Christy M. Foran

A weight of evidence approach for hazard screening of engineered nanomaterials

Abstract Hazard identification is an important step in assessing nanomaterial risk and is required under multiple regulatory frameworks in the US, Europe and worldwide. Given the emerging nature of the field and complexity of nanomaterials, multiple studies on even basic material properties often result in varying data pointing in different directions when data interpretation is attempted. Weight of evidence (WOE) evaluation has been recommended for nanomaterial risk assessment, but the majority of WOE frameworks are qualitative in nature and do not satisfy the growing needs for objectivity and transparency that are necessary for regulatory decision making. This paper implements a quantitative WOE framework that utilizes multi-criteria decision analysis methodology for integrating individual studies on nanomaterial hazard resulting from physico-chemical and toxicological properties of nanomaterials. For the first time, a WOE approach explicitly integrates expert evaluation of data quality of available information. Application of the framework is illustrated for titanium dioxide nanoparticles (nano-TiO2), but the approach is designed to compare the relative hazard of several nanomaterials as well as emerging stressors in general.

Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information.

Relating Mandates in the United States for Managing the Ocean to Ecosystem Goods and Services Demonstrates Broad but Varied Coverage

There are numerous ecosystem goods and services (EGS) provided by the ocean. There are also multiple mandates to address this suite of EGS. Which facets of the ocean EGS does this portfolio of mandates collectively address? How are these mandates interrelated? Are there gaps in their coverage of EGS? Are there areas of reinforcement? To elucidate this set of issues, we characterize the portfolio of mandates that a leading U.S. governmental ocean agency, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the subset of those that one of its Line Offices, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA-Fisheries), is responsible for implementing. We link these mandates to a suite of EGS, evaluating the relative degree that each mandate addresses each EGS. The weighted overlap across mandates with respect to EGS was also estimated. Of the nearly 100 NOAA mandates, and the subset of 50 NOAA-Fisheries mandates, there was broad coverage of ocean EGS; every EGS has at a minimum of 9 NOAA mandates that addressed that topic. Food production, habitat provision, genetic resources, recreation, tourism, historical and heritage value, and knowledge and science value were the EGS that had the highest amount of coverage at 30, 42, 50, 39, 38, 34, and 60 NOAA mandates, respectively. There was some reinforcement across mandates, particularly for the top EGS, suggesting that the multiple facets of these EGS are being reasonably well addressed. Seventy percent of mandates informed the same EGS via implementation of the top 10 mandates considered to be the most important for NOAA. The large number of mandates and the overlap in the EGS they address suggest that some form of coordination is warranted, particularly via adoption of an ecosystem-based approach to management.

Susceptibility assessment of urban tree species in Cambridge, MA, from future climatic extremes

The City of Cambridge, Massachusetts, recognizes the value of the city’s urban forest in terms of air quality, lower wind speeds, esthetics, energy conservation, reduced noise pollution, habitat value, decreased runoff, and bolstering of local businesses and property values. The density, composition, and location of street and city park trees comprising the urban forest will be influenced by future climate-driven extreme weather events. In this study, we have developed an approach for assessing impacts of multiple extreme weather scenarios likely to become more frequent under climate change and subsequently influence the composition of street and park trees. This potential for loss of trees as a result of one (or more) of these climate-related extreme weather events is considered to be one indicator of the susceptibility of Cambridge’s urban forest to climate-related weather events. The scenarios considered were a hurricane/tropical storm similar to tropical storm Sandy in 2012, heat stress, snow or ice loading (e.g., loss of tree limbs), Asian longhorn beetle or emerald ash borer infestations, and the cumulative effect from the addition of all these scenarios. The literature was used to assess the sensitivity of tree species to each threat and determine the anticipated loss of individuals from each species. The results are a reasonable indication of the more tolerant tree species in Cambridge and their locations. This assessment of susceptibility can inform proactive management of the urban forest.

Assessing cumulative effects of multiple activities in New England watersheds

A cumulative effect analysis (CEA) is a tool that can be utilized for the review of multiple anthropogenic projects or activities for the purposes of planning, regulation, conservation, or the general evaluation of environmental health. Such an assessment is problematic because spatially consistent and temporally repeated data informing the condition of a location are often not available. When such data can be identified, the potential response of that resource to additional impacts may be unpredictable. Despite these limitations, in many cases, it may be critical to identify those locations for further scrutiny which may be vulnerable to collective impacts from development or other environmental challenges. Here, we present an approach which considers the vulnerability of aquatic resources in relation to the anticipated effects of development-related activities that could be used to identify locations where the potential for cumulative effects is the greatest. This application considers CEA in the context of identifying where development-related activities of minimal impact may be viewed as relatively more substantial when viewed cumulatively. We identify HUC 8-level watersheds where the current resource condition and anticipated development-related activities may have greater potential to result in an impact on watershed condition (i.e., water quality, water quantity, and habitat value). The vulnerability of the watershed was estimated from the number, type, and location of a specific suite of reported activities. The existing condition of the watershed was measured as a function of existing assessments of resource conditions. The relationship between the vulnerability and the existing watershed condition was used to project future conditions and to identify watersheds that warrant further scrutiny. This is a unique approach to CEA which allows for transparent, repeatable identification of watersheds which may be adversely impacted by further activities or projects.

