Colin S. Gray

Strategic culture as context: the first generation of theory strikes back

‘Strategic Culture as Context: The First Generation of Theory Strikes Back’ takes the scholarly argument about the study, and meaning, of strategic culture to a new stage. Specifically, this article is a direct reply to recent criticisms of so-called first-generation theorists of strategic culture. The author reconsiders both the subject of strategic culture, and what he first wrote about it fifteen and more years ago. He finds that although there is noteworthy room for improvement in what he wrote then, the recent theorising by Alastair Iain Johnston, in particular, rests upon a misunderstanding of the nature, character, and ‘working’ of strategic culture. Of particular note is the insistence by Johnston on a separation of ideas from behaviour, for the dominant purpose of developing falsifiable theory. ‘Strategic Culture as Context,’ therefore, revisits in some detail questions of definition, with particular reference to the ideas-behaviour nexus. The article proceeds both to register arguments that should advance understanding of how strategic culture ‘works,’ and to suggest a better set of discriminators, different perspectives, for better consideration of evidence of strategic culture. Overall, the article suggests that strategic culture provides context for understanding, rather than explanatory causality for behaviour.

Victory is Possible

Nuclear war is possible. But unlike Armageddon, the apocalyptic war prophesied to end history, nuclear war can have a wide range of possible outcomes. Many commentators and senior US government officials consider it a nonsurvivable event. The popularity of this view in Wasington has such a pervasive and malign effect upon American defense planning that it is rapidly becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy for the United States.

Nuclear Strategy: the Case for a Theory of Victory

Arguments over Salt II will avoid some needed discussion of basic strategies. The author questions the value of arms control negotiations and weapons systems evaluations when there is no firm strategic force posture. He points out that failure to deter attack will leave the country in an acute crisis and the president with the options of surrender or proceeding without a clear strategy. The evolution of pre-war deterrence as a policy of assured destruction is outlined and examined in terms of whether the concept is rational or likely to be effective in the long run. Arguments of the two schools of thought - military equivalency and counter-military targeting - are summarized and, while some advances are noted in recent years, there is still a need to establish stability criteria in US defense planning.

The Arms Race Phenomenon

Since the 1850s there has been intermittent but always renewed interest on the part of politicians, academics, and journalists in the particular aspect of interstate rivalry generally termed an “arms race.” Despite the longevity of concern and the eclecticism of approach, the prime impetus behind the inquiry that has resulted in this article is the sad truth that aside from somewhat banal and highly questionable hypotheses we really know very little about arms race phenomena. This analysis will attempt a systematic investigation of some of the most important aspects of the subject.

A model for the selection of the optimum crane for construction sites

This paper presents a method of locating a crane on a construction site using mathematical techniques. The optimum location and choice of the crane on a site is seen as one of the most important parts of construction planning. It proposes the algorithm which can define the least expensive cranage cost (the total cost of the hire, assembly and dismantling) by calculating the combined use of different cranes, such as truck crane, crawler crane, travelling based tower crane or fixed base tower crane. Conclusions are drawn as to the relevance of the application of the model to construction projects.

‘Intelligent’ construction time and cost analysis

The subject of ‘buildability’ has got to the point where it is known that it is advisable to involve the contractor in the early stages of the design process. However, this is very difficult to achieve unless a contract is formed between the parties, which may not be desirable in that it limits competition. The research described in this paper attempts to resolve this problem by taking the knowledge used by the contractor and making it available to the design team through an Intelligent Knowledge Based System (IKBS). In essence it has meant that a deeper understanding of the methods used by contractors to analyse the problems and risks inherent in a design has to be achieved. The work has generated the first step in this understanding by developing the rules of activity identification, thus enabling models of the construction process to be created for subsequent evaluation.

Out of the Wilderness: Prime Time for Strategic Culture

The defense community finally has accepted that strategic culture is a vitally important concept with significant implications. There are difficulties, however, in finding a methodology to study it and, indeed, in understanding just how it “works.” Scholars cannot even agree on how to define strategic culture, even though, clearly, culture is of the utmost importance. This article addresses the many challenges that accompany the study of culture and warns that it is not a panacea for strategic dilemmas. It also warns that it is possible that the current enthusiasm for cultural study and culturally informed strategic behavior soon will fade.

The Urge to Compete: Rationales for Arms Racing

The contemporary arms-control community was born in the years 1958–1960, but now—thirteen years later—that community has still failed to confront its fundamental subject matter, arms competitions, in any systematic and rigorous fashion. Elsewhere, I have explored definitions, the ways in which an arms race could be analyzed, and arms-race strategies, outcomes, and dynamics. Here, the cartographic exercise is extended so as to provide a systematic discussion of the fundamental question: Why do states race (or renew a race) in armaments?

In Defence of the Heartland: Sir Halford Mackinder and His Critics a Hundred Years On

The British geographer, Sir Halford J. Mackinder, was not the founder of geopolitics, but by a wide margin he was its most profound and influential theorist. Unsurprisingly, his three principal geopolitical analyses—in 1904, 1919, and 1943—reflected the strategic, political, and technological circumstances of their time. That necessary fact notwithstanding, many people may be surprised to learn that in its basic assumptions and general framework of understanding, Sir Halfords theory of geopolitics has been proven by the course of history to be essentially correct. His Pivot-Heartland thesis, which readily accommodates the Rimland focus of the Dutch-American theorist, Nicholas J. Spykman, is as relevant for the twenty-first century as it was for the twentieth. After a hundred years, Mackinders ideas have long outlasted the charges of his critics. The current crop of critics, overdosing on globalization, safely can be predicted to fare no better than did their predecessors.

Perspectives on experiences of innovation: the development of an assessment methodology appropriate to construction project organizations

The UK construction industry is in the process of trying to adopt a new culture based on the large‐scale take up of innovative practices. Through the Demonstration Project process many organizations are implementing changed practices and learning from the experiences of others. This is probably the largest experiment in innovation in any industry in recent times. The long‐term success will be measured by the effectiveness of embedding the new practices in the organization. As yet there is no recognized approach to measuring the receptivity of the organization to the innovation process as an indication of the likelihood of long‐term development. The development of an appropriate approach is described here. Existing approaches to the measurement of the take up of innovation were reviewed and where appropriate used as the base for the development of a questionnaire. The questionnaire could be applicable to multi‐organizational construction project situations such that the output could determine an individual organizations innovative practices via an innovation scorecard, a project teams approach or it could be used to survey a wide cross‐section of the industry.