Christophe Declercq

Effects of long-term exposure to air pollution on natural-cause mortality: an analysis of 22 European cohorts within the multicentre ESCAPE project

BACKGROUND Few studies on long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality have been reported from Europe. Within the multicentre European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE), we aimed to investigate the association between natural-cause mortality and long-term exposure to several air pollutants. METHODS We used data from 22 European cohort studies, which created a total study population of 367,251 participants. All cohorts were general population samples, although some were restricted to one sex only. With a strictly standardised protocol, we assessed residential exposure to air pollutants as annual average concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with diameters of less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5), less than 10 μm (PM10), and between 10 μm and 2.5 μm (PMcoarse), PM2.5 absorbance, and annual average concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NOx), with land use regression models. We also investigated two traffic intensity variables-traffic intensity on the nearest road (vehicles per day) and total traffic load on all major roads within a 100 m buffer. We did cohort-specific statistical analyses using confounder models with increasing adjustment for confounder variables, and Cox proportional hazards models with a common protocol. We obtained pooled effect estimates through a random-effects meta-analysis. FINDINGS The total study population consisted of 367,251 participants who contributed 5,118,039 person-years at risk (average follow-up 13.9 years), of whom 29,076 died from a natural cause during follow-up. A significantly increased hazard ratio (HR) for PM2.5 of 1.07 (95% CI 1.02-1.13) per 5 μg/m(3) was recorded. No heterogeneity was noted between individual cohort effect estimates (I(2) p value=0.95). HRs for PM2.5 remained significantly raised even when we included only participants exposed to pollutant concentrations lower than the European annual mean limit value of 25 μg/m(3) (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00-1.12) or below 20 μg/m(3) (1.07, 1.01-1.13). INTERPRETATION Long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution was associated with natural-cause mortality, even within concentration ranges well below the present European annual mean limit value. FUNDING European Communitys Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007-2011).

Development of Land Use Regression Models for PM2.5, PM2.5 Absorbance, PM10 and PMcoarse in 20 European Study Areas; Results of the ESCAPE Project

Land Use Regression (LUR) models have been used increasingly for modeling small-scale spatial variation in air pollution concentrations and estimating individual exposure for participants of cohort studies. Within the ESCAPE project, concentrations of PM(2.5), PM(2.5) absorbance, PM(10), and PM(coarse) were measured in 20 European study areas at 20 sites per area. GIS-derived predictor variables (e.g., traffic intensity, population, and land-use) were evaluated to model spatial variation of annual average concentrations for each study area. The median model explained variance (R(2)) was 71% for PM(2.5) (range across study areas 35-94%). Model R(2) was higher for PM(2.5) absorbance (median 89%, range 56-97%) and lower for PM(coarse) (median 68%, range 32- 81%). Models included between two and five predictor variables, with various traffic indicators as the most common predictors. Lower R(2) was related to small concentration variability or limited availability of predictor variables, especially traffic intensity. Cross validation R(2) results were on average 8-11% lower than model R(2). Careful selection of monitoring sites, examination of influential observations and skewed variable distributions were essential for developing stable LUR models. The final LUR models are used to estimate air pollution concentrations at the home addresses of participants in the health studies involved in ESCAPE.

Impact of the 2003 heatwave on all-cause mortality in 9 French cities.

Background: A heatwave occurred in France in August 2003, with an accompanying excess of all-cause mortality. This study quantifies this excess mortality and investigates a possible harvesting effect in the few weeks after the heatwave. Methods: A time-series study using a Poisson regression model with regression splines to control for nonlinear confounders was used to analyze the correlation between heatwave variable and mortality in 9 French cities. Results: After controlling for long-term and seasonal time trends and the usual effects of temperature and air pollution, we estimated that 3,096 extra deaths resulted from the heatwave. The maximum daily relative risk of mortality during the heatwave (compared with expected deaths at that time of year) ranged from 1.16 in Le Havre to 5.00 in Paris. There was little evidence of mortality displacement in the few weeks after the heatwave, with an estimated deficit of 253 deaths at the end of the period. Conclusions: The heatwave in France during August 2003 was associated with a large increase in the number of deaths. The impact estimated using a time-series design was consistent with crude previous estimates of the impact of the heatwave. This finding suggests that neither air pollution nor long-term and seasonal trends confounded previous estimates. There was no evidence to suggest that the extras deaths associated with the heatwave were simply brought forward in time.

Twenty five year mortality and air pollution: results from the French PAARC survey.

