Alain Le Tertre

Confounding and Effect Modification in the Short-term Effects of Ambient Particles on Total Mortality: Results from 29 European Cities within the Aphea2 Project

We present the results of the Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach 2 (APHEA2) project on short-term effects of ambient particles on mortality with emphasis on effect modification. We used daily measurements for particulate matter less than 10 &mgr;m in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) and/or black smoke from 29 European cities. We considered confounding from other pollutants as well as meteorologic and chronologic variables. We investigated several variables describing the cities’ pollution, climate, population, and geography as potential effect modifiers. For the individual city analysis, generalized additive models extending Poisson regression, using a smoother to control for seasonal patterns, were applied. To provide quantitative summaries of the results and explain remaining heterogeneity, we applied second-stage regression models. The estimated increase in the daily number of deaths for all ages for a 10 &mgr;g/m3 increase in daily PM10 or black smoke concentrations was 0.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.4–0.8%], whereas for the elderly it was slightly higher. We found important effect modification for several of the variables studied. Thus, in a city with low average NO2, the estimated increase in daily mortality for an increase of 10 &mgr;g/m3 in PM10 was 0.19 (95% CI = 0.00–0.41), whereas in a city with high average NO2 it was 0.80% (95% CI = 0.67–0.93%); in a relatively cold climate the corresponding effect was 0.29% (95% CI = 0.16–0.42), whereas in a warm climate it was 0.82% (95% CI = 0.69–0.96); in a city with low standardized mortality rate it was 0.80% (95% CI = 0.65–0.95%), and in one with a high rate it was 0.43% (95% CI = 0.24–0.62). Our results confirm those previously reported on the effects of ambient particles on mortality. Furthermore, they show that the heterogeneity found in the effect parameters among cities reflects real effect modification, which is explained by specific city characteristics.

Has the impact of heat waves on mortality changed in France since the European heat wave of summer 2003? A study of the 2006 heat wave

BACKGROUND In July 2006, a lasting and severe heat wave occurred in Western Europe. Since the 2003 heat wave, several preventive measures and an alert system aiming at reducing the risks related to high temperatures have been set up in France by the health authorities and institutions. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of those measures, the observed excess mortality during the 2006 heat wave was compared to the expected excess mortality. METHODS A Poisson regression model relating the daily fluctuations in summer temperature and mortality in France from 1975 to 2003 was used to estimate the daily expected number of deaths over the period 2004-2006 as a function of the observed temperatures. RESULTS During the 2006 heat wave (from 11 to 28 July), about 2065 excess deaths occurred in France. Considering the observed temperatures and with the hypothesis that heat-related mortality had not changed since 2003, 6452 excess deaths were predicted for the period. The observed mortality during the 2006 heat wave was thus markedly less than the expected mortality (approximately 4400 less deaths). CONCLUSIONS The excess mortality during the 2006 heat wave, which was markedly lower than that predicted by the model, may be interpreted as a decrease in the populations vulnerability to heat, together with, since 2003, increased awareness of the risk related to extreme temperatures, preventive measures and the set-up of the warning system.

Impact of the 2003 heatwave on all-cause mortality in 9 French cities.

Background: A heatwave occurred in France in August 2003, with an accompanying excess of all-cause mortality. This study quantifies this excess mortality and investigates a possible harvesting effect in the few weeks after the heatwave. Methods: A time-series study using a Poisson regression model with regression splines to control for nonlinear confounders was used to analyze the correlation between heatwave variable and mortality in 9 French cities. Results: After controlling for long-term and seasonal time trends and the usual effects of temperature and air pollution, we estimated that 3,096 extra deaths resulted from the heatwave. The maximum daily relative risk of mortality during the heatwave (compared with expected deaths at that time of year) ranged from 1.16 in Le Havre to 5.00 in Paris. There was little evidence of mortality displacement in the few weeks after the heatwave, with an estimated deficit of 253 deaths at the end of the period. Conclusions: The heatwave in France during August 2003 was associated with a large increase in the number of deaths. The impact estimated using a time-series design was consistent with crude previous estimates of the impact of the heatwave. This finding suggests that neither air pollution nor long-term and seasonal trends confounded previous estimates. There was no evidence to suggest that the extras deaths associated with the heatwave were simply brought forward in time.

