Cody T. Ross

A Multi-Level Bayesian Analysis of Racial Bias in Police Shootings at the County-Level in the United States, 2011-2014.

A geographically-resolved, multi-level Bayesian model is used to analyze the data presented in the U.S. Police-Shooting Database (USPSD) in order to investigate the extent of racial bias in the shooting of American civilians by police officers in recent years. In contrast to previous work that relied on the FBI’s Supplemental Homicide Reports that were constructed from self-reported cases of police-involved homicide, this data set is less likely to be biased by police reporting practices. County-specific relative risk outcomes of being shot by police are estimated as a function of the interaction of: 1) whether suspects/civilians were armed or unarmed, and 2) the race/ethnicity of the suspects/civilians. The results provide evidence of a significant bias in the killing of unarmed black Americans relative to unarmed white Americans, in that the probability of being {black, unarmed, and shot by police} is about 3.49 times the probability of being {white, unarmed, and shot by police} on average. Furthermore, the results of multi-level modeling show that there exists significant heterogeneity across counties in the extent of racial bias in police shootings, with some counties showing relative risk ratios of 20 to 1 or more. Finally, analysis of police shooting data as a function of county-level predictors suggests that racial bias in police shootings is most likely to emerge in police departments in larger metropolitan counties with low median incomes and a sizable portion of black residents, especially when there is high financial inequality in that county. There is no relationship between county-level racial bias in police shootings and crime rates (even race-specific crime rates), meaning that the racial bias observed in police shootings in this data set is not explainable as a response to local-level crime rates.

An empirical comparison of short tandem repeats (STRs) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for relatedness estimation in Chinese rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta)

We compare the effectiveness of short tandem repeat (STR) and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes for estimating pairwise relatedness, using molecular data and pedigree records from a captive Chinese rhesus macaque population at the California National Primate Research Center. We find that a panel of 81 SNPs is as effective at estimating first‐order kin relationships as a panel of 14 highly polymorphic STRs. We note, however, that the selected STRs provide more precise predictions of relatedness than the selected SNPs, and may be preferred in contexts that require the discrimination of kin related more distantly than first‐order relatives. Additionally, we compare the performance of three commonly used relatedness estimation algorithms, and find that the Wang [2002] algorithm outperforms other algorithms when analyzing STR data, while the Queller & Goodnight [1989] algorithm outperforms other algorithms when analyzing SNP data. Future research is needed to address the number of SNPs required to reach the discriminatory power of a standard STR panel in relatedness estimation for primate colony management. Am. J. Primatol. 76:313–324, 2014.

New frontiers in the study of human cultural and genetic evolution.

In this review, we discuss the dynamic linkages between culture and the genetic evolution of the human species. We begin by briefly describing the framework of gene-culture coevolutionary (or dual-inheritance) models for human evolutionary change. Until recently, the literature on gene-culture coevolution was composed primarily of mathematical models and formalized theory describing the complex dynamics underlying human behavior, adaptation, and technological evolution, but had little empirical support concerning genetics. The rapid progress in the fields of molecular genetics and genomics, however, is now providing the kinds of data needed to produce rich empirical support for gene-culture coevolutionary models. We briefly outline how theoretical and methodological progress in genome sciences has provided ways for the strength of selection on genes to be evaluated, and then outline how evidence of selection on several key genes can be directly linked to human cultural practices. We then describe some exciting new directions in the empirical study of gene-culture coevolution, and conclude with a discussion of the role of gene-culture evolutionary models in the future integration of medical, biological, and social sciences.

Production risk, inter-annual food storage by households and population-level consequences in seasonal prehistoric agrarian societies

Abstract Using complementary behavioural and population ecological models, we explore the role of production risk, normal surplus and inter-annual food storage in the adaptations of societies dependent on seasonal agriculture. We find that (a) household-level, risk-sensitive adaption to unpredictable environmental variation in annual agricultural yields is a sufficient explanation for the origins of normal agrarian surplus and, consequently, of household-level incentives for inter-annual food storage; and, (b) at the population level, density-dependent Malthusian processes tightly constrain the circumstances under which this same mechanism can be effective in smoothing inter-annual fluctuations in household food availability. Greater environmental variation and higher levels of fixed set-asides such as seed requirements or transfer obligations to political authorities lead to more severe, periodic famines; however, outside of famine events, these same factors improve average population welfare by suppressing population density to levels at which Malthusian constraints have lessened impact. The combination of behavioural and population ecological modelling methods has broad and complementary potential for illustrating the dynamic properties of complex, coupled human–natural systems.

A large-scale SNP-based genomic admixture analysis of the captive rhesus macaque colony at the California National Primate Research Center.

Some breeding facilities in the United States have crossbred Chinese and Indian rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta) founders either purposefully or inadvertently. Genetic variation that reflects geographic origins among research subjects has the potential to influence experimental outcomes. The use of animals from different geographic regions, their hybrids, and animals of varying degrees of kinship in an experiment can obscure treatment effects under study because high interanimal genetic variance can increase phenotypic variance among the research subjects. The intent of this study, based on a broad genomic analysis of 2,808 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), is to ensure that only animals estimated to be of pure Indian or Chinese ancestry, based on both demographic and genetic information, are used as sources of infants for derivation and expansion of the California National Primate Research Centers (CNPRC) super‐Specific Pathogen Free (SSPF) rhesus macaque colony. Studies of short tandem repeats (STRs) in Indian and Chinese rhesus macaques have reported that heterozygosity of STRs is higher in Chinese rhesus macaques than in Indian rhesus macaques. The present study shows that heterozygosity of SNPs is actually higher in Indian than in Chinese rhesus macaques and that the Chinese SSPF rhesus macaque colony is far less differentiated from their founders compared to the Indian‐origin animals. The results also reveal no evidence of recent gene flow from long‐tailed and pig‐tailed macaques into the source populations of the SSPF rhesus macaques. This study indicates that many of the long‐tailed macaques held in the CNPRC are closely related individuals. Most polymorphisms shared among the captive rhesus, long‐tailed, and pig‐tailed macaques likely predate the divergence among these groups. Am. J. Primatol. 74:747‐757, 2012.

