Ian McAllister

Compulsory voting, turnout and party advantage in Australia∗

Abstract Who votes or does not vote in a voluntary system has long been thought to have distinct benefits for different political parties. High turnout has been seen as aiding parties of the left, low turnout parties of the right. Although Australia has a compulsory system of voting, this paper shows tha there are still party advantages and disadvantages associated with the 5 percent of the eligible electorate who fail to vote. When turnout is high, Labor makes a net gain in votes, and when turnout is low, the Liberal‐National coalition benefit. Making estimates of nonvoting in Britain and applying them to Australia indicates that this pattern would persist if voluntary voting were applied to Australia, giving the Liberal‐National coalition an inbuilt advantage.

II. Social context, turnout, and the vote: Australian and British comparisons

Abstract Many studies have examined the importance of the social context in which an individual lives and the effect this has on their political behaviour. Almost without exception, social context has been found to be of substantial electoral significance. By applying multivariate analysis to aggregate- and individual-level Australian and British data, these claims are questioned. The paper argues, firstly, that findings which have emphasized the importance of context are greatly overestimated and caused by a failure to control for a sufficiently wide range of variables; once these controls are introduced, the electoral significance of context disappears in Britain, and is greatly reduced in Australia. Secondly, the small but statistically significant effect of context in Australia is the result of the compulsory voting system in that country. In Britain, it is argued that non-voters are most likely to take their electoral cues from their immediate context, but since they abstain, there is no contextual effect. In Australia, by contrast, they are forced to vote by law and cause the small contextual effect found there.

Dimensions of environmentalism: Public opinion, political activism and party support in Australia

Public opinion on the environment is usually viewed as a homogeneous entity. This assumption can be questioned by identifying the major dimensions of public opinion on environmentalism using national survey data collected in Australia in late 1990. The public conceptualises the environment in terms of three dimensions: a cosmopolitan dimension, encompassing national and international concerns; a local dimension focusing on general concerns; and a local dimension concerned solely with damage to land. Cosmopolitanism has its roots in value change, stimulates increased environmental activism, and helps to mobilise support for and against the major political parties. By contrast, there is less popular support for self‐interested local environmental concerns, and this dimension has fewer political implications. The role of political parties in politicising these dimensions is central and raises questions about the continuing electoral presence of green parties and groups within the Australian party system.

Constituency campaigning in parliamentary systems with preferential voting: Is there a paradox?

Abstract This paper sets out to show whether constituency campaign effects exist, particularly in the context of a preferential electoral system such as Australias. Data from the 1993 Australian Election Study suggest that, despite the best efforts of the candidates, local campaigning has a very limited impact on the vote. The paper considers a range of possible explanations for this limited impact: displacement, MPs perceptions of their role, sources of campaign information, the importance of party labels in Australia, party discipline. It concludes with an explanation for the apparent paradox of why candidates bother campaigning when it does not make a difference to their vote.

The Changing Military Profession: Integrating Women in the Australian Defence Force

Along with the church, the military is the last major profession in which women face significant and entrenched obstacles to career advancement. In this paper, we examine the progress of women in the Australian Defence Force in the past two decades, and analyse attitudes towards female integration in the officer corps. The data are provided by a survey of 1518 officer cadets in Australias four officer-producing institutions conducted in 1987, 1988 and 1989. The results show that family and educational background is of little significance in determining attitudes towards integration, but that gender and military values exert a strong influence. Possible reasons for these results are discussed and the prospects for the continued integration of women in the officer corps are evaluated.

Changing Australian opinion on defence: Trends, patterns, and explanations

(1991). Changing Australian opinion on defence: Trends, patterns, and explanations. Small Wars & Insurgencies: Vol. 2, Defence and the Media in time of Limited War, pp. 195-235.

Party commitment, vote switching and liberal decline in Australia∗

Abstract Electoral outcomes are determined in part by voters who switch their political allegiance between elections. Though the subject of extensive study in other countries, this floating vote has received comparatively little attention in Australia. This paper uses 1967 and 1979 survey data to analyse vote switching in Australian elections. We argue, firstly, that turnover tables based on recalled voting are, as research in other countries has shown, inaccurate reflections of the election result. As an alternative, we propose a measure of ‘potential’ vote switching based on the concept of lifetime voting. Secondly, using this concept of lifetime voting to derive a measure of party commitment allows the construction of a three‐fold typology of Australian voters — partisans, marginals and switchers. Finally, a longitudinal analysis of the voting patterns of these three groups indicates a gradual erosion of electoral commitment to the Liberal party, whereas Labor has largely retained its partisan base.

Value Differences among Leaders and the Workforce in Australia

Broad agreement on societal values is an important determinant of political legitimacy and stability in liberal democracies. This article examines the extent of such agreement in Australia by comparing the opinions of leaders in government, business and trade unions with the views of the workforce on a series of key topics related to institutions, social issues, and policy measures. The results show that on matters of institutional performance, economic management and the causes of unemployment, leaders hold views quite distinct from those of the workforce. On other issues, leaders themselves are in disagreement, and trade union leaders in particular are more likely to side with the workforce than with other leaders. At other times - for example, in evaluating mass media - the views of trade union leaders are at odds with those of the workforce they represent. These results reveal no clear or consistent pattern of value cleavages, either between leaders and the workforce, or between business and labour. For the most part, values are pragmatic and ad hoc, and reflect self-interest on particular issues rather than a consistent cleavage of sentiment or belief.