Christine Frömming

Importance of representing optical depth variability for estimates of global line-shaped contrail radiative forcing

Estimates of the global radiative forcing by line-shaped contrails differ mainly due to the large uncertainty in contrail optical depth. Most contrails are optically thin so that their radiative forcing is roughly proportional to their optical depth and increases with contrail coverage. In recent assessments, the best estimate of mean contrail radiative forcing was significantly reduced, because global climate model simulations pointed at lower optical depth values than earlier studies. We revise these estimates by comparing the probability distribution of contrail optical depth diagnosed with a climate model with the distribution derived from a microphysical, cloud-scale model constrained by satellite observations over the United States. By assuming that the optical depth distribution from the cloud model is more realistic than that from the climate model, and by taking the difference between the observed and simulated optical depth over the United States as globally representative, we quantify uncertainties in the climate model’s diagnostic contrail parameterization. Revising the climate model results accordingly increases the global mean radiative forcing estimate for line-shaped contrails by a factor of 3.3, from 3.5 mW/m2 to 11.6 mW/m2 for the year 1992. Furthermore, the satellite observations and the cloud model point at higher global mean optical depth of detectable contrails than often assumed in radiative transfer (off-line) studies. Therefore, we correct estimates of contrail radiative forcing from off-line studies as well. We suggest that the global net radiative forcing of line-shaped persistent contrails is in the range 8–20 mW/m2 for the air traffic in the year 2000.

Aviation-induced radiative forcing and surface temperature change in dependency of the emission altitude

[1] The present study provides a detailed assessment of the net impact of global flight altitude changes on radiative forcing and temperature response. Changes in contrail coverage, chemical perturbations (H2O, O3 ,C H4) and associated radiative forcings were determined from simulations with a quasi CTM. Future development of global mean radiative forcing and temperature response was calculated by means of a linear response model. The range of possible effects arising from various future scenarios is analyzed, and tradeoffs between partially counteracting short- and long term effects are studied. Present-day global mean radiative forcing of short-lived species and CH4 is reduced when flying lower, whereas that of CO2 increases. The opposite effect is found for higher flight altitudes. For increasing and sustained emissions, the climate impact changes are dominated by the effect of short-lived species, yielding a reduction for lower flight altitudes and an increase for higher flight altitudes. For future scenarios involving a reduction or termination of emissions, radiative forcing of short-lived species decreases immediately, that of longer lived species decreases gradually, and respective temperature responses start to decay slowly. After disappearance of the shorter lived effects, only the counteracting CO2 effect remains, resulting in an increased climate effect for lower flight altitudes and a decrease for higher flight altitudes. Incorporating knowledge about the altitude sensitivity of aviation climate impact in the route planning process offers substantial mitigation potential. Scenarios and time horizons for the evaluation of future effects of mitigation instruments must be chosen carefully depending on the mitigation aim.

Climate optimized air transport

Aviation climate impact is caused by CO2 and non-CO2 emissions where the climate effect of non-CO2 emissions depends on weather and aircraft route. An aviation system with minimum climate impact differs from a system with minimum emissions. Considerable potential exists to reduce the climate impact of aviation by weather- and cost-dependent climate-optimized air traffic management (“smart routing”) and aircraft design (“green aircraft”). Current research provides a unique opportunity to systematically investigate the trade-offs between various mitigation concepts and cost functions. Here various approaches are presented to minimize the climate impact on a climatological and weather basis, some being applicable to aircraft designs for reduced climate impact and others offering alternative operational concepts.

Are Climate Restricted Areas a Viable Interim Climate Mitigation Option over the North Atlantic

In order to achieve global environmental goals like the 2-degree-target, as well as to reduce longer-term emission levels, mitigation measures have to be introduced, preferably as early as possible. In aviation, the implementation of the most promising mitigation strategies, e.g. climate optimized routing, is linked with several technical challenges. An early introduction of interim mitigation strategies, which bridges the time period until most auspicious approaches reach market maturity, may pave the way for a prompt reduction of aviations induced global warming. Within this study, climate restricted airspaces (CRA) are de�ned in analogy to military exclusion zones. Climate cost functions (CCF) characterize the environmental impact caused by an aircraft emission at a certain location and time. To estimate the monthly climate sensitivity of an area, CCFs are derived with the climate-response model AirClim. Within this study, we close regions with climate sensitivities greater than a threshold value for a period of time (e.g. a month) and a�ected ight trajectories are re-routed cost optimally around them. The evaluation of the climate impact mitigation potential of climate restricted areas is performed based on optimal control techniques. Monetary costs are integrated into the cost functional of the Trajectory Optimization Module (TOM). Further, high penalties are introduced within restricted airspaces in order to ensure the avoidance of CRA. The cost-bene�t potential (climate impact mitigation vs. rise in operating costs) for this interim mitigation concept is investigated for varying threshold values for the closure of airspace and compared with climate optimized trajectories (COT) for di�erent routes and seasons of the year.