Christopher J. Fogwill

Chronology of the last glaciation in central Strait of Magellan and Bahia Inutil, southernmost South America

ABSTRACT. Glacier fluctuations in the Strait of Magellan tell of the climatic changes that affected southern latitudes at c. 53–55°S during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Late‐glacial/Holocene transition. Here we present a revised chronology based on cosmogenic isotope analysis, 14C assays, amino acid racemisation and tephrochronology. We unpick the effect of bedrock‐derived lignite which has affected many 14C dates in the past and synthesise new and revised dates that constrain five glacier advances (A to E). Advance A is prior to the LGM. LGM is represented by Advance B that reached and largely formed the arcuate peninsula Juan Mazia. Carbon‐14and 10Be dating show it occurred after 31 250 cal yrs BP and culminated at 25 200–23 100 cal yrs BP and was then followed by the slightly less extensive advance C sometime before 22 400–20 300 cal yrs BP. This pattern of an early maximum is found elsewhere in South America and more widely. Stage D, considerably less extensive, culminated sometime before 17 700–17 600 cal yrs BP and was followed by rapid and widespread glacier retreat. Advance E, which dammed a lake, spanned 15 500–11770 cal yrs BP. This latter advance overlaps the Bølling‐Allerød interstadials and the glacier retreat occurs during the peak of the Younger Dryas stadial in the northern hemisphere. However, the stage E advance coincides with the Antarctic Cold Reversal (c. 14800–12700 cal yrs BP) and may indicate that some millennial‐scale climatic fluctuations in the Late‐glacial period are out of phase between the northern and southern hemispheres.

Late-glacial glacier events in southernmost South America : A blend of 'northern' and 'southern' hemispheric climatic signals?

ABSTRACT. This paper examines new geomorphological, chronological and modelling data on glacier fluctuations in southernmost South America in latitudes 46–55°S during the last glacial–interglacial transition. Establishing leads and lags between the northern and southern hemispheres and between southern mid‐latitudes and Antarctica is key to an appreciation of the mechanisms and resilience of global climate. This is particularly important in the southern hemisphere where there is a paucity of empirical data. The overall structure of the last glacial cycle in Patagonia has a northern hemisphere signal. Glaciers reached or approached their Last Glacial Maxima on two or more occasions at 25–23 ka (calendar) and there was a third less extensive advance at 17.5 ka. Deglaciation occurred in two steps at 17.5 ka and at 11.4 ka. This structure is the same as that recognized in the northern hemisphere and taking place in spite of glacier advances occurring at a time of high southern hemisphere summer insolation and deglaciation at a time of decreasing summer insolation. The implication is that at orbital time scales the‘northern’ signal dominates any southern hemisphere signal. During deglaciation, at a millennial scale, the glacier fluctuations mirror an antiphase southern’ climatic signal as revealed in Antarctic ice cores. There is a glacier advance coincident with the Antarctic Cold Reversal at 15.3–12.2 ka. Furthermore, deglaciation begins in the middle of the Younger Dryas. The implication is that, during the last glacial–interglacial transition, southernmost South America was under the influence of sea surface temperatures, sea ice and southern westerlies responding to conditions in the southern’ Antarctic domain. Such asynchrony may reflect a situation whereby, during deglaciation, the world is more sensitized to fluctuations in the oceanic thermohaline circulation, perhaps related to the bipolar seesaw, than at orbital timescales.

Deglacial history of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Weddell Sea embayment: Constraints on past ice volume change

The retreat history of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) since the Last Glacial Maximum is important for understanding the process of rapid deglaciation, constraining models that seek to predict the future trajectory of the ice sheet, and for estimating rates of sea-level change. Here we report new glacial geologic data from the southwestern Weddell Sea embayment that demonstrate that this part of the WAIS was thinner than previously suggested, and that there was progressive thinning of the ice sheet by 230–480 m since ca. 15 ka. We use geomorphological data and a numerical ice sheet model to reconstruct the ice sheet in the Weddell Sea at the Last Glacial Maximum. The volume of this ice would have added between 1.4 and 2.0 m to postglacial sea-level rise and would not have been sufficient to contribute significantly to meltwater pulse 1A, a rapid rise in sea level ∼14,200 yr ago.

The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise

Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values by the end of this century. If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8–10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (ref. 2). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6–3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse 1A from reduced Southern Ocean overturning

During the last glacial termination, the upwelling strength of the southern polar limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation varied, changing the ventilation and stratification of the high-latitude Southern Ocean. During the same period, at least two phases of abrupt global sea-level rise--meltwater pulses--took place. Although the timing and magnitude of these events have become better constrained, a causal link between ocean stratification, the meltwater pulses and accelerated ice loss from Antarctica has not been proven. Here we simulate Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the last 25 kyr using a data-constrained ice-sheet model forced by changes in Southern Ocean temperature from an Earth system model. Results reveal several episodes of accelerated ice-sheet recession, the largest being coincident with meltwater pulse 1A. This resulted from reduced Southern Ocean overturning following Heinrich Event 1, when warmer subsurface water thermally eroded grounded marine-based ice and instigated a positive feedback that further accelerated ice-sheet retreat.

