Claude Lopez

State of the Art Unit Root Tests and Purchasing Power Parity

Although the question of whether Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) holds in the long run has been extensively studied, the answer is still controversial. Some of the strongest evidence is provided by Taylor (The Review of Economics and Statistics 84[[2002] 139-150), who concludes that long-run PPP held over the 20th century. We argue that this conclusion is quite sensitive to the use of sub-optimal lag selection in unit root tests. Using superior lag selection methods, we find that long-run PPP held for the real exchange rates of only 9 out of the 16 industrialized countries in Taylors sample with the U.S. dollar as the base currency.

Convergence of Euro Area Inflation Rates

We study the behavior of inflation rates among the 12 initial Euro countries in order to test whether and when the group convergence initially dictated by the Maastricht treaty and now by the ECB, occurs. We also assess the impact of events such as the advent of the Euro and the 2008 financial crisis. Due to the small size of the estimation sample, we propose a new procedure that increases the power of panel unit root tests when used to study group-wise convergence. Applying this new procedure to Euro area inflation, we find strong and lasting evidence of convergence among the inflation rates soon after the implementation of the Maastricht treaty and a dramatic decrease in the persistence of the differential after the occurrence of the single currency. After the 2008 crisis, Euro area inflation rates follow the ECB’s price stability benchmark, although Greece reports relatively higher inflation.

Evidence of Purchasing Power Parity for the Floating Regime Period

This paper investigates the PPP hypothesis within industrialized countries for the post-Bretton Woods period via two panel unit root tests, the DF-GLS-SUR and the ADF-SUR tests, respectively developed by Lopez (2003) and Levin, Lin and Chu (2002). Both approaches allow for data specific serial and contemporaneous correlation. The results lead to two major conclusions. First, by comparing the two test outcomes, we show the importance of the test power on PPP evidence. Then focusing on the results obtained via the DF-GLS-SUR test, we provide reliably strong evidence of PPP for the floating regime period.

Euro-Zone Inflation Rates: Stationary or Regime-Wise Stationary Processes

This study investigates the stationary behavior of the inflation rates for the Euro-zone members and some neighboring countries, for the 1957:2 to 2007:3 period. The analysis uses univariate unit root tests with enhanced small-sample performances that allow up to two breaks in the intercept, namely those of Elliott et al. (1996) and Lopez (2008). The results strongly reject the unit root null hypothesis for all the countries. Furthermore, they demonstrate that some of the Euro-zone inflation rates are stationary and others are regime-wise stationary. While such results may reconcile some of the literature findings and provide empirical evidence that the Maastricht criterion is respected, they also highlight the importance of accounting for breaks when studying these series. Finally, none of the identified breaks take place in the post Euro era.

Remittances, Inflation and Exchange Rate Regimes in Small Open Economies1: REMITTANCES, INFLATION AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

Remittances are private monetary transfers across borders and thus, often, involve different currencies. Yet, the rapidly growing literature on the subject often ignores the role that exchange rate regimes play in determining the effect foreign currency remittances have on a recipient economy. This study uses a theoretical model and panel vector autoregression techniques to understand the effect of remittances on GDP, inflation, real exchange rate (RER) and money supply, depending on the exchange rate regimes. Furthermore, it allows a more detailed description of the short�?run dynamics as it considers yearly but also quarterly data for 21 emerging countries. Our theoretical model predicts that remittances should temporarily increase inflation, GDP, the domestic money supply and appreciate the RER under a fixed regime, but temporarily decrease inflation, increase GDP, appreciate the RER and generate no change in the money supply under a flexible regime. These differences are largely borne out in the data. This adds to our understanding of the true effect of remittances on economies by showing that exchange rate regimes matter for the effects of remittances, especially in the short run for monetary conditions in an economy and suggests that other results in the literature that do not control for regimes may be biased.

Stationary Properties of the Real Interest Rate and the per-capita Consumption Growth Rate: Empirical Evidence for Theoretical Arguments

Many economic theories connecting the real interest rate and the per-capita consumption growth rate require that both rates evolve together over time. This article investigates whether these rates present similar stationary behaviour for the seven most industrialized countries over the 1957–2005 period. The analysis relies on the unit root tests developed by Elliott et al. (1996) and Lopez (2006) to look for stationary or regime-wise stationary behaviour, respectively. Furthermore, the final break selection uses Bai and Perrons (2003) method. The results show, for all the countries considered, that both rates are either stationary or regime-wise stationary with the same number of breaks and, mostly, with corresponding dates. The results hold whether the rates are calculated annually or quarterly.

Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula

In this paper, we propose to identify the dependence structure existing between the returns of equity and commodity futures and its evolution through the past 20 years. The key point is that we do not do not impose the dependence structure but let the data select it. To do so, we model the dependence between commodity (metal, agriculture and energy) and stock markets using a flexible approach that allows us to investigate whether the co-movement is : (i) symmetric and occurring most of the time, (ii) symmetric and occurring mostly during extreme events and (iii) asymmetric and occurring mostly during extreme events. We also allow for this dependence to be time-varying from January 1990 to February 2012. Our analysis uncovers three major stylized facts. First, we find that the dependence between commodity and stock markets is time varying, symmetric and occurs most of the time (as opposed to mostly in extreme events). Second, not allowing for time-varying parameters in the dependence distribution generates a bias toward evidence of tail dependence. Similarly, considering only tail dependence may lead to wrong evidence of asymmetry. Third, a growing comovement between industrial metals and equity markets is identified as early as in 2003, a comovement that spreads to all commodity classes and becomes unambiguously stronger with the global financial crisis after Fall 2008.

Macroprudential Policy: A Silver Bullet or Refighting the Last War?

As many central banks contemplate the normalization of monetary policy, their focus is turning to the promise of macroprudential policy as a tool to manage possible future systemic risk in financial markets. Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi, among others, are pinning much of their hopes for managing financial stability in the context of Basel III on macroprudentialism. Despite central banks’ clear intention that this policy will play a significant role in developed economies, few policymakers or financial players know what macroprudential policy is, much less how to assess its efficacy or necessity. Our report aims to clarify the concept of macroprudential policy for a broader audience, cultivating a better understanding of these tools and their implications for broader monetary policy going forward. The report also advocates the use of more refined indicators for financial cycles as benchmarks for policy discussions on macroprudential policy.

Cross-Border Investment in Europe: From Macro to Financial Data

International capital flows and cross-border financial integration remain omnipresent in the European political debate as countries struggle with low and divergent GDP growth, new European financial regulation and the anticipation of Brexit. In such a shifting environment, this report first identifies some of the more recent patterns in the landscape of European gross cross-border investment followed by a closer look at banking and portfolio investments.

The Asset Management Industry and Systemic Risk: Is There a Connection?

In the aftermath of the financial crisis, new legislation and regulation have pressured banks (and insurances) to reduce their size, leverage, and riskier lines of business in order to avoid another too-big-to-fail debacle. Nonbank financial intermediaries have naturally taken up some of that slack and, not surprisingly, regulatory scrutiny has turned toward these intermediaries to evaluate whether they could pose similar risks to financial stability that banks did pre-crisis. Owing to their stunning growth in the past decade, focus among nonbank intermediaries is now centering on asset managers, which include firms offering mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, hedge funds and private equity funds. This report explores whether there is a demonstrable link between the asset management industry and systemic risk. Key points: - Systemic risk is distinct from run-of-the-mill financial or operational risk, an important difference when determining whether the sector poses a risk to the broader financial system with the potential for negative spillovers into the real economy. - Because asset managers do not take on nearly the same level of leverage and do not guarantee balances on customer accounts as banks do with deposits, it is unlikely that the industry is the epicenter of (or creating) systemic risk in the financial system. Theoretically, however, they hold the potential transmit or amplify systemic risk in the system based on unique risk factors such as herding and liquidity mismatches. - One major regulatory concern is the mismatch between asset management firms offering investors highly liquid investment terms for funds investing in highly illiquid assets, which could create fire sale scenarios that negatively impact financial markets. A close look at the role of high-yield debt markets suggests that major disruptions to the sector’s funding environment could have a significant impact on the real economy. However, even during periods of acute investor outflows, high-yield mutual funds have managed liquidity risk effectively to-date, and high-yield ETFs have actually been a supplemental liquidity source for institutional investors. - In a post-crisis world, regulators have as much power (if not more) than financial firms’ shareholders. Considerations must include: i. The dynamic relationship between financial regulation and financial activity ii. The necessity of proper fiscal and monetary policies to complement prudential oversight iii. The reality that financial markets are connected globally.