Javier A. Reyes

On the topological properties of the world trade web: A weighted network analysis

This paper studies the topological properties of the World Trade Web (WTW) and its evolution over time by employing a weighted-network analysis. We show that the WTW, viewed as a weighted network, displays statistical features that are very different from those obtained by using a traditional binary-network approach. In particular, we find that: (i) the majority of existing links are associated to weak trade relationships; (ii) the weighted WTW is only weakly disassortative; (iii) countries holding more intense trade relationships are more clustered.

International trade and financial integration: a weighted network analysis

The authors analyse patterns of international trade and financial integration using complex network analysis. The combination of both binary and weighted approaches delivers more precise and thorough insights into the topological structure and properties of international trade and financial networks (ITN and IFN). It is found that the ITN is more densely connected than the IFN, while both types of network display a core–periphery structure. This hierarchical organization is more pronounced in financial markets, suggesting that the bulk of trade in financial assets occurs through a handful of countries acting as hubs. High-income countries are better linked and form groups of tightly interconnected nodes. This kind of structure can explain why the recent financial crisis has spread rapidly among advanced countries while reaching emerging markets only in a second phase.

Trade structure and economic growth

Abstract How do the number of trade partners and the concentration of trade among partners affect the economic growth of a country? We refer to these characteristics as the structure of trade, and explore this question empirically in this study. We find that the structure of trade, independently of the level of trade itself, has an important effect on the rate of economic growth. The results of the study suggest that the number of trading partners is positively correlated with growth across all countries, and this effect is more pronounced for rich countries. Trade concentration is positively correlated with growth for all countries, and the effect is concentrated in poor countries. Previous work has overlooked these characteristics of trade, although we find them to be quite relevant and that they could lead to new ways of understanding the trade – growth relationship.

Exchange Rate Passthrough Effects and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies: What is the Relationship?

Several studies have shown that over the past 10 years the passthrough effect from currency depreciation into domestic inflation has been decreasing in emerging economies that adopted inflation targeting (IT) during the mid and late 1990s. Therefore the nominal exchange rate effect on domestic inflation is becoming less of an issue for these countries. The literature has offered different explanations for these declines but so far they have not been directly related to the adoption of IT. This paper shows that lower passthrough effects can also be the result of the implementation of an IT regime and argues, contrary to previous studies, that the effects of the nominal exchange rate on inflation are still a relevant issue for emerging IT countries. The reason for this is that the empirical evidence offered for the lower passthrough misses the nature of the relationship between inflation and the nominal exchange rate under IT.

ASSESSING THE EVOLUTION OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION USING RANDOM WALK BETWEENNESS CENTRALITY: THE CASES OF EAST ASIA AND LATIN AMERICA

Over the past four decades, the high-performing Asian economies (HPAE) have followed a development strategy based on the exposure of their local markets to the presence of foreign competition and on outward-oriented production. In contrast, Latin American (LATAM) economies began taking steps in this direction only in the late 1980s and early 1990s, but before this period they were more focused on the implementation of import substitution policies. These divergent paths have led to sharply different growth performances in the two regions. Yet, standard trade openness indicators fall short of portraying the peculiarity of the Asian experience, and of explaining why other emerging markets with similar characteristics have been less successful over the last 25 years. We offer an alternative perspective on this issue by exploiting recently developed indicators based on weighted network analysis. We study the evolution of the core–periphery structure of the World Trade Network (WTN) and, more specifically, the evolution of the HPAE and LATAM countries within this network. Using random walk betweenness centrality, we show that the HPAE countries are more integrated into the WTN and many of them, which were on the periphery in the 1980s, are now in the core of the network. In contrast, the LATAM economies have at best maintained their position over the 1980–2005 period, and in some cases have fallen in the ranking of centrality.

Using Complex Networks Analysis to Assess the Evolution of International Economic Integration: The Cases of East Asia and Latin America

This paper exploits recently-developed indicators based on network analysis to investigate the pattern of international integration followed by East Asian countries and compares it with the Latin American performance. Standard trade openness indicators fall short of portraying the peculiarity of the Asian experience, and of explaining why other emerging markets with similar characteristics have been less successful over the last 25 years. The analysis offers an alternative perspective on the issue regarding international economic integration by taking into account the whole structure of international trade relationships and by determining both the position of countries in the world trade network, and its evolution over time. We find that East Asian countries are more integrated into the world economy, as they have moved from the periphery of the network towards its core. Our results support the idea that the degree of openness matters but it is not enough to characterize economic integration. The number and identity of trade partners, and the specific individual structure of trade for each country, need to be incorporated in order to fully characterize international economic integration. By doing so, it is possible to argue that the integration process of the East Asian countries mirrors their high economic performance, while the lower degree of integration of Latin America can be related to the lack of economic development of the region, even though their degree of openness has increased.

Risk-Taking Behavior: An Experimental Analysis of Individuals and Dyads

The decision to undertake risk is often made by pairs (dyads), while much of the economics literature on risk taking focuses on the individual. We report the results of controlled laboratory experiments that compare behavior between individuals and pairs. Using the Holt and Laury (2002) procedure and a within-subjects design, we find that pair choices are largely consistent with subjects bargaining over the outcome rather than the pairs taking a more extreme stance than the individual members. Further, gender and age but not personality seem to influence relative bargaining weight. We also find that individuals are more willing to take risks after making decisions as part of a pair than beforehand. Both the personality of ones partner and nontask social interaction influence subsequent individual risk-taking behavior.

Investing versus gambling: experimental evidence of multi-domain risk attitudes

Economists have noted the empirical regularity that an individual’s attitude towards risk is not constant across elicitation settings. Such a pattern is conceptually consistent with the argument in psychology that risk is domain specific. To explore this view, we frame a common risk elicitation tool in laboratory experiments as both a gambling game and an investment opportunity. A survey instrument used to measure one’s attitudes towards risks on different domains is found to explain partially within-subject variation in observed behaviour between the two tasks. The evidence presented in this article demonstrates the need to consider more nuanced approaches to modelling risk.

Technology Diffusion on the International Trade Network

New technologies generate positive externalities — non-innovators can benefit through the adoption or imitation of the new technologies. International trade serves as a major channel for technology diffusion, allowing importing countries to acquire technical knowledge that they can potentially internalize. To empirically test the effects of trade on technology diffusion, the previous literature typically considers the effects of direct (bilateral) trade on indirect measures of technologies (e.g., TFP). We conjecture that the impact of trade on technology diffusion would be more accurately measured by taking into account both the direct and indirect network effects and by using direct measures of technologies (e.g., intensity levels). The international trade system can be considered as a weighted network. Technology may be diffused, not only bilaterally between countries, but also through the network effects, i.e., indirectly by trading with intermediate countries. We find that the network effects of trade play a significant role in technology diffusion. In most cases, countries better-connected on the trade network have higher technology intensities. Further support for the importance of trade is provided by our finding that for “outdated�? technologies, better-connected countries have lower technology intensities.

International reserve holdings: interest rates matter!

We argue that the literature on optimal international reserve holdings in an era of high-capital mobility fails to find interest rates is a strongly significant factor because of the endogeneity of interest rates and reserves under fixed exchange rate regimes. Using two-stage least squares we control this and regain statistical significance for interest rates.