DEGLACIATION OF THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE NORTH PATAGONIAN ICEFIELD AND ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL-SCALE LAKE DIVERSIONS

ABSTRACT. We examine the deglaciation of the eastern flank of the North Patagonian Icefield between latitudes 46° and 48°S in an attempt to link the chronology of the Last Glacial Maximum moraines and those close to present‐day outlet glaciers. The main features of the area are three shorelines created by ice‐dammed lakes that drained eastwards to the Atlantic. On the basis of 16 14C and exposure age dates we conclude that there was rapid glacier retreat at 15–16 ka (calendar ages) that saw glaciers retreat 90–125 km to within 20 km of their present margins. There followed a phase of glacier and lake stability at 13.6–12.8 ka. The final stage of deglaciation occurred at c. 12.8 ka, a time when the lake suddenly drained, discharging nearly 2000 km3 to the Pacific Ocean. This latter event marks the final separation of the North and South Patagonian Icefields. The timing of the onset of deglaciation and its stepped nature are similar to elsewhere in Patagonia and the northern hemisphere. However, the phase of lake stability, coinciding with the Antarctic Cold Reversal and ending during the Younger Dryas interval, mirrors climatic trends as recorded in Antarctic ice cores. The implication is that late‐glacial changes in southern Patagonia were under the influence of the Antarctic realm and out of phase with those of the northern hemisphere.

Geomorphological evidence and cosmogenic 10Be/26Al exposure ages for the Last Glacial Maximum and deglaciation of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet

This paper presents the first systematic attempt to map the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) configuration of the southern and central parts of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet, and to determine the timing of onshore ice-sheet retreat. Geomorphologic evidence shows that the LGM ice sheet expanded to form two ice domes in Palmer Land and merged with an expanded and thicker West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Weddell Sea. Ice from the Antarctic Peninsula merged with Alexander Island ice in George VI Sound. Cosmogenic 10 Be and 26 Al data from 29 erratics on nunataks yield model ages between 7.2 ka and older than 1 Ma. The data set contains a high proportion of erratics with evidence of nuclide inheritance. Once these ages have been excluded, the cosmogenic ages suggest that thinning of the west side of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet to near-present configuration was almost complete by the early Holocene. These data, combined with previously published 14 C data, exclude the possibility that the west side of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet has been thinning throughout the Holocene, as has been demonstrated for some other sectors of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. On the east side of the Antarctic Peninsula, ice-sheet thinning was under way prior to the early Holocene, but our data do not constrain the ice-sheet behavior more recently than 7.2 ka.

Dynamics of the last glacial maximum Antarctic ice-sheet and its response to ocean forcing

Retreat of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) Antarctic ice sheet is thought to have been initiated by changes in ocean heat and eustatic sea level propagated from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) as northern ice sheets melted under rising atmospheric temperatures. The extent to which spatial variability in ice dynamics may have modulated the resultant pattern and timing of decay of the Antarctic ice sheet has so far received little attention, however, despite the growing recognition that dynamic effects account for a sizeable proportion of mass-balance changes observed in modern ice sheets. Here we use a 5-km resolution whole-continent numerical ice-sheet model to assess whether differences in the mechanisms governing ice sheet flow could account for discrepancies between geochronological studies in different parts of the continent. We first simulate the geometry and flow characteristics of an equilibrium LGM ice sheet, using pan-Antarctic terrestrial and marine geological data for constraint, then perturb the system with sea level and ocean heat flux increases to investigate ice-sheet vulnerability. Our results identify that fast-flowing glaciers in the eastern Weddell Sea, the Amundsen Sea, central Ross Sea, and in the Amery Trough respond most rapidly to ocean forcings, in agreement with empirical data. Most significantly, we find that although ocean warming and sea-level rise bring about mainly localized glacier acceleration, concomitant drawdown of ice from neighboring areas leads to widespread thinning of entire glacier catchments—a discovery that has important ramifications for the dynamic changes presently being observed in modern ice sheets.

Cosmogenic nuclides 10Be and 26Al imply limited Antarctic Ice Sheet thickening and low erosion in the Shackleton Range for >1 m.y.

Concentrations of the cosmogenic nuclides 1 0 Be and 2 6 Al on bedrock surfaces in the Shackleton Range, Antarctica, indicate minimum exposure ages between 3.0 ′ 03 and 1.16 ′ 0.10 Ma. The isotope data indicate that the maximum long-term erosion rate is 0.10-0.35 m/m.y., and the ratios suggest no prolonged periods of burial by cold-based ice. The findings are important because of the location of the massif close to the junction of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and the landward extent of the Filchner Ice Shelf. These results point to three conclusions. First, the massif has not been overridden by the East Antarctic Ice Sheet during the late Quaternary. Rather, moraines 200-340 m above outlet glaciers are likely to represent the maximum thickening of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf during the Quaternary. Second, the high radionuclide concentrations on bedrock surfaces, one of which is striated, suggest that some glacial landforms were created in at least Pliocene or more likely Miocene time. Third, the exceptionally low erosion rates imply that the modern cold, arid climate has persisted for millions of years. These findings provide evidence of old, stable landscapes over a wider area of Antarctica than the Mc-Murdo Dry Valleys.

Rapid response of Helheim Glacier, southeast Greenland, to early Holocene climate warming

Recent changes in speed, thinning, and retreat rates of marine-terminating outlet glaciers have raised concerns about the future stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Establishing a longer term record of outlet glacier retreat rates is essential to provide a context for present-day observations and to improve and constrain numerical models of outlet glacier behavior. New exposure dating (10Be) of streamlined bedrock surfaces and glacial erratic boulders of Sermilik Fjord, southeast Greenland, the present-day drainage route of Helheim Glacier, documents rapid retreat (∼80 m a−1) of this major marine-terminating outlet glacier at the close of the last glaciation. The glacier front retreated ∼80 km to within 20 km of the present-day (2010) position of Helheim Glacier in <1 ka, ca. 10.8 ± 0.3 ka ago. Retreat followed rapidly rising air temperatures at the start of the Holocene, and at this temporal resolution there is no evidence that fjord geometry influenced glacier behavior. The significant response to climatic amelioration at the end of the last glacial suggests a high sensitivity to abrupt temperature increases, which has major implications for the future stability of present-day Greenlandic outlet glaciers in a warming climate.