using the latest GTAP version 6 database. It is based on the national allocation plans (NAP) as submitted to and approved by the EU. We find that, in a regional emissions trading scheme, Germany, Great Britain and the Czech Republic are the main sellers of emissions permits, while Belgium, Denmark, Finland and Sweden are the main buyers. The welfare gains from regional emissions trading—for the trading sectors only—are largest for Belgium, Denmark and Great Britain; smaller for Finland and Sweden, and smallest for Germany and other regions. When we take into account the economy-wide and terms-of-trade effects of emissions trading, however, (negative) terms-of-trade effects can offset the (positive) allocative efficiency gains for the cases of the Netherlands and Italy, while all other regions end up with positive net welfare gains. All regions, however, experienced increases in real GDP as a result of regional emissions trading.

What About Coal? Interactions between Climate Policies and the Global Steam Coal Market Until 2030

Because of economic growth and a strong increase in global energy demand the demand for fossil fuels and therefore also greenhouse gas emissions are increasing, although climate policy should lead to the opposite effect. The coal market is of special relevance as coal is available in many countries and often the first choice to meet energy demand. In this paper we assess possible interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market. Possible market adjustments between demand regions through market effects are investigated with a numerical model of the global steam coal market: the “COALMOD-World” model. This equilibrium model computes future trade flows, infrastructure investments and prices until 2030. We investigate three specific designs of climate policy: a unilateral European climate policy, an Indonesian export-limiting policy and a fast-roll out of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the broader context of climate policy and market constraints. We find that market adjustment effects in the coal market can have significant positive and negative impacts on the effectiveness of climate policies.

The European Electricity and Climate Policy—Complement or Substitute?

The European electricity policy is intended to increase market competitiveness and liberalisation. The European climate policy is directed toward substantial reductions in greenhouse-gas emission and a significant increase in the use of renewable energy for electricity production. Both policies affect European utilities considerably. As a consequence, only those utilities that can produce electricity with cost-efficient and environment-friendly technologies will gain a comparative market advantage. The author investigates the impacts of the European energy and climate policy initiatives on the electricity market. It emerges that emissions trading leads to higher electricity prices and triggers a substitution process—from the use of coal to the use of gas and renewable technologies. Both policies have complementary effects, but only because the electricity market is not yet fully competitive.

German nuclear phase-out policy: Effects on European electricity wholesale prices, emission prices, conventional power plant investments and eletricity trade

The German decision to finally phase-out nuclear electricity has led to a debate on its effects on electricity prices, emission prices in the European emission trading system, as well as on international electricity trade. We investigate these effects with a Electricity market model for Europe with investments in power plants under oligopolistic conditions in Germany. We find modest price increases on the German wholesale market by the mid-term 2020 and an effect of the accelerated nuclear phase- out of between four and twelve percent. Moreover, the increase in the emission allowance prices due to the change in nuclear policy is between 1:8 and 3 Euro per ton of CO2 by the same period. The large variations in our results are induced by four combinations of the European emission trading policy and the success of the German energy efficiency policy. Most pronounced price effects are found in scenarios with a successful energy savings policy, which acts as a substitute for new power plants. Moreover, the tighter the emission trading system is, the larger are the effects of the accelerated phase-out on electricity and emission prices. Under a tight system, however, investments in conventional generation are likely to be dominated by natural gas fired plants since the decrease of utilization rates induced by renewable energies are more important for coal fired power plants with their relative high investment costs.

The Effect of Market Power on Electricity Storage Utilization: The Case of Pumped Hydro Storage in Germany

In this paper, we develop the game-theoretic electricity market model ElStorM that includes the possibility of strategic electricity storage. We apply the model to the German electricity market and analyze different realistic and counterfactual cases of strategic and non-strategic pumped hydro storage utilization by different players. We find that the utilization of storage capacities depends on the operator and its ability to exert market power both regarding storage and conventional generation capacities. The distribution of storage capacities among players also matters. A general finding is that strategic operators tend to under-utilize their storage capacities. This affects generation patterns of conventional technologies and market outcomes. Strategic under-utilization of storage capacities might also diminish their potential for renewable energy integration. Accordingly, economic regulation of existing and future storage capacities may be necessary, depending on policy objectives. We also find that the introduction of electricity storage generally increases overall welfare, while outcomes vary between different cases. Strategic storage utilization decreases consumer rent compared to non-strategic storage utilization. However, this effect is less pronounced if storage capacities are distributed among several players.

