Cira Souza Pitombo

PROPOSAL OF A SEQUENTIAL METHOD FOR SPATIAL INTERPOLATION OF MODE CHOICE

The main objective of this study is to propose a sequential method for spatial interpolation of mode choice for household locations where choices are unobserved based on Decision Tree analysis and Geostatistics. Initially, Decision Tree analysis was applied in order to estimate the probability of mode choice in surveyed households, thus determining the numeric variable to be estimated by Ordinary Kriging. The data used is from the Origin-Destination Survey and Urban Transportation Evaluation Survey, carried out in 2007/2008 in the city of Sao Carlos (Sao Paulo/Brazil). The study area selected for geoestatistical modeling is a small region of the city with 110 sampling points. The mode choice was estimated for the study area revealing a tendency of increasing the probability of car usage from the center to the periphery of region. The proposed method can be an alternative to traditional approaches in both non-spatial modeling, especially for the case of lack of data from stated preference survey, as in spatial modeling, allowing estimation in various geographic coordinates.

Estimation of transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift: an aggregated data case study

Abstract Studies in transportation planning routinely use data in which location attributes are an important source of information. Thus, using spatial attributes in urban travel forecasting models seems reasonable. The main objective of this paper is to estimate transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift (FKED) through an aggregated data case study of Traffic Analysis Zones in São Paulo city, Brazil. The method consists of a sequential application of Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Kriging with External Drift (KED). The traditional Linear Regression (LR) model was adopted with the aim of validating the proposed method. The results show that PCA summarizes and combines 23 socioeconomic variables using 4 components. The first component is introduced in KED, as secondary information, to estimate transit trip production by public transport in geographic coordinates where there is no prior knowledge of the values. Cross-validation for the FKED model presented high values of the correlation coefficient between estimated and observed values. Moreover, low error values were observed. The accuracy of the LR model was similar to FKED. However, the proposed method is able to map the transit trip production in several geographical coordinates of non-sampled values.

Linking activity participation, socioeconomic characteristics, land use and travel patterns: a comparison of industry and commerce sector workers

The objective of this work is to analyze the travel behavior of industry and commerce sector workers in terms of three variables groups: activity participation, socioeconomic characteristics and land use. This work is based on the Origin-Destination survey carried out in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA) in 1997. Relationships were found between the concerned variables (Decision Tree), and the statistical significance of independent variables was assessed (Multiple Linear Regression). We analyzed the influence of the three variables groups on travel pattern choices: (A) socioeconomic variables (Household Income, Transit Pass Ownership and Car-ownership) affect the travel mode sequence; (B) activity participation (Study, Work) has an effect on the trip purpose sequence; and (C) land use variables (accumulated proportion of jobs by distance buffers starting from the home traffic zone centroid) influence the sequence of destinations chosen, especially in the case of industry sector workers. The different spatial distributions of economic activities (commercial and industrial) in the urban environment influence the travel of workers. This paper contributes essentially proposing the land use variable, through the intervening opportunities model as well as the presentation of a methodology, formed by application of exploratory and confirmatory techniques of multivariate data analysis.

A Conjoint Approach of Spatial Statistics and a Traditional Method for Travel Mode Choice Issues

Conventional analysis of transportation demand is usually carried out using socioeconomic, travel, and land use attributes. Despite the effectiveness on travel demand forecasting, it is important to recognize that alternative approaches have been developed in recent years. Traditional methods, besides considering different explanatory variables, are appropriate to make estimates exclusively on previously surveyed households. On the other hand, recent studies have addressed spatial statistical concerns in the field of travel demand forecasting. The aim of this paper is to spatially estimate motorized travel mode choice probabilities in a continuous map using an Origin-Destination Survey database, conducted in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area in Brazil in 2007. Values were estimated in both sampled and non-sampled coordinates. This paper proposes a conjoint approach that combines the traditional procedure of travel demand forecasting (multiple logistic regression) with a spatial statistical method (ordinary kriging). A comparison is made with the one-step spatial method—indicator kriging (IK). Conjoint studies of spatial statistics and traditional methods are thriving in transportation analysis, giving rise to a travel mode choice surface in a confirmatory way. It is concluded that the proposed method can be used for future predictions of travel mode choices, unlike IK.

Violência em transporte público: uma abordagem baseada em análise espacial

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To carry out a spatial analysis of the occurrence of acts of violence (specifically robberies) in public transportation, identifying the regions of greater incidence, using geostatistics, and possible causes with the aid of a multicriteria analysis in the Geographic Information System. METHODS The unit of analysis is the traffic analysis zone of the survey named Origem-Destino, carried out in Salvador, state of Bahia, in 2013. The robberies recorded by the Department of Public Security of Bahia in 2013 were located and made compatible with the limits of the traffic analysis zones and, later, associated with the respective centroids. After determining the regions with the highest probability of robbery, we carried out a geographic analysis of the possible causes in the region with the highest robbery potential, considering the factors analyzed using a multicriteria analysis in a Geographic Information System environment. RESULTS The execution of the two steps of this study allowed us to identify areas corresponding to the greater probability of occurrence of robberies in public transportation. In addition, the three most vulnerable road sections (Estrada da Liberdade, Rua Pero Vaz, and Avenida General San Martin) were identified in these areas. In these sections, the factors that most contribute with the potential for robbery in buses are: F1 - proximity to places that facilitate escape, F3 - great movement of persons, and F2 - absence of policing, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Indicator Kriging (geostatistical estimation) can be used to construct a spatial probability surface, which can be a useful tool for the implementation of public policies. The multicriteria analysis in the Geographic Information System environment allowed us to understand the spatial factors related to the phenomenon under analysis.OBJETIVO Realizar uma analise espacial da ocorrencia de atos de violencia (especificamente roubos) em transporte publico, identificando as regioes de maior incidencia, por meio da geoestatistica, e possiveis causas com auxilio de analise multicriterio em Sistema de Informacao Geografica. METODOS A unidade de analise e a zona de trafego da pesquisa Origem-Destino, realizada em Salvador, […]