Christina Magill

Regional ash fall hazard I: A probabilistic assessment methodology

Volcanic ash is one of the farthest-reaching volcanic hazards and ash produced by large magnitude explosive eruptions has the potential to affect communities over thousands of kilometres. Quantifying the hazard from ash fall is problematic, in part because of data limitations that make eruption characteristics uncertain but also because, given an eruption, the distribution of ash is then controlled by time and altitude-varying wind conditions. Any one location may potentially be affected by ash falls from one, or a number of, volcanoes so that volcano-specific studies may not fully capture the ash fall hazard for communities in volcanically active areas. In an attempt to deal with these uncertainties, this paper outlines a probabilistic framework for assessing ash fall hazard on a regional scale. The methodology employs stochastic simulation techniques and is based upon generic principles that could be applied to any area, but is here applied to the Asia-Pacific region. Average recurrence intervals for eruptions greater than or equal to Volcanic Explosivity Index 4 were established for 190 volcanoes in the region, based upon the eruption history of each volcano and, where data were lacking, the averaged eruptive behaviour of global analogous volcanoes. Eruption histories are drawn from the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program catalogue of Holocene events and unpublished data, with global analogues taken from volcanoes of the same type category: Caldera, Large Cone, Shield, Lava dome or Small Cone. Simulated are 190,000 plausible eruption scenarios, with ash dispersal for each determined using an advection–diffusion model and local wind conditions. Key uncertainties are described by probability distributions. Modelled results include the annual probability of exceeding given ash thicknesses, summed over all eruption scenarios and volcanoes. A companion paper describes the results obtained for the Asia-Pacific region

Observations of tephra fall impacts from the 2011 Shinmoedake eruption, Japan

The 2011 eruption of Shinmoedake, Japan, deposited tephra across Miyazaki prefecture impacting both urban and rural environments. We provide an overview of the impacts, management and recovery of a modern city, infrastructure networks and a diverse agricultural region following this moderate sized explosive eruption, focusing on four key sectors. Cleanup of tephra was time consuming, physically demanding and costly for residents, businesses and municipal authorities. The agricultural sector sustained large initial impacts with smothering, loading and abrasion of crops, soils and greenhouses. However, extreme concerns at the time of the eruption were not realised, with farming operations experiencing limited long-term effects. There were few disruptions to electrical networks due to resilient insulator design, a successful cleaning program, relatively coarse tephra and dry conditions. Cancellations and delays occurred on three rail lines resulting primarily from mechanical failure of track switches and loss of electrical contact between train wheels and tracks. Both residents and organisations exhibited high levels of adaptive capacity in response to the event and utilised regional and national networks to obtain information on past events and recovery strategies. The combination of relatively short eruption duration, well resourced and coordinated organisations and resilient infrastructure networks contributed to a strong recovery.

Estimating building vulnerability to volcanic ash fall for insurance and other purposes

Volcanic ash falls are one of the most widespread and frequent volcanic hazards, and are produced by all explosive volcanic eruptions. Ash falls are arguably the most disruptive volcanic hazard because of their ability to affect large areas and to impact a wide range of assets, even at relatively small thicknesses. From an insurance perspective, the most valuable insured assets are buildings. Ash fall vulnerability curves or functions, which relate the magnitude of ash fall to likely damage, are the most developed for buildings, although there have been important recent advances for agriculture and infrastructure. In this paper, we focus on existing vulnerability functions developed for volcanic ash fall impact on buildings, and apply them to a hypothetical building portfolio impacted by a modern-day Tambora 1815 eruption scenario. We compare and contrast the different developed functions and discuss some of the issues surrounding estimation of potential building damage following a volcanic eruption. We found substantial variability in the different vulnerability estimates, which contribute to large uncertainties when estimating potential building damage and loss. Given the lack of detailed and published studies of building damage resulting from ash fall this is not surprising, although it also appears to be the case for other natural hazards for which there are far more empirical damage data. Notwithstanding the potential limitations of some empirical data in constraining vulnerability functions, efforts are required to improve our estimates of building damage under ash fall loading through the collection of damage data, experimental testing and perhaps theoretical failure analysis. For insurance purposes, the current building typologies provided for use with vulnerability functions are too detailed to map to the relatively limited information on building types that is typically available to insurers. Thus, efforts to provide vulnerability functions that can be used where only limited information is available regarding building types would also be valuable, both for insurers and for at-risk areas that have not been subject to detailed building vulnerability surveys.

A Distributed Computing Workflow for Modelling Environmental Flows in Complex Terrain

Numerical modelling of extreme environmental flows such as flash floods, avalanches and mudflows can be used to understand fundamental processes, predict outcomes and assess the loss potential of future events. These extreme flows can produce complicated and dynamic free surfaces as a result of interactions with the terrain and built environment. In order to resolve these features that may affect flows, high resolution, accurate terrain models are required. However, terrain models can be difficult and costly to acquire, and often lack detail of important flow steering structures such as bridges or debris. To overcome these issues we have developed a photogrammetry workflow for reconstructing high spatial resolution three dimensional terrain models. The workflow utilises parallel and distributed computing to provide inexpensive terrain models that can then be used in numerical simulations of environmental flows. A section of Quebrada San Lazaro within the city of Arequipa, Peru is used as a case study to demonstrate the construction and usage of the terrain models and applicability of the workflow for a flash flood scenario.

