Christopher L. Burdett

Interfacing models of wildlife habitat and human development to predict the future distribution of puma habitat.

The impact of human land uses on ecological systems typically differ relative to how extensively natural conditions are modified. Exurban development is intermediate-intensity residential development that often occurs in natural landscapes. Most species-habitat models do not evaluate the effects of such intermediate levels of human development and even fewer predict how future development patterns might affect the amount and configuration of habitat. We addressed these deficiencies by interfacing a habitat model with a spatially-explicit housing-density model to study the effect of human land uses on the habitat of pumas (Puma concolor) in southern California. We studied the response of pumas to natural and anthropogenic features within their home ranges and how mortality risk varied across a gradient of human development. We also used our housing-density model to estimate past and future housing densities and model the distribution of puma habitat in 1970, 2000, and 2030. The natural landscape for pumas ...

Defining Space Use and Movements of Canada Lynx with Global Positioning System Telemetry

Abstract Space use and movements of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) are difficult to study with very-high-frequency radiocollars. We deployed global positioning system (GPS) collars on 11 lynx in Minnesota to study their seasonal space-use patterns. We estimated home ranges with minimum-convex-polygon and fixed-kernel methods and estimated core areas with area/probability curves. Fixed-kernel home ranges of males (range = 29–522 km2) were significantly larger than those of females (range = 5–95 km2) annually and during the denning season. Some male lynx increased movements during March, the month most influenced by breeding activity. Lynx core areas were predicted by the 60% fixed-kernel isopleth in most seasons. The mean core-area size of males (range = 6–190 km2) was significantly larger than that of females (range = 1–19 km2) annually and during denning. Most female lynx were reproductive animals with reduced movements, whereas males often ranged widely between Minnesota and Ontario. Sensitivity analyses examining the effect of location frequency on home-range size suggest that the home-range sizes of breeding females are less sensitive to sample size than those of males. Longer periods between locations decreased home-range and core-area overlap relative to the home range estimated from daily locations. GPS collars improve our understanding of space use and movements by lynx by increasing the spatial extent and temporal frequency of monitoring and allowing home ranges to be estimated over short periods that are relevant to life-history characteristics.

Modeling and Mapping the Probability of Occurrence of Invasive Wild Pigs across the Contiguous United States

Wild pigs (Sus scrofa), also known as wild swine, feral pigs, or feral hogs, are one of the most widespread and successful invasive species around the world. Wild pigs have been linked to extensive and costly agricultural damage and present a serious threat to plant and animal communities due to their rooting behavior and omnivorous diet. We modeled the current distribution of wild pigs in the United States to better understand the physiological and ecological factors that may determine their invasive potential and to guide future study and eradication efforts. Using national-scale wild pig occurrence data reported between 1982 and 2012 by wildlife management professionals, we estimated the probability of wild pig occurrence across the United States using a logistic discrimination function and environmental covariates hypothesized to influence the distribution of the species. Our results suggest the distribution of wild pigs in the U.S. was most strongly limited by cold temperatures and availability of water, and that they were most likely to occur where potential home ranges had higher habitat heterogeneity, providing access to multiple key resources including water, forage, and cover. High probability of occurrence was also associated with frequent high temperatures, up to a high threshold. However, this pattern is driven by pigs’ historic distribution in warm climates of the southern U.S. Further study of pigs’ ability to persist in cold northern climates is needed to better understand whether low temperatures actually limit their distribution. Our model highlights areas at risk of invasion as those with habitat conditions similar to those found in pigs’ current range that are also near current populations. This study provides a macro-scale approach to generalist species distribution modeling that is applicable to other generalist and invasive species.

Movement and Habitat Use of Canada Lynx During Denning in Minnesota

Abstract Establishing whether conditions are suitable for reproduction would help determine if immigration is necessary for Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) to persist at the southern edge of the species range. We located den sites and monitored reproduction of radiocollared lynx in Minnesota from 2004 to 2006. Movement rates of denning females measured with Global Positioning System collars were similar to movement rates of lynx elsewhere. Female lynx with kittens used different habitat types in predenning, denning, and postdenning periods. Landscape composition at the scale of the foraging radius around a den site contained more lowland conifer, upland conifer, and regenerating forest than did home ranges or the area used by radiocollared lynx in Minnesota, USA. We used the spatial distribution of cover-type composition around known den sites to predict and map potential denning habitat in northeastern Minnesota. Techniques for identifying the spatial distribution of suitable denning habitat provide a biological basis for management actions that could enhance recovery of Canada lynx populations in the southern part of the species range.