Undue concentration of research and education: multi-criteria decision approach to assess jurisdiction eligibility for NSF funding

Research and education tend to concentrate in specific geographical areas, while many jurisdictions receive limited federal research funding. This has resulted in reduced opportunity for students as well as limited ability of science to influence solving problems at the jurisdiction level. The National Science Foundation’s Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) was intended to address the “undue concentration of research and education” by providing direct funding to improve research infrastructure, hire researchers, develop outreach, and to enhance local research capacity. Despite many successful outcomes attributed to EPSCoR, the aim and the execution of the program have generated controversy. Decision analytic tools can provide a systematic approach to EPSCoR prioritization that improves transparency and addresses the program’s intent. The wording of NSF’s mission and EPSCoR legislation suggest the intent of maximizing NSF’s benefit to the nation by directly supporting scientific research product across all jurisdictions and by supporting development of competitive scientific capabilities within particular jurisdictions. These components may be quantified via data-driven metrics producing indicators of ultimate benefit. Using illustrative scenarios within a multi-criteria decision model, we explore how such decision models may generate insights and how their guidance compares with current eligibility determinations.

Ecological and Health Risks at Low Doses

The concept of “dose makes the poison” has been attributed to Paracelsus who lived in the 1500s. The goal of much of modern toxicology and pharmacology has since been to define the precise biological factors that dictate the relationship between dose and response following exposure to chemicals. One of the major challenges in risk assessment more recently appreciated is the difficulty in predicting with statistical certainty adverse effects at low doses when the probability of response in a population is low [1]. The nature of the risks at low doses may be qualitatively different from the nature of the risks at high doses. In other words, the risk at low doses is not just a smaller version of the risk at high doses, because the mechanism(s) responsible for the risk at low doses is often different.

Environmental engineering of navigation infrastructure: A survey of existing practices, challenges, and potential opportunities

Navigation infrastructure such as channels, jetties, river training structures, and lock-and-dam facilities are primary components of a safe and efficient water transportation system. Planning for such infrastructure has until recently involved efforts to minimize impacts on the environment through a standardized environmental assessment process. More recently, consistent with environmental sustainability concepts, planners have begun to consider how such projects can also be constructed with environmental enhancements. This study examined the existing institutional conditions within the US Army Corps of Engineers and cooperating federal agencies relative to incorporating environmental enhancements into navigation infrastructure projects. The study sought to (1) investigate institutional attitudes towards the environmental enhancement of navigation infrastructure (EENI) concept, (2) identify potential impediments to implementation and solutions to such impediments, (3) identify existing navigation projects designed with the express intent of enhancing environmental benefit in addition to the primary project purpose, (4) identify innovative ideas for increasing environmental benefits for navigation projects, (5) identify needs for additional technical information or research, and (6) identify laws, regulations, and policies that both support and hinder such design features. The principal investigation tool was an Internet-based survey with 53 questions. The survey captured a wide range of perspectives on the EENI concept including ideas, concerns, research needs, and relevant laws and policies. Study recommendations included further promotion of the concept of EENI to planners and designers, documentation of existing projects, initiation of pilot studies on some of the innovative ideas provided through the survey, and development of national goals and interagency agreements to facilitate implementation.

Weight of Evidence Frameworks in Evaluation of Adverse Outcome Pathways

Weight of Evidence (WoE) is an assessment mechanism used to systematically consider a collection of scientific data that addresses a specific hypothesis. WoE frameworks are used to help form a reasonable conclusion based on all available information, and are commonly utilized in risk assessment. They have recently been applied to toxicological assessments that seek to understand Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs), or the cascade of physiological events that link toxicant exposure to a downstream adverse health outcome. In case studies, WoE methods have proven useful in assessing AOPs and estimating pathway-based risk. However, WoE approaches vary considerably and have received criticism for their lack of transparency, reproducibility, and quantitative rigor. The subjective nature of qualitative WoE constructs has led to a push for a quantitative methodology that is consistent, objective, and robust. The purpose of this chapter is to provide a brief background on WoE methodology and its historical use in AOP discovery, as well as highlight progress in the development of a standardized quantitative WoE framework. An example of a newly proposed standardized quantitative WoE framework for AOPs is discussed, and gaps and suggested improvements are examined in order to identify next steps towards making quantitative WoE methods for AOPs more objective, transparent, and reproducible.

Watershed level effects of multiple ecosystem restoration projects

This assessment in the Narragansett Bay demonstrates a transparent, defensible method to characterize ecosystem restoration projects in a watershed over large spatial scales. The project team compiled multiple completed projects in the Narragansett Bay watershed including salt marsh restorations, fish passage, and dam removals. The approach included the following: identifying and locating restoration projects, utilizing existing data resources for spatial information, quantifying the gains in area and distance, and extrapolating the potential for collective watershed benefit in fish populations, productivity, water quality and carbon sequestration. In total, 177 projects were identified as being implemented between 1999 and 2015: fish passage restoration (46), marsh restoration (35), eel grass restoration (22), shellfish restoration (43), and other projects (31). The collective efforts to improve fish passage have resulted in more than 800 km of newly accessible river herring habitat in the Narragansett Bay watershed. DISCLAIMER: The contents of this report are not to be used for advertising, publication, or promotional purposes. Citation of trade names does not constitute an official endorsement or approval of the use of such commercial products. All product names and trademarks cited are the property of their respective owners. The findings of this report are not to be construed as an official Department of the Army position unless so designated by other authorized documents. DESTROY THIS REPORT WHEN NO LONGER NEEDED. DO NOT RETURN IT TO THE ORIGINATOR. ERDC/EL TR-18-10 iii