Colin J. Long

Wildfire responses to abrupt climate change in North America

It is widely accepted, based on data from the last few decades and on model simulations, that anthropogenic climate change will cause increased fire activity. However, less attention has been paid to the relationship between abrupt climate changes and heightened fire activity in the paleorecord. We use 35 charcoal and pollen records to assess how fire regimes in North America changed during the last glacial–interglacial transition (15 to 10 ka), a time of large and rapid climate changes. We also test the hypothesis that a comet impact initiated continental-scale wildfires at 12.9 ka; the data do not support this idea, nor are continent-wide fires indicated at any time during deglaciation. There are, however, clear links between large climate changes and fire activity. Biomass burning gradually increased from the glacial period to the beginning of the Younger Dryas. Although there are changes in biomass burning during the Younger Dryas, there is no systematic trend. There is a further increase in biomass burning after the Younger Dryas. Intervals of rapid climate change at 13.9, 13.2, and 11.7 ka are marked by large increases in fire activity. The timing of changes in fire is not coincident with changes in human population density or the timing of the extinction of the megafauna. Although these factors could have contributed to fire-regime changes at individual sites or at specific times, the charcoal data indicate an important role for climate, and particularly rapid climate change, in determining broad-scale levels of fire activity.

Long-term perspective on wildfires in the western USA

Understanding the causes and consequences of wildfires in forests of the western United States requires integrated information about fire, climate changes, and human activity on multiple temporal scales. We use sedimentary charcoal accumulation rates to construct long-term variations in fire during the past 3,000 y in the American West and compare this record to independent fire-history data from historical records and fire scars. There has been a slight decline in burning over the past 3,000 y, with the lowest levels attained during the 20th century and during the Little Ice Age (LIA, ca. 1400–1700 CE [Common Era]). Prominent peaks in forest fires occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (ca. 950–1250 CE) and during the 1800s. Analysis of climate reconstructions beginning from 500 CE and population data show that temperature and drought predict changes in biomass burning up to the late 1800s CE. Since the late 1800s , human activities and the ecological effects of recent high fire activity caused a large, abrupt decline in burning similar to the LIA fire decline. Consequently, there is now a forest “fire deficit” in the western United States attributable to the combined effects of human activities, ecological, and climate changes. Large fires in the late 20th and 21st century fires have begun to address the fire deficit, but it is continuing to grow.

Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes

Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.

Long-term relations among fire, fuel, and climate in the north-western US based on lake-sediment studies

Pollen and high-resolution charcoal records from the north-western USA provide an opportunity to examine the linkages among fire, climate, and fuels on multiple temporal and spatial scales. The data suggest that general charcoal levels were low in the late-glacial period and increased steadily through the last 11 000 years with increasing fuel biomass. At local scales, fire occurrence is governed by the interaction of site controls, including vegetation, local climate and fire weather, and topography. At subregional scales, patterns in the long term fire-episode frequency data are apparent: The Coast Range had relatively few fires in the Holocene, whereas the Klamath–Siskiyou region experienced frequent fire episodes. Fire regimes in the northern Rocky Mountains have been strongly governed by millennial- and centennial-scale climate variability and regional differences in summer moisture. At regional scales, sites in present-day summer-dry areas show a period of protracted high fire activity within the early Holocene that is attributed to intensified summer drought in the summer-dry region. Sites in summer-wet areas show the opposite pattern, that fire was lower in frequency than present in the early Holocene as result of strengthened monsoonal circulation then. Higher fire-episode frequency at many sites in the last 2000 years is attributed to greater drought during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and possibly anthropogenic burning. The association between drought, increased fire occurrence, and available fuels evident on several time scales suggests that long-term fire history patterns should be considered in current assessments of historical fire regimes and fuel conditions.

Climatic control of the biomass-burning decline in the Americas after ad 1500:

The significance and cause of the decline in biomass burning across the Americas after ad 1500 is a topic of considerable debate. We synthesized charcoal records (a proxy for biomass burning) from the Americas and from the remainder of the globe over the past 2000 years, and compared these with paleoclimatic records and population reconstructions. A distinct post-ad 1500 decrease in biomass burning is evident, not only in the Americas, but also globally, and both are similar in duration and timing to ‘Little Ice Age’ climate change. There is temporal and spatial variability in the expression of the biomass-burning decline across the Americas but, at a regional–continental scale, ‘Little Ice Age’ climate change was likely more important than indigenous population collapse in driving this decline.

Holocene vegetation and fire history of the Coast Range, western Oregon, USA

Pollen and high-resolution charcoal records from three lakes were examined to reconstruct the vegetation and fire history of the Oregon Coast Range for the last 9000 years. The sites are located along a north-to-south effective precipitation gradient and changes in vegetation and fire activity provided information on the nature of this gradient in the past. The relation of vegetation to climate change was examined at millennial timescales and the relation between fire and climate was examined on centennial timescales by comparing fire-interval distribution and fire synchrony between sites. The pollen data indicate more fire-adapted vegetation during the early-Holocene period ( c. 9000 to 6700 cal. yr BP), followed by a shift to forests with more fire-sensitive taxa in the mid Holocene (c. 6700 cal. yr BP to 2700 cal. yr BP) and modern forest assemblages developing over the last c. 2700 years. Comparisons of fire-interval distributions showed that the time between fires was similar between two of the three combinations of sites, suggesting that the moisture gradient has played an important role in determining long-term fire frequency. However, century-scale synchrony of fire occurrence between the two sites with the largest difference in effective precipitation suggests that centennial-scale shifts in climate may have overcome the environmental differences between these locations. Asynchrony in fire occurrence between the sites with more similar effective precipitation implies that local conditions may have played an important role in determining fire synchrony between sites with similar long-term climate histories.

The impact of Mt Mazama tephra deposition on forest vegetation in the Central Cascades, Oregon, USA

The eruption of Mt Mazama, c. 7630 yr BP, was the largest North American volcanic event during the Holocene. High-resolution pollen and charcoal analyses were used to examine the impact of Mt Mazama tephra on forest vegetation and possible synergistic interactions with fire activity in the Central Oregon Cascade Range. We selected four small watersheds on a longitudinal transect north of Mt Mazama and recovered lake sediment that spanned the period of tephra deposition. Our sediment records had between 14 and 50 cm of tephra deposited, and we analyzed the sediment at centimeter resolution before and after the deposition horizon in each sediment record. Our analysis shows that nonarboreal pollen percentages and accumulation rates were depressed after Mazama tephra deposition. Recovery to pre-tephra deposition rates occurred after approximately 50–100 years. Arboreal pollen percentage and accumulation rates were less severely impacted, suggesting that the Mazama tephra deposition disrupted understory communities more significantly than overstory species, and that forest communities returned to their pre-tephra-deposition conditions after approximately 50–100 years. Fire events in conjunction with the Mazama tephra occurred in two of the four sites, suggesting that tephra deposition did not create conditions that precipitated a fire event in a consistent way. This research reinforces the notion that disturbance events may have cumulative effects on forest vegetation, but that the impacts of disturbance events need to be felt by similar constituents of the forest ecosystem to be truly additive.