Claude Diebolt

Educational Development and Labour Markets

For over a century and a half, there have been cyclical phases ofsaturation and shortage in the numbers of students enrolled at German and Prussian universities. Starting from thisobservations, this article constructs a neoclassical glutting theory. A two-fold hypothesis is put forward. Firstly,the behaviour of students in their choice of curriculum depends on the expected rewards. Indeed, the allocation of studentsto the various faculties depends on the comparative yields of the latter in terms of expected earnings and job availabilityin the corresponding professional sectors. Thus, the rewards expected by a student are represented by the earnings on thelabour market at a given moment and that he or she considers to be sustainable in time. Secondly, an attraction phenomenonmay appear for certain curricula when a shortage occurs in different professional sectors. Once the shortagehas been made up, the demand effect continues as a result of delay in the perception of the situation by young people.This may gradually lead to comparative over-production of qualifieduniversity leavers. This unbalanced situation diverts new cohorts ofstudents to other sectors ofeducation and may cause a new shortage, finally resulting in acyclical movement modulated according to job availability.

Les effectifs scolarises en France: XIXeme et XXeme siecles.

This article aims to present an analysis of the change over long periods in school attendance figures in France in the 19th and 20th centuries. The interest of the approach is twofold. Firstly it is of immediate practical interest insofar as it is an original reconstruction of the French educational system. It is also of theoretical interest, as it provides better knowledge of the mechanism regulating the development of the system over a long period. In this respect, reflection is in three parts. First, the chronological series compiled are presented to prepare the statistical analysis. The trends observed are then described and finally a preliminary analysis of the causes of the change is provided, with stress laid on the institutional aspects.

A model of glutting: human capital and labour markets in the long-run

For over a century and a half, there have been cyclical phases of saturation and shortage in the numbers of students enrolled at German and Prussian universities. Starting from this observations, this article constructs a neoclassical glutting theory. A twofold hypothesis is put forward. First, the behaviour of students in their choice of curriculum depends on the expected rewards. Indeed, the allocation of students to the various faculties depends on the comparative yields of the latter in terms of expected earnings and job availability in the corresponding professional sectors. Thus, the rewards expected by a student are represented by the earnings on the labour market at a given moment and that he or she considers to be sustainable in time. Second, an attraction phenomenon may appear for certain curricula when a shortage occurs in different professional sectors. Once the shortage has been made up, the demand effect continues as a result of delay in the perception of the situation by young people. This may gradually lead to comparative over-production of qualified university leavers. This unbalanced situation diverts new cohorts of students to other sectors of education and may cause a new shortage, finally resulting in a cyclical movement modulated according to job availability.

Pourquoi entrer a l'Universite? L'Exemple d'une universite de lettres et sciences humaines

The large number of secondary school graduates entering higher education is transforming the nature of universities, particularly in literature and the humanities, by changing the relative numbers of students enrolled in different academic years. At the same time this influx is accompanied by a significant failure rate in the first academic year, calling into question the efficacy of the university system. A national issue with local repercussions, the struggle against failure in the first year is leading to much heart-searching among the universities, whose staff are trying hard to understand why certain students abandon their studies. The enquiry described in this article reveals the co-existence of two student populations: those who enter university as an active choice and those who do so by default. In the case of the first group, entry to university represents an investment for the future which must be carefully managed. In the second case it is a matter of going into higher education as a faute de mieux solution in an economic context in which work is scarce.

A Note on Seasonal Unit Root Tests

The seasonal unit root tests make it possible to determine the nature of the deterministic and stochastic seasonal fluctuations. In Section 2, we define the main seasonal time series models and the seasonal integration notion. Section 3 describes the HEGY test procedure.