Chikungunya Disease Outbreak, Reunion Island

During 2005, the monthly CDR remained within expected range of statistical variation. From January through April 2006, respectively, monthly CDRs were 7.1%, 34.4%, 25.2%, and 8.3% higher than expected rates (p 75 years of age.

The temporal pattern of mortality responses to air pollution: a multicity assessment of mortality displacement.

Although the association between particulate matter and mortality or morbidity is generally accepted, controversy remains about the importance of the association. If it is due solely to the deaths of frail individuals, which are brought forward by only a brief period of time, the public health implications of the association are fewer than if there is an increase in the number of deaths. Recently, other research has addressed the mortality displacement issue in single-city analysis. We analyzed this issue with a distributed lag model in a multicity hierarchic modeling approach, within the Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach (APHEA-2) study. We fit a Poisson regression model and a polynomial distributed lag model with up to 40 days of delay in each city. In the second stage we combined the city-specific results. We found that the overall effect of particulate matter less than 10 &mgr;M in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) per 10 &mgr;g/m3 for the fourth-degree distributed lag model is a 1.61% increase in daily deaths (95% CI = 1.02–2.20), whereas the mean of PM10 on the same day and the previous day is associated with only a 0.70% increase in deaths (95% CI = 0.43–0.97). This result is unchanged using an unconstrained distributed lag model. Our study confirms that the effects observed in daily time-series studies are not due primarily to short-term mortality displacement. The effect size estimate for airborne particles more than doubles when we consider longer-term effects, which has important implications for risk assessment.

The relation between temperature, ozone, and mortality in nine French cities during the heat wave of 2003.

Background During August 2003, record high temperatures were observed across Europe, and France was the country most affected. During this period, elevated ozone concentrations were measured all over the country. Questions were raised concerning the contribution of O3 to the health impact of the summer 2003 heat wave. Methods We used a time-series design to analyze short-term effects of temperature and O3 pollution on mortality. Counts of deaths were regressed on temperatures and O3 levels, controlling for possible confounders: long-term trends, season, influenza outbreaks, day of the week, and bank holiday effects. For comparison with previous results of the nine cities, we calculated pooled excess risk using a random effect approach and an empirical Bayes approach. Findings For the nine cities, the excess risk of death is significant (1.01%; 95% confidence interval, 0.58–1.44) for an increase of 10 μg/m3 in O3 level. For the 3–17 August 2003 period, the excess risk of deaths linked to O3 and temperatures together ranged from 10.6% in Le Havre to 174.7% in Paris. When we compared the relative contributions of O3 and temperature to this joint excess risk, the contribution of O3 varied according to the city, ranging from 2.5% in Bordeaux to 85.3% in Toulouse. Interpretation We observed heterogeneity among the nine cities not only for the joint effect of O3 and temperatures, but also for the relative contribution of each factor. These results confirmed that in urban areas O3 levels have a non-negligible impact in terms of public health.

The association of daily sulfur dioxide air pollution levels with hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases in Europe (The Aphea-II study)

The objective of this study is to assess the short-term effect of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) air pollution levels on hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases. Daily mean hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases, ischemic heart diseases (IHDs), and stroke in seven European areas (the cities of Birmingham, London, Milan, Paris, Rome, and Stockholm, and in The Netherlands) participating in the multicenter European study of air pollution (Aphea-II), were measured. Time series analysis of daily hospital admission counts was performed using poison autoregressive models. A summary regression coefficient for all cities was provided. Daily numbers of all cardiovascular admissions except stroke, and particularly IHDs, rose significantly with an increase of daily SO(2)levels of the same day and day before. After adjusting for PM(10)(i.e. particles with size <10 microm), the association of SO(2)with IHD admissions remained significant (i.e. an increase of 0.7%; 95% confidence interval=0.1-1.3, per each 10 microg/m(3)increase of SO(2)) among subjects younger than 65 years, but not among subjects older than 65. In the older group the increase was only significant for particles (1.3%; CI 0.7-1.8, per each increase in 10 microg/m(3)of PM(10)). This study provides new evidence for the effects of urban air pollution on cardiac diseases in Europe, and suggests that SO(2)pollution may play an independent role in triggering ischemic cardiac events. From a Public Health perspective these results suggest that reduction in SO(2)levels in European cities could imply a reduction of admissions for IHDs.

