Mahmud Yesuf

Does Adaptation to Climate Change Provide Food Security? A Micro-Perspective from Ethiopia

We examine the driving forces behind farmers’ decisions to adapt to climate change, and the impact of adaptation on farmers’ food production. We investigate whether there are differences in the food production functions of farm households that adapted and those that did not adapt. We estimate a simultaneous equations model with endogenous switching to account for the heterogeneity in the decision to adapt or not, and for unobservable characteristics of farmers and their farm. We compare the expected food production under the actual and counterfactual cases that the farm household adapted or not to climate change. We find that the group of farm households that adapted has systematically different characteristics than the group of farm households that did not adapt. The relationship between production and average temperature is inverted U-shaped for farm households that adapted, while it is U-shaped for farm households that did not adapt, and vice versa in the case of precipitation. We find that adaptation increases food production, however, the impact of adaptation on food production is smaller for the farm households that actually did adapt than for the farm households that did not adapt in the counterfactual case that they adapted.

Poverty, Risk Aversion, and Path Dependence in Low-Income Countries: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia

In most low-income countries, rural households depend on mixed rain-fed agriculture/livestock production, which is very risky. Due to numerous market failures, there are few ways to shift risks to third parties. The literature has focused on what determines the responses of households in such environments. Of special concern are path dependencies in which households experiencing failure are prone to further failure and potential poverty traps. This paper estimates levels and determinants of risk aversion in the highlands of Ethiopia. We find high risk aversion and evidence that constraints have important impacts on risk-averting behavior with perhaps significant implications for long-term poverty. The results also suggest the possibility of path dependence and offer insights into links between risk aversion and poverty traps. Copyright 2009, Oxford University Press.

STRATEGIES TO ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND FARM PRODUCTIVITY IN THE NILE BASIN OF ETHIOPIA

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the role of different climate change adaptation strategies in supporting food productivity in Ethiopia. The analysis relies on unique primary survey data on 1000 farms producing cereal crops in the Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Based on monthly collected meteorological station data, the Thin Plate Spline method of spatial interpolation is used to impute the household specific rainfall and temperature values of each household. The rainfall data is disaggregated at season level (Meher and Belg). Econometric results show that the implementation of adaptation strategies supports farm productivity. Changing crops is found to be the most successful strategy, followed by the implementation of soil conservation and tree planting. We complement the analysis with some evidence on the determinants of adaptation. We find that extension services (both formal and farmer-to-farmer) and information on future climate changes affect positively and significantly the probability of adaptation through changing crops and tree planting. This finding highlights the crucial role played by information dissemination in improving farmers decision-making.

Global carbon markets: Opportunities for sub-Saharan Africa in agriculture and forestry

Developing countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), remain marginalized in global carbon markets despite significant mitigation opportunities in agriculture and forestry. The economic potential for mitigation through agriculture in the African region is estimated at 17 per cent of the total global mitigation potential for the sector. Similarly, Africas forestry potential is 23 per cent of the global total for the sector. To unleash the huge potential for mitigation in SSA, carbon markets should be expanded to include projects related to agriculture, forestry and other land uses (AFOLU). Given the important synergies between agricultural mitigation and adaptation, and the difficulties in reaching out to smallholder farmers and herders, as well as the increasing poverty and hunger in the region, this article suggests that not only should carbon markets be expanded to include more AFOLU project types, but carbon markets should also increase benefits directed at smallholder farmers. Domestic policies in SSA should also be reformed to increase the profitability of environmentally sustainable practices that generate income for small producers and create investment flows for rural communities. This review paper provides an overview of global carbon markets, focusing on opportunities for carbon trading in agriculture in SSA. Major constraints to the participation of SSA in global carbon markets are discussed, and options for integrating the region into global carbon markets are proposed.

Livestock and Private Tree Holdings in Rural Ethiopia: The Effects of Collective Action Institutions, Tenure Security and Market Access

Abstract This article uses househld panel data spanning the period 2000–2007 to test hypotheses from the literature that secure land tenure, market access and collective action promote accumulation of private capital assets in rural highland Ethiopia. The three natural capital assets analysed in the article, livestock, eucalyptus trees and non-eucalyptus trees on households’ farm plots, make up virtually 100 per cent of privately held disposable assets. Incomes and capital stocks are extremely low and constant and tree assets are at least as important as livestock. We find that collective action and secure land tenure have strong positive effects on accumulation of livestock and other trees, but not eucalyptus. We also find evidence that market access promotes eucalyptus holdings and that other types of wealth tend to be positively associated with private natural capital stocks.

Ambiguity aversion among student subjects: the role of probability interval and emotional parameters

Abstract In the literature on decision-making under uncertainty, it has been shown that decision-makers tend to prefer taking gambles with known-risk probabilities (pure risk) over equivalent gambles with ambiguous probabilities. This article contributes to the ongoing discussion in the literature on cognitive and non-cognitive covariates of ambiguity aversion. Through a series of experiments, it finds that subjects are more ambiguity-averse to prospects with wide probability intervals than to an equivalent prospect with narrow intervals, and that subjects’ inherent trust, happiness and level of optimism affect the level of ambiguity aversion.