Aims and Methods: Long term effects of air pollution on mortality were studied in 14 284 adults who resided in 24 areas from seven French cities when enrolled in the PAARC survey (air pollution and chronic respiratory diseases) in 1974. Daily measurements of sulphur dioxide, total suspended particles, black smoke, nitrogen dioxide, and nitric oxide were made in 24 areas for three years (1974–76). Cox proportional hazards models controlling for individual confounders (smoking, educational level, body mass index, occupational exposure) were applied, and frailty models used to take into account spatial correlation. Indicators of air pollution were the mean concentration. Results: Models were run before and after exclusion of six area monitors influenced by local traffic (NO/NO2 >3 in ppb). After exclusion of these areas, analyses showed that adjusted risk ratios (95% CI) for TSP, BS, NO2, and NO for non-accidental mortality were 1.05 (1.02 to 1.08), 1.07 (1.03 to 1.10), 1.14 (1.03 to 1.25), and 1.11 (1.05 to 1.17) for 10 μg/m3 respectively. Consistent patterns for lung cancer and cardiopulmonary causes were observed. Conclusions: Urban air pollution assessed in the 1970s was associated with increased mortality over 25 years in France.

The relation between temperature, ozone, and mortality in nine French cities during the heat wave of 2003.

Background During August 2003, record high temperatures were observed across Europe, and France was the country most affected. During this period, elevated ozone concentrations were measured all over the country. Questions were raised concerning the contribution of O3 to the health impact of the summer 2003 heat wave. Methods We used a time-series design to analyze short-term effects of temperature and O3 pollution on mortality. Counts of deaths were regressed on temperatures and O3 levels, controlling for possible confounders: long-term trends, season, influenza outbreaks, day of the week, and bank holiday effects. For comparison with previous results of the nine cities, we calculated pooled excess risk using a random effect approach and an empirical Bayes approach. Findings For the nine cities, the excess risk of death is significant (1.01%; 95% confidence interval, 0.58–1.44) for an increase of 10 μg/m3 in O3 level. For the 3–17 August 2003 period, the excess risk of deaths linked to O3 and temperatures together ranged from 10.6% in Le Havre to 174.7% in Paris. When we compared the relative contributions of O3 and temperature to this joint excess risk, the contribution of O3 varied according to the city, ranging from 2.5% in Bordeaux to 85.3% in Toulouse. Interpretation We observed heterogeneity among the nine cities not only for the joint effect of O3 and temperatures, but also for the relative contribution of each factor. These results confirmed that in urban areas O3 levels have a non-negligible impact in terms of public health.

Assessing the public health impacts of urban air pollution in 25 European cities: results of the Aphekom project.

INTRODUCTION The Aphekom project aimed to provide new, clear, and meaningful information on the health effects of air pollution in Europe. Among others, it assessed the health and monetary benefits of reducing short and long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) and ozone in 25 European cities. METHOD Health impact assessments were performed using routine health and air quality data, and a common methodology. Two scenarios were considered: a decrease of the air pollutant levels by a fixed amount and a decrease to the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines. Results were economically valued by using a willingness to pay approach for mortality and a cost of illness approach for morbidity. RESULTS In the 25 cities, the largest health burden was attributable to the impacts of chronic exposure to PM2.5. Complying with the WHO guideline of 10 μg/m(3) in annual mean would add up to 22 months of life expectancy at age 30, depending on the city, corresponding to a total of 19,000 deaths delayed. The associated monetary gain would total some €31 billion annually, including savings on health expenditures, absenteeism and intangible costs such as well-being, life expectancy and quality of life. CONCLUSION European citizens are still exposed to concentrations exceeding the WHO recommendations. Aphekom provided robust estimates confirming that reducing urban air pollution would result in significant health and monetary gains in Europe. This work is particularly relevant now when the current EU legislation is being revised for an update in 2013.

Short-term associations between fine and coarse particles and hospital admissions for cardiorespiratory diseases in six French cities

Objectives: Little is known about the potential health effects of the coarse fraction of ambient particles. The aim of this study is to estimate the links between fine (PM2.5) and coarse particle (PM2.5−10) levels and cardiorespiratory hospitalisations in six French cities during 2000–2003. Methods: Data on the daily numbers of hospitalisations for respiratory, cardiovascular, cardiac and ischaemic heart diseases were collected. Associations between exposure indicators and hospitalisations were estimated in each city using a Poisson regression model, controlling for confounding factors (seasons, days of the week, holidays, influenza epidemics, pollen counts, temperature) and temporal trends. City-specific findings were combined to obtain excess relative risks (ERRs) associated with a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 and PM2.5−10 levels. Results: We found positive associations between indicators of particulate pollution and hospitalisations for respiratory infection, with an ERR of 4.4% (95% CI 0.9 to 8.0) for PM2.5−10 and 2.5% (95% CI 0.1 to 4.8) for PM2.5. Concerning respiratory diseases, no association was observed with PM2.5, whereas positive trends were found with PM2.5−10, with a significant association for the 0–14-year-old age group (ERR 6.2%, 95% CI 0.4 to 12.3). Concerning cardiovascular diseases, positive associations were observed between PM2.5 levels and each indicator, although some did not reach significance; trends with PM2.5−10 were weaker and non-significant except for ischaemic heart disease in the elderly (ERR 6.4%, 95% CI 1.6 to 11.4). Conclusions: In accordance with other studies, our results indicate that the coarse fraction may have a stronger effect than the fine fraction on some morbidity endpoints, especially respiratory diseases.