The Effect of the 1995 Heat Wave in Chicago on All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality

OBJECTIVES We sought to reexamine the effects of the 1995 Chicago heat wave on all-cause and cause-specific mortality, including mortality displacement, using advanced time-series analysis methods. METHODS We used Poisson regression with penalized regression splines to model excess mortality and mortality displacement over a 50-day period centered on the day in which the heat wave temperature peaked, adjusting for meteorological and other variables. We controlled for temporal trends by using daily mortality data during 1993-1997. We estimated relative risks (RRs) with reference to the first day of the 50-day period. RESULTS We estimated that there were 692 excess deaths from June 21, 1995, to August 10, 1995; 26% of these deaths were owing to mortality displacement. RR for all-cause mortality on the day with peak mortality was 1.74 (95% confidence interval=1.67, 1.81). Risk of heat-related death was significantly higher among Blacks, and mortality displacement was substantially lower. CONCLUSIONS The 1995 Chicago heat wave substantially effected all-cause and cause-specific mortality, but mortality displacement was limited. Mortality risks and displacement affected Blacks disproportionally. Appropriately targeted interventions may have a tangible effect on life expectancy.

Associations between Fine and Coarse Particles and Mortality in Mediterranean Cities: Results from the MED-PARTICLES Project

Background: Few studies have investigated the independent health effects of different size fractions of particulate matter (PM) in multiple locations, especially in Europe. Objectives: We estimated the short-term effects of PM with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm (PM10), ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), and between 2.5 and 10 μm (PM2.5–10) on all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in 10 European Mediterranean metropolitan areas within the MED-PARTICLES project. Methods: We analyzed data from each city using Poisson regression models, and combined city-specific estimates to derive overall effect estimates. We evaluated the sensitivity of our estimates to co-pollutant exposures and city-specific model choice, and investigated effect modification by age, sex, and season. We applied distributed lag and threshold models to investigate temporal patterns of associations. Results: A 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with a 0.55% (95% CI: 0.27, 0.84%) increase in all-cause mortality (0–1 day cumulative lag), and a 1.91% increase (95% CI: 0.71, 3.12%) in respiratory mortality (0–5 day lag). In general, associations were stronger for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality than all-cause mortality, during warm versus cold months, and among those ≥ 75 versus < 75 years of age. Associations with PM2.5–10 were positive but not statistically significant in most analyses, whereas associations with PM10 seemed to be driven by PM2.5. Conclusions: We found evidence of adverse effects of PM2.5 on mortality outcomes in the European Mediterranean region. Associations with PM2.5–10 were positive but smaller in magnitude. Associations were stronger for respiratory mortality when cumulative exposures were lagged over 0–5 days, and were modified by season and age.

Air pollution interventions and their impact on public health

IntroductionNumerous epidemiological studies have found a link between air pollution and health. We are reviewing a collection of published intervention studies with particular focus on studies assessing both improvements in air quality and associated health effects.MethodsInterventions, defined as events aimed at reducing air pollution or where reductions occurred as a side effect, e.g. strikes, German reunification, from the 1960s onwards were considered for inclusion. This review is not a complete record of all existing air pollution interventions. In total, 28 studies published in English were selected based on a systematic search of internet databases.ResultsOverall air pollution interventions have succeeded at improving air quality. Consistently published evidence suggests that most of these interventions have been associated with health benefits, mainly by the way of reduced cardiovascular and/or respiratory mortality and/or morbidity. The decrease in mortality from the majority of the reviewed interventions has been estimated to exceed the expected predicted figures based on the estimates from time-series studies.ConclusionThere is consistent evidence that decreased air pollution levels following an intervention resulted in health benefits for the assessed population.