Significance and timing of the mid-17th-century eruption of Long Island, Papua New Guinea

Tibito Tephra was first recorded in the central highlands of Papua New Guinea (PNG) in 1971. By the late 1970s, the tephra had been mapped across tens of thousands of square kilometres, traced to its source on Long Island in the Bismarck Sea, and linked to pyroclastic density currents in the Matapun Beds on the island. With a tephra fall volume >10 km3, this eruption was clearly one of the 10 largest globally in the past 600 years. Although almost certainly in the AD 17th or 18th centuries, determining just when this VEI 6 eruption occurred has proved difficult. Whether this eruption occurred before or after William Dampier sailed past, named, described and drew a profile of Long Island has been debated also. Dating the Long Island eruption has implications for assessing the rate of revegetation of the island, recolonisation of the island and caldera lake, Jared Diamond’s theory of ‘supertramp’ birds, correlations between major eruptions and ice core chronologies, the constant rate of supply model of 210Pb concentration in lake sediments, reservoir effects in Lake Kutubu in the southern highlands of PNG, the timing of a prehistoric phase of agriculture in the Western Highlands and the longevity of oral histories recording a taim tudak (time of darkness) when sand fell from the sky, houses collapsed, crops were ruined and people died. This paper reviews early dates based on radiocarbon, 210Pb and paleosecular magnetic variation, historical reports and genealogical dates from oral histories, and speculation based on tree ring and ice core evidence. Analyses of 10 new radiocarbon dates from the Matapun Beds on Long Island are reported. Our best estimate places the eruption between 1651 and 1671 AD with a 95.4% probability and between 1655 and 1665 AD with a 68.2% probability.

Probabilistic hazard modelling of rain-triggered lahars

Probabilistic quantification of lahar hazard is an important component of lahar risk assessment and mitigation. Here we propose a new approach to probabilistic lahar hazard assessment through coupling a lahar susceptibility model with a shallow-layer lahar flow model. Initial lahar volumes and their probabilities are quantified using the lahar susceptibility model which establishes a relationship between the volume of mobilised sediment and exceedance probabilities from rainfall intensity-frequency-duration curves. Rainfall-triggered lahar hazard zones can then be delineated probabilistically by using the mobilised volumes as an input into lahar flow models. While the applicability of this model is limited to rain-triggered lahars, this approach is able to reduce the reliance on historic and empirical estimates of lahar hazard and creates an opportunity for the generation of purely quantitative probabilistic lahar hazard maps. The new approach is demonstrated through the generation of probabilistic hazard maps for lahars originating from the Mangatoetoenui Glacier, Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand.

Evaluating relative tephra fall hazard and risk in the Asia-Pacific region

With increasing population densities and expanding urban boundaries, the potential for explosive volcanic eruptions to have adverse impacts upon urban areas is on the rise. This is particularly true for volcanoes along subduction zones, because they are almost exclusively explosive and often coincident with large populations. Explosive eruption hazards such as tephra fall have the potential to affect very large areas and numbers of people; populations in volcanic areas may therefore be exposed to tephra falls from more than one volcano. In this study we have simulated large numbers of plausible explosive eruptions of Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 4 or greater for each of 141 volcanoes in the Asia-Pacific region. Tephra fall footprints are aggregated for 16 major cities, according to their probability of occurrence. This addresses an emerging need for international agencies and organizations to conduct regional-scale assessments, where at-risk areas can be compared on a like-for-like basis. Hazard in cities near subduction zones is two to three orders of magnitude greater than for those farther away. By combining our hazard estimates with indicators describing the exposure and vulnerability of people and infrastructure, tephra fall risk scores were calculated for each city. Risk is evaluated separately for human populations and potential economic impact, with the highest human risk scores calculated for Manila and the highest economic scores for Tokyo. The volcanoes with the greatest hazard contribution in the very populous cities of Manila, Tokyo, and Jakarta were identified as Taal (Manila), Fujisan (Tokyo), and six volcanoes equally (Jakarta). While this study provides a transparent and consistent method for assessing regional volcanic hazard and risk, there are challenges associated with the data-poor setting and we conclude by discussing what is required in order to improve regional tephra fall hazard and risk assessments. This study provides a regional-scale assessment that cannot replace hazard and risk information provided locally by official organizations.

Communication Demands of Volcanic Ashfall Events

Volcanic ash is generated in explosive volcanic eruptions, dispersed by prevailing winds and may be deposited onto communities hundreds or even thousands of kilometres away. The wide geographic reach of ashfalls makes them the volcanic hazard most likely to affect the greatest numbers of people. However, forecasting how much ash will fall, where, and with what characteristics, is a major challenge. Varying social contexts, ashfall characteristics, and eruption durations create unique challenges in determining impacts, which are wide-ranging and often poorly understood. Consequently, a suite of communication strategies must be applied across a variety of different settings. Broadly speaking, the level of impact depends upon the amount of ash deposited and its characteristics (hazard), as well as the numbers and distribution of people and assets (exposure), and the ability of people and assets to cope with the ashfall (resilience and/or vulnerability). Greater knowledge of the likely impact can support mitigation actions, crisis planning, and emergency management activities. Careful, considered, and well-planned communication prior to, and during, a volcanic ashfall crisis can substantially reduce physical, economic and psychosocial impacts. We describe the factors contributing to the complex communication environment associated with ashfall hazards, describe currently available information products and tools, and reflect on lessons from a range of case-study ashfall events. We discuss currently-available communication tools for the key sectors of public health, agriculture and critical infrastructure, and information demands created by ash clean-up operations. We conclude with reflections on the particular challenges posed by long-term eruptions and implications for recovery after ashfall.