Associations between Fine and Coarse Particles and Mortality in Mediterranean Cities: Results from the MED-PARTICLES Project

Background: Few studies have investigated the independent health effects of different size fractions of particulate matter (PM) in multiple locations, especially in Europe. Objectives: We estimated the short-term effects of PM with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm (PM10), ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), and between 2.5 and 10 μm (PM2.5–10) on all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in 10 European Mediterranean metropolitan areas within the MED-PARTICLES project. Methods: We analyzed data from each city using Poisson regression models, and combined city-specific estimates to derive overall effect estimates. We evaluated the sensitivity of our estimates to co-pollutant exposures and city-specific model choice, and investigated effect modification by age, sex, and season. We applied distributed lag and threshold models to investigate temporal patterns of associations. Results: A 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with a 0.55% (95% CI: 0.27, 0.84%) increase in all-cause mortality (0–1 day cumulative lag), and a 1.91% increase (95% CI: 0.71, 3.12%) in respiratory mortality (0–5 day lag). In general, associations were stronger for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality than all-cause mortality, during warm versus cold months, and among those ≥ 75 versus < 75 years of age. Associations with PM2.5–10 were positive but not statistically significant in most analyses, whereas associations with PM10 seemed to be driven by PM2.5. Conclusions: We found evidence of adverse effects of PM2.5 on mortality outcomes in the European Mediterranean region. Associations with PM2.5–10 were positive but smaller in magnitude. Associations were stronger for respiratory mortality when cumulative exposures were lagged over 0–5 days, and were modified by season and age.

Development of Land Use Regression Models for Particle Composition in Twenty Study Areas in Europe

Land Use Regression (LUR) models have been used to describe and model spatial variability of annual mean concentrations of traffic related pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM). No models have yet been published of elemental composition. As part of the ESCAPE project, we measured the elemental composition in both the PM10 and PM2.5 fraction sizes at 20 sites in each of 20 study areas across Europe. LUR models for eight a priori selected elements (copper (Cu), iron (Fe), potassium (K), nickel (Ni), sulfur (S), silicon (Si), vanadium (V), and zinc (Zn)) were developed. Good models were developed for Cu, Fe, and Zn in both fractions (PM10 and PM2.5) explaining on average between 67 and 79% of the concentration variance (R(2)) with a large variability between areas. Traffic variables were the dominant predictors, reflecting nontailpipe emissions. Models for V and S in the PM10 and PM2.5 fractions and Si, Ni, and K in the PM10 fraction performed moderately with R(2) ranging from 50 to 61%. Si, NI, and K models for PM2.5 performed poorest with R(2) under 50%. The LUR models are used to estimate exposures to elemental composition in the health studies involved in ESCAPE.

Ambient air pollution and adult asthma incidence in six European cohorts (ESCAPE)

BACKGROUND Short-term exposure to air pollution has adverse effects among patients with asthma, but whether long-term exposure to air pollution is a cause of adult-onset asthma is unclear. OBJECTIVE We aimed to investigate the association between air pollution and adult onset asthma. METHODS Asthma incidence was prospectively assessed in six European cohorts. Exposures studied were annual average concentrations at home addresses for nitrogen oxides assessed for 23,704 participants (including 1,257 incident cases) and particulate matter (PM) assessed for 17,909 participants through ESCAPE land-use regression models and traffic exposure indicators. Meta-analyses of cohort-specific logistic regression on asthma incidence were performed. Models were adjusted for age, sex, overweight, education, and smoking and included city/area within each cohort as a random effect. RESULTS In this longitudinal analysis, asthma incidence was positively, but not significantly, associated with all exposure metrics, except for PMcoarse. Positive associations of borderline significance were observed for nitrogen dioxide [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.10; 95% CI: 0.99, 1.21 per 10 μg/m3; p = 0.10] and nitrogen oxides (adjusted OR = 1.04; 95% CI: 0.99, 1.08 per 20 μg/m3; p = 0.08). Nonsignificant positive associations were estimated for PM10 (adjusted OR = 1.04; 95% CI: 0.88, 1.23 per 10 μg/m3), PM2.5 (adjusted OR = 1.04; 95% CI: 0.88, 1.23 per 5 μg/m3), PM2.5absorbance (adjusted OR = 1.06; 95% CI: 0.95, 1.19 per 10-5/m), traffic load (adjusted OR = 1.10; 95% CI: 0.93, 1.30 per 4 million vehicles × meters/day on major roads in a 100-m buffer), and traffic intensity (adjusted OR = 1.10; 95% CI: 0.93, 1.30 per 5,000 vehicles/day on the nearest road). A nonsignificant negative association was estimated for PMcoarse (adjusted OR = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.87, 1.14 per 5 μg/m3). CONCLUSIONS Results suggest a deleterious effect of ambient air pollution on asthma incidence in adults. Further research with improved personal-level exposure assessment (vs. residential exposure assessment only) and phenotypic characterization is needed.