Christoph M. Rheinberger

Which fish should I eat? Perspectives influencing fish consumption choices.

Background: Diverse perspectives have influenced fish consumption choices. Objectives: We summarized the issue of fish consumption choice from toxicological, nutritional, ecological, and economic points of view; identified areas of overlap and disagreement among these viewpoints; and reviewed effects of previous fish consumption advisories. Methods: We reviewed published scientific literature, public health guidelines, and advisories related to fish consumption, focusing on advisories targeted at U.S. populations. However, our conclusions apply to groups having similar fish consumption patterns. Discussion: There are many possible combinations of matters related to fish consumption, but few, if any, fish consumption patterns optimize all domains. Fish provides a rich source of protein and other nutrients, but because of contamination by methylmercury and other toxicants, higher fish intake often leads to greater toxicant exposure. Furthermore, stocks of wild fish are not adequate to meet the nutrient demands of the growing world population, and fish consumption choices also have a broad economic impact on the fishing industry. Most guidance does not account for ecological and economic impacts of different fish consumption choices. Conclusion: Despite the relative lack of information integrating the health, ecological, and economic impacts of different fish choices, clear and simple guidance is necessary to effect desired changes. Thus, more comprehensive advice can be developed to describe the multiple impacts of fish consumption. In addition, policy and fishery management inter-ventions will be necessary to ensure long-term availability of fish as an important source of human nutrition.

Learning from the past: statistical performance measures for avalanche warning services

Avalanche warning services (AWS) are operated to protect communities and traffic lines in avalanche-prone regions of the Alps and other mountain ranges. In times of high avalanche danger, these services may decide to close roads or to evacuate settlements. Closing decisions are based on field observations, avalanche release statistics, and snow forecasts issued by weather services. Because of the spatial variability in the snowpack and the insufficient understanding of avalanche triggering mechanisms, closing decisions are characterized by large uncertainties and the information based on which AWS have to decide is always incomplete. In this paper, we illustrate how signal detection theory can be applied to make better use of the information at hand. The proposed framework allows the evaluation of past road closures and points to how the decision performance of AWS could be improved. To illustrate the proposed framework, we evaluate the decision performance of two AWS in Switzerland and discuss the advantages of such a formalized decision-making approach.

The welfare value of FDA's mercury-in-fish advisory: A dynamic reanalysis

Assessing the welfare impact of consumer health advisories is a thorny task. Recently, Shimshack and Ward (2010) studied how U.S. households responded to FDAs 2001 mercury-in-fish advisory. They found that the average at-risk household reduced fish consumption by 21%, resulting in a 17%-reduction in mercury exposure at the cost of a 21%-reduction in cardioprotective omega-3 fatty acids. Based on a static assessment of the health costs and benefits Shimshack and Ward concluded that the advisory policy resulted in an overall consumer welfare loss. In this note, we propose a dynamic assessment that links the long-term cardiovascular health effects of the advisory to life-cycle consumption. We find that under reasonable assumptions the welfare loss might be much larger than suggested. Our analysis highlights the importance of accounting for dynamic effects when evaluating persistent changes in exposure to environmental health risks.

The value of disease prevention vs treatment

We present an integrated valuation model for diseases that are life-threatening. The model extends the standard one-period value-per-statistical-life model to three health prospects: healthy, ill, and dead. We derive willingness-to-pay values for prevention efforts that reduce a diseases incidence rate as well as for treatments that lower the corresponding health deterioration and mortality rates. We find that the demand value of prevention always exceeds that of treatment. People often overweight small risks and underweight large ones. We use the rank dependent utility framework to explore how the demand for prevention and treatment alters when people evaluate probabilities in a non-linear manner. For incidence and mortality rates associated with common types of cancers, the inverse-S shaped probability weighting found in experimental studies leads to a significant increase in the demand values of both treatment and prevention.

Catastrophe Aversion and Risk Equity in an Interdependent World

Catastrophe aversion and risk equity are important concepts in both risk management theory and practice. Keeney (1980) was the first to formally define these concepts. He demonstrated that the two concepts are always in conflict. Yet this result is based on the assumption that individual risks are independent and has thus limited relevance for real world catastrophic events. We extend Keeney’s result to dependent risks and derive the conditions under which more correlation between two risks induces a more catastrophic risk. We then generalize some of the results for multiple correlated risks.