Clive Bean

Leadership Effects in Parliamentary Elections in Australia and Britain.

Political party leaders are an increasingly influential electoral force in contemporary liberal democracies. We test the hypothesis that their appeal is idiosyncratic, that is, that their electoral effect is a function of the leadership qualities voters perceive individual candidates as possessing. Thus, the less similar their personality profiles, the more the characteristics influencing the vote should differ from one leader to another. A comparison of Australia and Britain finds the opposite to be the case. Despite the divergent profiles of party leaders, the precise characteristics influencing the vote are remarkably similar in the two countries. This does not mean, however, that variation in the distribution of these characteristics is unimportant. It can affect the balance of the party vote and may even have been the difference between victory and defeat for the Australian Labor party in the closely fought 1987 election.

Popular Support for the Welfare State: A Comparison Between Institutional Regimes

Apart from the preoccupation with raising revenue for the welfare state, the question of popular support is central to its future. Arguments about the prospects for the welfare state, about its social and political bases of support and about classifying different types of regime provide the context of our investigation. Our approach is to examine empirical evidence of the connection between support for the welfare state and (a) different types of regime and (b) social and political factors. The analysis of these relationships has important implications for policy-makers who are concerned about consent to their programmes and about the experiences of comparable regimes.

The Electoral Influence of Party Leader Images in Australia and New Zealand

Although the electoral influence of voter attitudes toward American presidential candidates has never seriously been questioned, only in relatively recent times has the existence of an equivalent effect for political party leaders in parliamentary systems become well-accepted. This analysis seeks to extend the understanding of the nature of parliamentary leadership effects to encompass the types of specific leadership qualities that influence electoral choice. Data from open-ended questions in surveys conducted in Australia in 1979 and New Zealand in 1981, taken together with earlier research, indicate a broad similarity of voter responses to different political leaders, in parliamentary as well as presidential systems. In particular, the criteria voters take into account most consistently when making leadership-based electoral decisions are positive perceptions of the “performance relevant” qualities of competence and integrity. This is evidence against the argument that voting on the basis of leadership personality is in some sense “irrational.”

The Personal Vote in Australian Federal Elections

Although there has been little reliable evidence to date, the ‘personal vote’ for local Members of Parliament in Australian elections is generally thought to be negligible by political scientists. This article analyses new data from the 1987 Australian National Social Science Survey which demonstrate that the personal vote is a significant factor in federal lower house elections even when numerous other variables known to influence voting behaviour are controlled for. The data allow a calculation of the potential electoral effect of the personal vote which shows that it could be worth at least 3 per cent in some circumstances. The analysis tests for varying levels of personal voting in safe and marginal seats, Labor and coalition seats, urban and rural seats and according to the length of time the incumbent has been in office. Lastly, the electoral effects of the social background of local members are examined.

Partisan stability and short‐term change in the 1987 federal election: Evidence from the NSSS panel survey

Abstract This article brings new evidence to bear on two old questions and two new ones. First, we analyse cross‐sectional voting patterns in the five federal elections between 1977 and 1987. We find that the effects of class and party remain remarkably stable over this decade, which suggests that the much touted decline of class from World War II into the 1970s may have bottomed out by the 1980s. Second, we show that individual voting patterns are also remarkably stable, if anything more stable than in the 1960s; there is no sign of the increase in electoral volatility found in other English speaking countries. Third, we analyse changes over the last parliament, between‐the 1984 and 1987 elections. We find that changes in voters’ views in this period are influenced mainly by changes in their opinion of the key political leaders, not by their class, ideology, or opinions on the issues of the day. Finally, we investigate what would have happened if the oppositions leaders had been as popular as Labors. O...

PARTICIPATION AND POLITICAL PROTEST: A Causal Model with Australian Evidence

This paper examines a model of political participation and political protest that includes the several well-established modes of orthodox participation as well as a number of dimensions of political protest, and also takes account of the causal order between conventional participation and protest. The analysis indicates that previous findings demonstrating a substantial positive association between unidimensional measures of conventional and unconventional political behavior are incomplete and indeed somewhat misleading. The connection between orthodox participation and protest weakens as the style of protest becomes more unorthodox, to such an extent that none of the separate modes of conventional participation are directly related to “radical” protest. Using sheaf coefficients, the paper also tests the relative explanatory power of three sets of determinants of participation and protest: social background characteristics, general orientations toward politics, and attitudes toward issues. Issues are repeatedly weaker than the other two groups of variables in predicting conventional participation but have relatively strong effects on political protest, particularly compared with political orientations, while social structure is consistently influential.

Gender and Local Political Interest: Some International Comparisons*

Since the 1970s, political science research suggests no significant gender differences in overall levels of participation. For example, an examination of current rates of conventional political participation and voter turnout indicates little difference between men and women in either the United States, Great Britain, West Germany, Italy or other western industrial nations.1 Despite this disappearance of gender differences in political participation, however, both national and international research suggests an enduring gender gap in political interest. Regardless of country of origin, women remain less politically interested than men.2

Orthodox Political Participation in Australia

In the study of Australian mass political behaviour, political party preference has been well documented but political par ticipation has not. Using factor analysis this article establishes that the four modes of orthodox political participation which have been identified in a wide variety of national settings, viz. campaigning, voting, communal activity and personalised con tacting, apply also in Australia. Furthermore, Australia is in the cross-national mainstream in terms of the factors most promi nent in determining participation and also, to the extent the data permit such judgements, in the proportions of its citizens who participate in different political activities. The article develops an explanatory model containing an array of social background and subjective political orientation variables and applies it in turn to the four separate dimensions and to a com bined participation scale. Among other factors, interest in pol itics, strength of partisanship, place of residence and education feature as key determinants of participation. In broad terms, mass political participation is striking for the regularity of its frequency and causal antecedents in many different cultures.

Public attitudes on the monarchy‐republic issue

Although the Australian public is divided on the issue of whether Australia should retain the monarchy or become a republic, there is some evidence of a long‐term trend away from support for the monarchy which appears to have accelerated rapidly in the last year. Public attitudes vary somewhat depending on whether the question relates to the importance of the monarchy to Australia or to the more explicit constitutional question of substituting a republican system for the monarchy. This paper uses longitudinal sample survey data to examine the social and political bases of public attitudes on the monarchy‐republic issue. Indications from the data are that proponents of a referendum to turn Australia into a republic have an uphill battle in front of them in the short term. One factor in particular that traditionally makes it very difficult for referendums to succeed stands in the way, namely, a strong partisan division on the issue. Cohort analysis, however, suggests that a solid republican majority will em...

Issues in the 1993 Election

On the face of it there are good grounds to assume that 1993 may have been an exception to the rule that issues debated in Australian federal election campaigns do not generally have strong effects on electoral choice in the end. The government was beset by a poor recent economic record, emphasised most strongly by the recession and record levels of unemployment. Economic theories of elections suggest that such difficulties ought to have been a major liability for the government. Against this the opposition approached the election with the highly unusual strategy of advancing its own agenda of radical economic reforms, most prominently the goods and services tax and proposed changes to the industrial relations system. Issues relating to health care, family support and child care also featured prominently in the campaign and the question was frequently raised as to whether women and men would respond differently on such matters. This paper analyses the impact of these and other campaign issues on voting be...