Chutima Suraratdecha

The estimated mortality impact of vaccinations forecast to be administered during 2011-2020 in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance

INTRODUCTION From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. METHODS The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011-2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese encephalitis, human papillomavirus, measles, and rubella. Impact was calculated as the difference in the number of deaths expected over the lifetime of vaccinated cohorts compared to the number of deaths expected in those cohorts with no vaccination. Numbers of persons vaccinated were based on 2011 GAVI Strategic Demand Forecasts with projected dates of vaccine introductions, vaccination coverage, and target population size in each country. RESULTS By 2020, nearly all GAVI-supported countries with endemic disease are projected to have introduced hepatitis B, Hib, pneumococcal, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever, N. meningitidis serogroup A, and Japanese encephalitis-containing vaccines; 55 (75 percent) countries are projected to have introduced human papillomavirus vaccine. Projected use of these vaccines during 2011-2020 is expected to avert an estimated 9.9 million deaths. Routine and supplementary immunization activities with measles vaccine are expected to avert an additional 13.4 million deaths. Estimated numbers of deaths averted per 1000 persons vaccinated were highest for first-dose measles (16.5), human papillomavirus (15.1), and hepatitis B (8.3) vaccination. Approximately 52 percent of the expected deaths averted will be in Africa, 27 percent in Southeast Asia, and 13 percent in the Eastern Mediterranean. CONCLUSION Vaccination of persons during 2011-2020 in 73 GAVI-eligible countries is expected to have substantial public health impact, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, two regions with high mortality. The actual impact of vaccination in these countries may be higher than our estimates because several widely used antigens were not included in the analysis. The quality of our estimates is limited by lack of data on underlying disease burden and vaccine effectiveness against fatal disease outcomes in developing countries. We plan to update the estimates annually to reflect updated demand forecasts, to refine model assumptions based on results of new information, and to extend the analysis to include morbidity and economic benefits.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of Japanese encephalitis vaccine in Cambodia

This study aimed to evaluate the cost and effectiveness of introducing a live, attenuated vaccine (SA 14-14-2) against Japanese encephalitis (JE) into the immunization program. The study demonstrated that SA 14-14-2 immunization is cost-effective in controlling JE in Cambodia compared to no vaccination. Averting one disability-adjusted life year, from a societal perspective, through the introduction of SA 14-14-2 through routine immunization, or a combination of routine immunization plus a campaign targeting children 1-5 or 1-10 years of age, costs US

Household Demand for Preventive HIV/AIDS Vaccines in Thailand: Do Husbands' and Wives' Preferences Differ?

22, US

Estimated economic impact of vaccinations in 73 low- and middle-income countries, 2001-2020.

34 and US

Cost and effectiveness analysis of immunization service delivery support in Andhra Pradesh, India

53, respectively. Sensitivity analyses confirmed that there was a high probability of SA 14-14-2 immunization being cost-effective under conditions of uncertainty.

Is universal coverage a solution for disparities in health care? Findings from three low-income provinces of Thailand.

OBJECTIVES The aims of this study were to estimate household demand in the general population of Thailand for a (hypothetical) preventive HIV vaccine; to determine whether spouses in the same household would purchase the same number of vaccines for household members and have the same demand function; to determine whether spouses would allocate vaccines to the same household members; and to estimate household and per capita average willingness to pay (WTP) for an HIV vaccine price. METHODS The data come from a national contingent valuation survey of 2524 residents (aged 18-20 years) of 1235 households in Thailand during the period 2000 to 2001. In a subsample of 561 households, both head of household and spouse completed independent (separate) interviews. Respondents were asked whether they would purchase an HIV vaccine for themselves and for other household members if one were available at a specified price. RESULTS For the full sample, average household WTP for the vaccine was substantial (US

The private demand for an AIDS vaccine in Thailand.

610 at 50% vaccine effectiveness, US

The pervasiveness of pharmaceutical expenditure inertia in the OECD countries

671 at 95% effectiveness); the average per capita WTP for household members was US

Measuring operational efficiency in a health care system: A case study from Thailand

220 at 50% effectiveness and US

Determinants of Thailand household healthcare expenditure: the relevance of permanent resources and other correlates

242 at 95% effectiveness. Although spouses reported that they would purchase the same total number of vaccines, and had essentially the same demand functions, at lower vaccine prices wives were significantly more likely than husbands to allocate vaccines to their daughters than to sons. CONCLUSIONS Because wives are more likely to allocate vaccines to daughters, vaccination programs aimed at women and girls might have different outcomes than programs directed at males or at all potential adults without regard to sex.