Tropical Cyclone Losses in the USA and the Impact of Climate Change: A Trend Analysis Based on a New Dataset

Economic losses caused by tropical cyclones have increased dramatically. It can be assumed that most losses are due to increased prosperity and a greater tendency for people to settle in exposed areas, but also that the growing incidence of severe cyclones is due to climate change. This paper aims to isolate the socio-economic effects and ascertain the potential impact of climate change on this trend. Storm losses for the period 1950-2005 have been adjusted to 2005 socio-economic values so that any remaining trend cannot be ascribed to socio-economic developments. In the period 1971-2005, losses excluding socio-economic effects show an annual increase of 4% per annum.

Emissions trading in Europe: Effective tool or flight of fancy?

ConclusionThe NAPs must be compatible with the climate goals and emissions reduction targets. Within the first period there will be no concrete sanction mechanism if countries fail to achieve their target, as is planned for later periods. A stringent allocation of allowances would prevent too high a burden on private households and the transport sector. In addition, it would also increase the incentive for other flexible mechanisms such as Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) and (later on) Joint Implementation (Jl). Conversely, some important aspects of the trading system, such as the treatment of newcomers or how to react to the dynamics of the market, are not regulated at the European level. This provides a large scope for strategic action and creates uncertainties.In Germany as well as in many other countries, negotiations between politicians and industrial lobbyists has led to a less effective emissions trading system. It is questionable whether there will be significant emission trading at all. The climate goal cannot be reached if industries get the emissions allowances that they need to continue business as usual. In the future, it would be desirable to harmonise the specific rules of the initial allocation plan among all European countries in order to avoid strategic behaviour and a weakening of the entire trading system.

Simulation of Economic Losses from Tropical Cyclones in the Years 2015 and 2050: The Effects of Anthropogenic Climate Change and Growing Wealth

This paper simulates the increase in the average annual loss from tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic for the years 2015 and 2050. The simulation is based on assumptions concerning wealth trends in the regions affected by the storms, considered by the change in material assets (capital stock). Further assumptions are made about the trend in storm intensity resulting from anthropogenic climate change. The simulations use a stochastic model that models the annual storm loss from the number of storms and the loss per storm event. The paper demonstrates that increasing wealth will continue to be the principle loss driver in the future (average annual loss in 2015 +32%, in 2050 +308%). But climate change will also lead to higher losses (average annual loss in 2015 +4%, in 2050 +11%). In order to reduce the uncertainties surrounding the assumptions on the trend in capital stock and storm intensity, a sensitivity analysis was carried out, based on the assumptions from current studies on the future costs for tropical storms.

A Welfare Analysis of the Electricity Transmission Regulatory Regime in Germany

We analyze the current regulatory regime for electricity transmission in Germany, which combines network planning with both cost-plus and revenue-cap regulations. After reviewing international experiences on transmission investment, we first make a qualitative assessment of the overall German regime. The German TSOs have in general incentives to overinvest and inefficiently inflate costs. We further develop two models to analyze the transmission planning process. In the first model there is no trade-off between transmission expansion and generation dispatch. This is a modeling set-up similar to the one actually used in the German transmission planning (Netzentwicklungsplan). A second model alternatively allows for such a trade-off, and thus represents an optimal way of transmission network planning. Simulations with the two models are carried out and compared so as to illustrate the amount of excessive transmission capacity investment and welfare losses associated with the current regime.

WIATEC: A World Integrated Assessment Model of Global Trade Environment and Climate Change

This paper describes the structure of the World Integrated Assessment model of global Trade, Environmental, and Climate change (WIATEC).The model consists of a multi-regional multi-sectoral core CGE model linked to a climate model. The core CGE is based on an existing global trade and environment model called GTAP-E (Truong, 1999; Burniaux and Truong, 2002). A suite of different and interchangeable modules are then built around this core to enable the model to be able to handle a range of different policy issues such as CO2 emissions, abatement, trading, non-CO2 (CH4 and N2O) emissions, land use land use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities, and changing technologies in the electricity generation sector. The approach which uses a core model structure with different additional modules built around this core structure allows the overall model to be flexible and can be adapted to a range of different policy issues. We illustrate the usefulness of this approach in a policy experiment which looks at the interaction between emissions trading scheme and the promotion of renewable energy targets in the European Union climate policy.