Juan Gabriel Brida

Has the tourism-led growth hypothesis been validated? A literature review

Over 10 years have passed since the first paper on the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH) was published in 2002. Since then, a wave of studies has appeared trying to understand the temporal relationship between tourism and economic growth. Hence, it is possible to provide an assessment in terms of econometric methods used and main empirical findings achieved so far. This paper presents an exhaustive review of approximately 100 peer-reviewed published papers on the TLGH. An overview on the economic theoretical framework behind the TLGH is also provided. Notably, the results present an increasing diversification in the econometric modelling used. With a few exceptions, the empirical findings suggest that overall international tourism drives economic growth.

Cruise Tourism Externalities and Residents' Support: A Generalized Ordered Logit Analysis

This paper investigates residents preferences towards cruise tourism investment in their home port. The research uses data collected during the peak cruise season in 2011 at Messina, a port of call in Sicily, Italy. A generalized ordered logit analysis is run to analyse what factors influence the residents preferences towards investment in cruise tourism. Positive and negative externalities produced by this economic activity, as well as socio-demographic and economic determinants are taken into account. Overall, the resource investment choice of residents in Messina was dependent upon: their income dependency on the cruise activity, their own personal cruise experience, family size, the expected increase in welfare (i.e. increase in public and private investment), whether they are affected by urban and rural gentrification and the value placed on community life style and heritage conservation. Nevertheless, residents would tend to decrease investments in cruise activity if they are female, retired or perceive the environment to be deteriorating. Implications for policy makers are drawn from the empirical findings.

A Classification and Regression Tree (CART) to Analyse Cruisers’ Expenditure Pattern and Perception in a Port of Call

This study analyses cruise visitors’ perceptions in a port-of-call. The empirical data were collected via a survey in Cartagena de Indias (Colombia) during 2009. A high quality and an original database was obtained for such a niche of economy activity. The novelty of this paper consists of a few methodological enhancements. First, a hierarchical cluster analysis, based on the results of a correspondence analysis and two stopping rules, has robustly demonstrated the existence of six different clusters. Second, a CART is used to identify which variables are better predictors to classify individuals in the different clusters. The empirical findings imply several policy directions for each of the clusters. Specifically, institutions intervention should enhance security in Cartagena to guarantee inland repeated visits; an ad hoc marketing policy may encourage revisit by young South American customers; destination managers should extend the inland visiting time that is likely to produce local multiplier effects.

Cruise Visitors’ Intention to Return as Land Tourists and Recommend a Visited Destination: A Structural Equation Model

This study analyses cruise visitors travel experience, their intention to return to a destination as land tourists and the probability to recommend. Consumers satisfaction is evaluated by taking into account the economic production factors, that is human and physical capital. Satisfaction with prices is also included to evaluate the monetary value of the overall purchasing experience. Safety in the harbour is considered as a further attribute. The empirical data were collected via a survey of cruise ship passengers that stopped in Cartagena de Indias (Colombia) during 2009. A structural equation model (SEM) is developed. The findings reveal that satisfaction is positively affected by human and physical capital, while overall satisfaction positively influences customers loyalty. Loyalty is also positively influenced by prices, whereas negatively by an unsafe perception. Finally, loyalty positively effects both the probability of return as land tourists and to recommend, though with a different magnitude.

How Much Time Do Visitors Spend in a Cultural Site? An Empirical Investigation

This paper examines the determinants that influence the time spent by visitors in a cultural site. This empirical investigation is based on survey data collected at the South Tyrols Museum of Archaeology in Bolzano (Italy) between June and August 2010. Descriptive statistics show that on average visitors at the museum spend almost two hours, much longer than the length of stay in museums as found in other empirical studies. Empirically, a zero-truncated Poisson model has proved to achieve the best empirical results. The findings reveal that gender, age, income, group type, time spent at the destination, importance attributed to the museum and weather conditions have an impact on length of stay at the cultural site. These findings provide an useful tool to implement management directions around the museum.