Claude Weis

Models of Mode Choice and Mobility Tool Ownership Beyond 2008 Fuel Prices

A recent project addressed how travelers would react to fuel prices rising above the high levels that were reached in mid 2008. Study participants were recruited during phone interviews, in the course of which trips made on a specified day were recorded. On the basis of one of those trips and the respondents’ possession of mobility tools, stated preference (SP) experiments were constructed. The first part consisted of a mode choice situation under modified price (and travel time) settings (tactical decisions). The second part focused on long-term (strategic) choices between the current and an alternative fleet, including a redistribution of yearly mileage. From the SP data, multinomial logit models for mode and fleet choice were estimated. The mode choice models were estimated by using income- and distance-dependent nonlinear utility functions and separately for the various trip purposes (as was the practice in earlier Swiss studies on similar topics) and controlled for all relevant trip characteristics. The models for mobility tool ownership, which were formulated by using a new approach, aimed to yield trade-offs between the various attributes of the offered fleets and to forecast the distribution of annual transit passes under modified settings. The findings suggest that inertia is present in both mode choice and mobility tool ownership. Elasticities do not change much from previous studies, where more-conservative price increases were assumed. Transit pass ownership is expected to grow only when increasing fuel prices coincide with stable public transport fares.

Reliability in the German value of time study

The German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure is currently preparing the 2015 Federal Transport Investment Plan. Because this effort includes an update to the overall methodology of the ministrys cost–benefit analysis, both the value of reliability (VOR) and the value of travel time (VOT) for personal and business travel will be estimated. The VOT will replace a set of existing values, but the VOR will be estimated for the first time because they are not yet incorporated in the standard appraisal. A two-stage approach was used for data collection: first respondents reported about current trips (revealed preference), and then these responses were systematically varied to become the basis for stated preference experiments. This paper presents the findings of estimating the VOR. In the stated preference experiments the reliability of the travel modes was presented with different formats. The final model formulation differed in the definition of reliability for private and public transport. For car trips, saving travel time had more value for the respondents than reducing the variability. The calculated VOR for the mean expected unscheduled delay of public transport trips was slightly lower than the VOT; this result indicates that the reliability was less important to the respondents than the relevant travel time saving. A mean expected unscheduled delay of 1 min and 1 min of standard deviation are almost equivalent to 1 min of travel time saving (reliability ratio). Because this was the first official estimation of VOR and VOT for Germany, the values should be reconsidered and updated on a regular basis.

Influence of parking on location and mode choice

This paper assesses the effects of parking availability on behavioral responses by travelers, and which approaches are appropriate for modeling those responses. In addition to the well-known trade-offs between travel times and fuel or transit ticket costs, parking search times and costs have a significant impact on travelers’ decisions. A stated choice study of parking, location, and mode choice was conducted to assess those choices. The survey was conducted with a sample of more than 1’200 pre-recruited respondents in Switzerland. Several characteristics of the respondents’ regular travel were recorded during a recruitment interview, which the stated choice experiments were based on. The overall response rate was over 80 percent, and more than 14’000 observations were used for the estimation of the choice models presented here. Two different modeling approaches were tested: one with a deterministic model of taste heterogeneity (using interaction terms for trip distance, duration and income, as has been the practice in earlier studies), and one applying a random parameters approach. Both models were estimated in willingness-to-pay space. The model results indicate that parking characteristics have a significant effect on mode and location choice. The sample distributions for the relevant willingness-to-pay measures and the sample average demand elasticities inferred by the two models, as well as the overall model fit statistics, are slightly different. The deterministic assessment of taste heterogeneity is preferable for application in forecasting models, as it allows the direct computation of the expected effects of a policy on market shares.

Mobilitätsplan Hochschulgebiet Zürich: Dokumente zu den Kapiteln 1, 2 und 4

Die folgenden Abbildungen und Dokumente sind wahrend den Arbeiten am Mobilitatsplan Hochschulgebiet am IVT entstanden oder wurden fur die Arbeiten aus verschiedenen Quellen zusammengetragen. Sie bieten gegenuber dem Hauptbericht zusatzliche Informationen, sind aber fur das Verstandnis des Hauptberichts nicht erforderlich.

Mobilitätsplan Hochschulgebiet Zürich

Die folgenden Abbildungen und Dokumente sind wahrend den Arbeiten am Mobilitatsplan Hochschulgebiet am IVT entstanden oder wurden fur die Arbeiten aus verschiedenen Quellen zusammengetragen. Sie bieten gegenuber dem Hauptbericht zusatzliche Informationen, sind aber fur das Verstandnis des Hauptberichts nicht erforderlich.