Christopher R. McIntosh

Supply Response to Countercyclical Payments and Base Acre Updating under Uncertainty: An Experimental Study

We design an experiment to simulate how people make agricultural production decisions under three policy scenarios, each incorporating direct payments (DPs): (a) price uncertainty without countercyclical payments (CCPs); (b) price uncertainty with CCPs; and (c) price uncertainty, CCPs, and uncertainty regarding base acreage updating. Results are the CCP program and perceived possibility of future base updating created incentives for subjects to invest more in program (base) crops, despite payments being decoupled from current production decisions. Those choosing to reduce revenue risk by increasing plantings of base crops may face reduced incomes, suggesting the efficiency of crop markets may be diminished.

Invasive Species and Delaying the Inevitable: Results from a Pilot Valuation Experiment

Herein we explore the economic value of delaying inevitable environmental damage due to aquatic invasive species, which is a problem especially relevant to tropic and subtropical regions. We developed an analytical framework and tested it using a stated preference survey. The results suggest that delaying the impacts can be valuable. Other tests reveal characteristics of the willingness-to-pay estimates that are consistent with economic theory.

An empirical study of the influences of recreational park visitation: the case of US National Park Service sites

The authors examine which variables influence recreational visitation at 353 US National Park Service (NPS) sites. The paper provides evidence that variables other than lagged visitation, including various site designators, various regional dummies, lagged RDPI (inferior), alternative sites (complementary effect), the regional 9/11 terrorist attacks variable and the regional terrorism threat level variable (increase in threat level decreases visitation) are statistically and economically significant. Generally, the statistical significance and magnitude of the variables influence increases as site visitation increases. These results should be of interest to planners and policy makers in general, and specifically to NPS planners in charge of a US

Anglers' responses to bait certification regulations: the case of virus-free bait demand

2.2 billion budget.

Necessary and sufficient conditions in merger control: the use of HHI and threshold value

The threat of viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS) to the sport fish of the Great Lakes region has caused the state of Michigan to regulate some types of fishing bait that could spread the disease. Given large-scale fish kills from VHS are uncertain and regulation costly, it is important to consider the knowledge level of anglers and their estimated benefits from these regulations. About 75% of anglers self-reported being at least somewhat familiar with VHS and VHS regulations, and agreeing that VHS is a serious threat to the health of Great Lakes’ fish populations. Demand for a popular baitfish susceptible to VHS, emerald shiners, was estimated using a contingent valuation method survey. The results suggest increased likelihood of purchase and mean willingness to pay point estimate premiums between 15% and 29% for certified bait. The inclusion of an educational piece on VHS and regulations in our survey did not lead to significant demand differences from those who did not receive the extra information. These results may help regulators efficiently allocate funding for the prevention of spreading VHS and allow bait shops to understand better the value of certified bait.

Modeling US Farmer Soybean Seed Choice with Path Dependencies: Inevitable Patented Seed Market Dominance?

This article considers two coarse measures applicable to antitrust policy: one of market concentration, the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) and one of market dominance, threshold value. Calculations of threshold value are compared to HHI values to determine when thresholds might be of specific use in merger cases. Many scenarios which satisfy the threshold conditions (indicating a dominant firm exists) are consistent with high HHI numbers such that current US Department of Justice and European Commission guidelines (based on HHIs) for merger concerns will have been met. It is suggested as a rule of thumb that HHIs be used as necessary conditions and threshold value be considered sufficient conditions for further case review.

Forecasting Recreational Visitation at US National Parks

Abstract The growth in the US market share of soybeans including Monsanto’s patented “Roundup Ready” (RR1 and RR2) traits has been extraordinary. This growth is likely due to a number of factors that affect the number of competitor firms and individual farmers’ seed choices. This study outlines how two path dependencies, transition and expected fine, may be contributing. Herein, these path dependencies are explored to consider whether they are legitimate, how they might affect a farmer’s planting decisions and their possible effects on soybean seed markets. Our simulation models consider the number of periods for patented seed market share to converge from zero to 85%. Results indicate that the path dependencies create pockets of significant convergence influence over various alternative price ranges, i.e. the dependencies can accelerate or create a convergence that would not have existed without them. When a relatively large expected fine path or a strong version of the transition dependency is considered, the pocket includes reasonable price premiums for conventional and organic seed.

Invasive species and delaying the inevitable: Valuation evidence from a national survey

This study evaluates forecasting accuracy among several competing methodologies, including time series and econometric methods, on visitation to 255 US National Park Service (NPS) sites. The performance of these models is contrasted with the model currently in use by the NPS. One-yearahead, 2-year-ahead, and combined (1- and 2-year-ahead) forecasting performance at the individual park level is examined utilizing several measures of forecasting accuracy, including root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Results indicate incorporating economic variables can significantly improve forecasts, particularly for large and small parks. For medium size parks the naive forecast errors were typically lowest. Furthermore, the naive model performed well, often producing the best forecast, followed by the econometric model. Regionally, the naive and econometric models preform best, with the Pacificwest region being the exception. Utilizing the most accurate model for each park leads to a 24% improvement over current forecasts (1-year horizon) and suggests that a mixed model approach is optimal.