Ciarán Murray

Long-term temporal and spatial trends in eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea

Much of the Baltic Sea is currently classified as ‘affected by eutrophication’. The causes for this are twofold. First, current levels of nutrient inputs (nitrogen and phosphorus) from human activities exceed the natural processing capacity with an accumulation of nutrients in the Baltic Sea over the last 50–100 years. Secondly, the Baltic Sea is naturally susceptible to nutrient enrichment due to a combination of long retention times and stratification restricting ventilation of deep waters. Here, based on a unique data set collated from research activities and long‐term monitoring programs, we report on the temporal and spatial trends of eutrophication status for the open Baltic Sea over a 112‐year period using the HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT 3.0). Further, we analyse variation in the confidence of the eutrophication status assessment based on a systematic quantitative approach using coefficients of variation in the observations. The classifications in our assessment indicate that the first signs of eutrophication emerged in the mid‐1950s and the central parts of the Baltic Sea changed from being unaffected by eutrophication to being affected. We document improvements in eutrophication status that are direct consequences of long‐term efforts to reduce the inputs of nutrients. The reductions in both nitrogen and phosphorus loads have led to large‐scale alleviation of eutrophication and to a healthier Baltic Sea. Reduced confidence in our assessment is seen more recently due to reductions in the scope of monitoring programs. Our study sets a baseline for implementation of the ecosystem‐based management strategies and policies currently in place including the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directives and the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan.

Indicator-Based Assessment of Marine Biological Diversity–Lessons from 10 Case Studies across the European Seas

The Marine Strategy Framework Directive requires the environmental status of European marine waters to be assessed using biodiversity as one out of 11 descriptors, but the complexity of marine biodiversity and its large span across latitudinal and salinity gradients have been a challenge to the scientific community aiming to produce approaches for integrating information from a broad range of indicators. The Nested Environmental status Assessment Tool (NEAT), developed for the integrated assessment of the status of marine waters, was applied to ten marine ecosystems to test its applicability and compare biodiversity assessments across the four European regional seas. We evaluate the assessment results as well as the assessment designs of the ten cases, and how the assessment design, particularly the choices made regarding the area and indicator selection, affected the results. The results show that only 2 out of the 10 case study areas show more than 50 % probability of being in good status in respect of biodiversity. No strong pattern among the ecosystem components across the case study areas could be detected, but marine mammals, birds, and benthic vegetation indicators tended to indicate poor status while zooplankton indicators indicated good status when included into the assessment. The analysis shows that the assessment design, including the selection of indicators, their target values, geographical resolution and habitats to be assessed, has potentially a high impact on the result, and the assessment structure needs to be understood in order to make an informed assessment. Moreover, recommendations are provided for the best practice of using NEAT for marine status assessments.

Integrated assessment of marine biodiversity status using a prototype indicator-based assessment tool

Integrated assessment of the status of marine biodiversity is and has been problematic compared to, for example, assessments of eutrophication and contamination status, mostly as a consequence of the fact that monitoring of marine habitats, communities and species is expensive, often collected at an incorrect spatial scale and/or poorly integrated with existing marine environmental monitoring efforts. The objective of this Method Paper is to introduce and describe a simple tool for integrated assessment of biodiversity status based on the HELCOM Biodiversity Assessment Tool (BEAT), where interim biodiversity indicators are grouped by themes: broad-scale habitats, communities, and species as well as supporting non-biodiversity indicators. Further, we report the application of an initial indicator-based assessment of biodiversity status of Danish marine waters where we have tentatively classified the biodiversity status of Danish marine waters. The biodiversity status was in no areas classified as ‘unaffected by human activities’. In all the 22 assessment areas, the status was classified as either ‘moderately affected by human activities’ or ‘significantly affected by human activities. Spatial variations in the biodiversity status were in general related to the eutrophication status as well as fishing pressure.

Approaches for integrated assessment of ecological and eutrophication status of surface waters in Nordic Countries

We review approaches and tools currently used in Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) for integrated assessment of ‘ecological status’ sensu the EU Water Framework Directive as well as assessment of ‘eutrophication status’ in coastal and marine waters. Integration principles for combining indicators within biological quality elements (BQEs) and combining BQEs into a final-integrated assessment are discussed. Specific focus has been put on combining different types of information into indices, since several methods are currently employed. As a consequence of the variety of methods used, comparisons across both BQEs and water categories (river, lakes and coastal waters) can be difficult. Based on our analyses, we conclude that some principles and methods for integration can be critical and that a harmonised approach should be developed. Further, we conclude that the integration principles applied within BQEs are critical and in need of harmonisation if we want a better understanding of potential transition in ecological status between surface water types, e.g. when riverine water enters a downstream lake or coastal water body.

Development and testing of a prototype tool for integrated assessment of chemical status in marine environments

We report the development and application of a prototype tool for integrated assessment of chemical status in aquatic environments based on substance- and matrix-specific environmental assessment criteria (thresholds). The Chemical Status Assessment Tool (CHASE) integrates data on hazardous substances in water, sediments and biota as well as bio-effect indicators and is based on a substance- or bio-effect-specific calculation of a ‘contamination ratio’ being the ratio between an observed concentration and a threshold value. Values <1.0 indicate areas potentially ‘unaffected’, while values >1.0 indicate areas potentially ‘affected’. These ratios are combined within matrices, i.e. for water, sediment and biota and for biological effects. The overall assessment used a ‘one out, all out principle’ with regard to each matrix. The CHASE tool was tested in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea in 376 assessment units. In the former, the chemical status was >1.0 in practically all areas indicating that all areas assessed were potentially affected. The North Sea included areas classified as unaffected or affected. The CHASE tool can in combination with temporal trend assessments of individual substances be advantageous for use in remedial action plans and, in particular, for the science-based evaluation of the status and for determining which specific substances are responsible for a status as potentially affected.

Nitrogen Inputs from Agriculture: Towards Better Assessments of Eutrophication Status in Marine Waters

Nutrient enrichment of coastal marine waters caused by losses of nitrate (NO3−) from agriculture is an increasing global problem. In the European Union, the Nitrates Directive (ND) of 1991 was meant to be a cornerstone in reducing eutrophication effects in coastal waters downstream from intensively farmed catchments. Although reductions in losses of nitrate have been attained, very few Member States have yet been able to reduce eutrophication effects caused by inputs of NO3− from agriculture. We report trends in concentrations of NO3− and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) in Danish coastal and open marine waters during the period from 1996 to 2011 together with an assessment of eutrophication status based on multiple indicators (e.g. nutrient concentrations, Chl-a, submerged aquatic vegetation and benthic macroinvertebrates). Despite decreasing concentrations of both NO3−and Chl-a, Danish coastal waters are not yet to be classified as ‘unaffected by eutrophication’. In order to improve future pan-European evaluations of the effectiveness of the ND, we argue for the added value of including indicators and assessment principles from other European Directives, i.e. the Water Framework Directive and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive.