Claudio Detotto

Crime as tourism externality

Biagi B. and Detotto C. Crime as tourism externality, Regional Studies. This paper analyses the linkage between tourism and crime with a particular focus on the distortions generated onto criminal activities by the presence of visitors. Controlling for socio-demographic and economic variables, the contribution of tourist arrivals to different types of crimes for 103 Italian provinces and for the year 2005 are empirically investigated. The possible spillover effects of crime are taken into account by testing two spatial models (one spatial lag model and one spatial error model). The hypothesis is also tested according to which different geography of tourist destinations – that is, urban, mountain, marine, etc. – alters the impact of tourism on crime. Finally, the social cost of crime associated with tourist arrivals is measured.

Counting the cost of crime in Italy

We gauge the cost of crime in Italy by concentrating on a subset of offences covering about 64% of total recorded crimes in the year 2006. Following the breakdown of costs put forward by Brand and Price, we focus on the costs in anticipation, as a consequence, and in response to a specific offence. The estimated total social cost is more than €38 billion, which amounts to about 2.6% of Italys GDP. To show the usefulness of these measures, we borrow the elasticity estimates from recent studies concerning the determinants of crime in Italy and calculate the cost associated with the surge in crime fuelled by unemployment and pardons. Indeed, in both cases such costs are substantial, implying that they should no longer be skipped when assessing the relative desirability of public policies towards crime.

The Effect of Tourism on Crime in Italy: A Dynamic Panel Approach

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that, for the case of Italy, ceteris paribus, tourist areas tend to have a greater amount of crime than non-tourist ones in the short and long run. Following the literature of the economics of crime a la Becker (Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach, 1968) and Enrlich (Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation, 1973) and using a System GMM approach for the time span 19852003, the authors empirically test whether total crime in Italy is affected by the presence of tourists. Findings confirm the initial intuition of a positive relationship between tourism and crime in destinations. When using the level rather than the rate of total crime and controlling for the equivalent tourists (i.e. the number of tourists per day in a given destination) the effect of the tourist variable is confirmed. Overall results indicate however that the resident population has a greater effect on crime than the tourist population. Therefore, the main explanation for the impact of tourism on crime seems to be agglomeration effects.

The economic consequences of crime in Italy

This paper employs provincial data to study the relationship between several crime typologies, namely murder, theft, robbery and fraud, and economic output in Italy. We employ a spatial econometric approach where the spatial proximity is defined by a measure of physical distance between locations, in order to take into account possible spill-over effects. The model used here combines a spatial autoregressive model with autoregressive disturbances. In modelling the outcome for each location depends on a weighted average of the outcomes of other locations. Outcomes are determined simultaneously. The results of the spatial two stage least square estimation suggest that the homicide rate has a negative impact on Italian gross domestic product while theft, robbery and fraud do not affect economic output and that there are beneficial spill-overs from neighbouring provinces.

Evidence of Marginal Deterrence: Kidnapping and Murder in Italy

Empirical evidence of the marginal deterrent effect is provided. Exploring a data set of kidnapping crimes in Italy between 1960 and 2012, changes in Italian policy regarding sanctions for kidnapping and their associated impact on murders is considered. Deaths associated with kidnappings increase in prevalence when the kidnapping sanction increased, causing a decrease in the marginal sanction for murder. Death rates reversed when enhanced sanctions for murder were later introduced.

Understanding Ransom Kidnappings and Their Duration

Abstract What factors drive the length of a kidnapping experience? A theoretical model is developed to conduct comparative statics. A unique data set covering all kidnappings for ransom in Sardinia between 1960 and 2010 is analyzed. Factors related to the ability to pay and cost of abduction matter. Policies aimed at deterring kidnapping have mixed effects on its duration.

The bidirectional relationship between gambling and addictive substances

This study aims to analyse the co-occurrence of gambling activity and the consumption of addictive substances, such as tobacco, alcohol and drugs. By using a sample of 709 gamblers in Sardinia (Italy), a multivariate probit approach is proposed since it allows simultaneous study of the extent of correlation between the consumption of different substances. Our findings document that, on the one hand, betting more money leads to an increase in the propensity to consume tobacco in the middle of the game, and, on the other hand, the simultaneous co-occurrence of smoking, alcohol and drugs drives up the probability of getting more involved in gambling activity. Knowing the positive reinforcing effects of addictive substances is the first step towards implementing the most effective prevention and treatment modalities for problem/pathological gamblers.