A hierarchical bayesian analysis of parasite prevalence and sociocultural outcomes: The role of structural racism and sanitation infrastructure

We conduct a revaluation of the Thornhill and Fincher research project on parasites using finely‐resolved geographic data on parasite prevalence, individual‐level sociocultural data, and multilevel Bayesian modeling. In contrast to the evolutionary psychological mechanisms linking parasites to human behavior and cultural characteristics proposed by Thornhill and Fincher, we offer an alternative hypothesis that structural racism and differential access to sanitation systems drive both variation in parasite prevalence and differential behaviors and cultural characteristics.

Sit-and-wait versus active-search hunting: A behavioral ecological model of optimal search mode

Drawing on Skellam׳s (1958) work on sampling animal populations using transects, we derive a behavioral ecological model of the choice between sit-and-wait and active-search hunting. Using simple, biologically based assumptions about the characteristics of predator and prey, we show how an empirically definable parameter space favoring active-search hunting expands as: (1) the average rate of movement of prey decreases, or (2) the energetic costs of hunter locomotion decline. The same parameter space narrows as: (3) prey skittishness increases as a function of a hunter׳s velocity, or (4) prey become less detectable as a function of a hunter׳s velocity. Under either search tactic, encounter rate increases as a function of increasing prey velocity and increasing detection zone radius. Additionally, we investigate the roles of habitat heterogeneity and spatial auto-correlation or grouping of prey on the optimal search mode of a hunter, finding that habitat heterogeneity has the potential to complicate application of the model to some empirical examples, while the effects of prey grouping lead to relatively similar model outcomes. As predicted by the model, the introduction of the horse to the Great Plains and the introduction of the snowmobile to Arctic foraging communities decreased the metabolic costs of active-search and led to a change in normative hunting strategies that favored active-search in place of sit-and-wait hunting.

Inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) regulatory region variation in non-human primates

Inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) is an enzyme that plays a key role in intracellular immune response against respiratory infections. Since various species of nonhuman primates exhibit different levels of susceptibility to infectious respiratory diseases, and since variation in regulatory regions of genes is thought to play a key role in expression levels of genes, two candidate regulatory regions of iNOS were mapped, sequenced, and compared across five species of nonhuman primates: African green monkeys (Chlorocebus sabaeus), pig-tailed macaques (Macaca nemestrina), cynomolgus macaques (Macaca fascicularis), Indian rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta), and Chinese rhesus macaques (M. mulatta). In addition, we conducted an in silico analysis of the transcription factor binding sites associated with genetic variation in these two candidate regulatory regions across species. We found that only one of the two candidate regions showed strong evidence of involvement in iNOS regulation. Specifically, we found evidence of 13 conserved binding site candidates linked to iNOS regulation: AP-1, C/EBPB, CREB, GATA-1, GATA-3, NF-AT, NF-AT5, NF-κB, KLF4, Oct-1, PEA3, SMAD3, and TCF11. Additionally, we found evidence of interspecies variation in binding sites for several regulatory elements linked to iNOS (GATA-3, GATA-4, KLF6, SRF, STAT-1, STAT-3, OLF-1 and HIF-1) across species, especially in African green monkeys relative to other species. Given the key role of iNOS in respiratory immune response, the findings of this study might help guide the direction of future studies aimed to uncover the molecular mechanisms underlying the increased susceptibility of African green monkeys to several viral and bacterial respiratory infections.

Evolutionary Distance of Amino Acid Sequence Orthologs across Macaque Subspecies: Identifying Candidate Genes for SIV Resistance in Chinese Rhesus Macaques

We use the Reciprocal Smallest Distance (RSD) algorithm to identify amino acid sequence orthologs in the Chinese and Indian rhesus macaque draft sequences and estimate the evolutionary distance between such orthologs. We then use GOanna to map gene function annotations and human gene identifiers to the rhesus macaque amino acid sequences. We conclude methodologically by cross-tabulating a list of amino acid orthologs with large divergence scores with a list of genes known to be involved in SIV or HIV pathogenesis. We find that many of the amino acid sequences with large evolutionary divergence scores, as calculated by the RSD algorithm, have been shown to be related to HIV pathogenesis in previous laboratory studies. Four of the strongest candidate genes for SIVmac resistance in Chinese rhesus macaques identified in this study are CDK9, CXCL12, TRIM21, and TRIM32. Additionally, ANKRD30A, CTSZ, GORASP2, GTF2H1, IL13RA1, MUC16, NMDAR1, Notch1, NT5M, PDCD5, RAD50, and TM9SF2 were identified as possible candidates, among others. We failed to find many laboratory experiments contrasting the effects of Indian and Chinese orthologs at these sites on SIVmac pathogenesis, but future comparative studies might hold fertile ground for research into the biological mechanisms underlying innate resistance to SIVmac in Chinese rhesus macaques.

Mechanisms of Cultural Change and the Transition to Sustainability

 Abstract Humans learn and share information on a massive scale through the use of culture. In this paper, we will outline the mechanisms of evolutionary cultural change, evaluate their role in ecologically destructive feedback loops, and conclude by describing how we might harness the mechanisms of cultural evolution to favor ecologically and socially beneficial change. A virtue of the science of cultural evolution is that it is developed on the same basic framework of ecology and evolution that applies to the natural world, giving it a synthetic role in linking the human behavioral sciences to the natural sciences.