Quantification of habitat fragmentation reveals extinction risk in terrestrial mammals

Significance Despite the critical threat of habitat fragmentation, global patterns of fragmentation and its relationship to extinction risk have not been quantified for any major taxon. We developed high-resolution models that provide a global assessment of the degree of habitat fragmentation impacting the world’s terrestrial mammals. Results demonstrate that mammals with more fragmentation are at greater risk of extinction, even after accounting for the effects of key macroecological predictors, such as body size and geographic range size. Species with higher fragmentation had smaller ranges and a lower proportion of high-suitability habitat within their range, and most high-suitability habitat occurred outside of protected areas, further elevating extinction risk. Quantification of habitat fragmentation will help guide strategic priorities for global mammal conservation. Although habitat fragmentation is often assumed to be a primary driver of extinction, global patterns of fragmentation and its relationship to extinction risk have not been consistently quantified for any major animal taxon. We developed high-resolution habitat fragmentation models and used phylogenetic comparative methods to quantify the effects of habitat fragmentation on the world’s terrestrial mammals, including 4,018 species across 26 taxonomic Orders. Results demonstrate that species with more fragmentation are at greater risk of extinction, even after accounting for the effects of key macroecological predictors, such as body size and geographic range size. Species with higher fragmentation had smaller ranges and a lower proportion of high-suitability habitat within their range, and most high-suitability habitat occurred outside of protected areas, further elevating extinction risk. Our models provide a quantitative evaluation of extinction risk assessments for species, allow for identification of emerging threats in species not classified as threatened, and provide maps of global hotspots of fragmentation for the world’s terrestrial mammals. Quantification of habitat fragmentation will help guide threat assessment and strategic priorities for global mammal conservation.

Biotic and abiotic factors predicting the global distribution and population density of an invasive large mammal

Biotic and abiotic factors are increasingly acknowledged to synergistically shape broad-scale species distributions. However, the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors in predicting species distributions is unclear. In particular, biotic factors, such as predation and vegetation, including those resulting from anthropogenic land-use change, are underrepresented in species distribution modeling, but could improve model predictions. Using generalized linear models and model selection techniques, we used 129 estimates of population density of wild pigs (Sus scrofa) from 5 continents to evaluate the relative importance, magnitude, and direction of biotic and abiotic factors in predicting population density of an invasive large mammal with a global distribution. Incorporating diverse biotic factors, including agriculture, vegetation cover, and large carnivore richness, into species distribution modeling substantially improved model fit and predictions. Abiotic factors, including precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, were also important predictors. The predictive map of population density revealed wide-ranging potential for an invasive large mammal to expand its distribution globally. This information can be used to proactively create conservation/management plans to control future invasions. Our study demonstrates that the ongoing paradigm shift, which recognizes that both biotic and abiotic factors shape species distributions across broad scales, can be advanced by incorporating diverse biotic factors.

Assessing the umbrella value of a range-wide conservation network for Jaguars (Panthera onca)

Umbrella species are employed as conservation short-cuts for the design of reserves or reserve networks. However, empirical data on the effectiveness of umbrellas is equivocal, which has prevented more widespread application of this conservation strategy. We perform a novel, large-scale evaluation of umbrella species by assessing the potential umbrella value of a jaguar (Panthera onca) conservation network (consisting of viable populations and corridors) that extends from Mexico to Argentina. Using species richness, habitat quality, and fragmentation indices of ~1500 co-occurring mammal species, we show that jaguar populations and corridors overlap a substantial amount and percentage of high-quality habitat for co-occurring mammals and that the jaguar network performs better than random networks in protecting high-quality, interior habitat. Significantly, the effectiveness of the jaguar network as an umbrella would not have been noticeable had we focused on species richness as our sole metric of umbrella utility. Substantial inter-order variability existed, indicating the need for complementary conservation strategies for certain groups of mammals. We offer several reasons for the positive result we document, including the large spatial scale of our analysis and our focus on multiple metrics of umbrella effectiveness. Taken together, our results demonstrate that a regional, single-species conservation strategy can serve as an effective umbrella for the larger community and should help conserve viable populations and connectivity for a suite of co-occurring mammals. Current and future range-wide planning exercises for other large predators may therefore have important umbrella benefits.

HEMATOLOGY, SERUM CHEMISTRY, AND BODY MASS OF FREE-RANGING AND CAPTIVE CANADA LYNX IN MINNESOTA

Baseline blood chemistry data could be particularly valuable if reference values from free-ranging populations of rare or endangered species are not available. The Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in the conterminous United States, even though the species is managed as a furbearer in Alaska and in most provinces of Canada. Body mass, blood chemistry, and hematologic data for free-ranging lynx were collected from 2003 to 2007 and for captive lynx from 1984 to 2007. Up to 2 yr of age, captive lynx were consistently heavier than free-ranging lynx. Body mass of adult free-ranging lynx was similar to body mass of captive adult lynx. Some differences in blood chemistry between free-ranging and captive lynx were statistically significant, but most measured values were within reference ranges for domestic cats. Free-ranging lynx had higher concentrations of aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, and blood urea nitrogen than did captive lynx, and these were outside the reference value ranges for domestic cats. Alkaline phosphatase and phosphorus were higher in juveniles (<12 mo when captured) as compared to adults. Free-ranging lynx maintained body mass between serial captures. Hematologic values, blood chemistry values, and body mass of free-ranging Canada lynx provide support for the hypothesis that Canada lynx in Minnesota, at the southern edge of their range, are in normal physical condition.

Simulating the Distribution of Individual Livestock Farms and Their Populations in the United States: An Example Using Domestic Swine (Sus scrofa domesticus) Farms.

Livestock distribution in the United States (U.S.) can only be mapped at a county-level or worse resolution. We developed a spatial microsimulation model called the Farm Location and Agricultural Production Simulator (FLAPS) that simulated the distribution and populations of individual livestock farms throughout the conterminous U.S. Using domestic pigs (Sus scrofa domesticus) as an example species, we customized iterative proportional-fitting algorithms for the hierarchical structure of the U.S. Census of Agriculture and imputed unpublished state- or county-level livestock population totals that were redacted to ensure confidentiality. We used a weighted sampling design to collect data on the presence and absence of farms and used them to develop a national-scale distribution model that predicted the distribution of individual farms at a 100 m resolution. We implemented microsimulation algorithms that simulated the populations and locations of individual farms using output from our imputed Census of Agriculture dataset and distribution model. Approximately 19% of county-level pig population totals were unpublished in the 2012 Census of Agriculture and needed to be imputed. Using aerial photography, we confirmed the presence or absence of livestock farms at 10,238 locations and found livestock farms were correlated with open areas, cropland, and roads, and also areas with cooler temperatures and gentler topography. The distribution of swine farms was highly variable, but cross-validation of our distribution model produced an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve value of 0.78, which indicated good predictive performance. Verification analyses showed FLAPS accurately imputed and simulated Census of Agriculture data based on absolute percent difference values of < 0.01% at the state-to-national scale, 3.26% for the county-to-state scale, and 0.03% for the individual farm-to-county scale. Our output data have many applications for risk management of agricultural systems including epidemiological studies, food safety, biosecurity issues, emergency-response planning, and conflicts between livestock and other natural resources.

A globally-distributed alien invasive species poses risks to United States imperiled species

In the midst of Earth’s sixth mass extinction event, non-native species are a driving factor in many imperiled species’ declines. One of the most widespread and destructive alien invasive species in the world, wild pigs (Sus scrofa) threaten native species through predation, habitat destruction, competition, and disease transmission. We show that wild pigs co-occur with up to 87.2% of imperiled species in the contiguous U.S. identified as susceptible to their direct impacts, and we project increases in both the number of species at risk and the geographic extent of risks by 2025. Wild pigs may therefore present a severe threat to U.S. imperiled species, with serious implications for management of at-risk species throughout wild pigs’ global distribution. We offer guidance for efficient allocation of research effort and conservation resources across species and regions using a simple approach that can be applied to wild pigs and other alien invasive species globally.