Consuelo Varela-Ortega

Integrating agricultural policies and water policies under water supply and climate uncertainty

The interactions of water policies and agricultural policies are increasingly determinant for achieving an efficient management of water resources in many countries. In the EU, agricultural and environmental policies are seeking to converge progressively towards mutually compatible objectives and, in this context, the recently reformed Common agricultural Policy (Agenda 2000) and the EU Water Framework Directive constitute the policy framework in which irrigated agriculture and hence water use will evolve. In fact, one of the measures of the European Water Directive is to establish a water pricing policy for improving water use and attaining a more efficient water allocation. The aim of this research is to investigate the irrigators. responses to these changing policy developments in a self-managed irrigation district in Southern Spain. For this purpose, we have developed a stochastic programming model that estimates the farmers. responses to the application of water pricing policies in different agricultural policies scenarios when water availability is subject to varying climate conditions and water storage capacity in the district.s reservoir. Results show that irrigators are price-responsive but a similar water-pricing policy could have distinct effects on water use, farmers. income and collected revenue by the water authority in different agricultural policy options. Water availability is a determinant factor and pricing policies are less effective for reducing water consumption in drought years. Thus, there is a need to integrate the objectives of Water Policies within the objectives of the CAP programs to avoid distortion effects and to seek a synergy between these two policies.

Supporting decision making under uncertainty: Development of a participatory integrated model for water management in the middle Guadiana river basin

Following the Integrated Water Resources Management approach, the European Water Framework Directive demands Member States to develop water management plans at the catchment level. Those plans have to integrate the different interests and must be developed with stakeholder participation. To face these requirements, managers need tools to assess the impacts of possible management alternatives on natural and socio-economic systems. These tools should ideally be able to address the complexity and uncertainties of the water system, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation. The objective of our research was to develop a participatory integrated assessment model, based on the combination of a crop model, an economic model and a participatory Bayesian network, with an application in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, in Spain. The methodology is intended to capture the complexity of water management problems, incorporating the relevant sectors, as well as the relevant scales involved in water management decision making. The integrated model has allowed us testing different management, market and climate change scenarios and assessing the impacts of such scenarios on the natural system (crops), on the socio-economic system (farms) and on the environment (water resources). Finally, this integrated assessment modelling process has allowed stakeholder participation, complying with the main requirements of current European water laws.

Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management under uncertainty: Two comparative case studies in the Guadiana river basin, Spain

A participatory modelling process has been conducted in two areas of the Guadiana river (the upper and the middle sub-basins), in Spain, with the aim of providing support for decision making in the water management field. The area has a semi-arid climate where irrigated agriculture plays a key role in the economic development of the region and accounts for around 90% of water use. Following the guidelines of the European Water Framework Directive, we promote stakeholder involvement in water management with the aim to achieve an improved understanding of the water system and to encourage the exchange of knowledge and views between stakeholders in order to help building a shared vision of the system. At the same time, the resulting models, which integrate the different sectors and views, provide some insight of the impacts that different management options and possible future scenarios could have. The methodology is based on a Bayesian network combined with an economic model and, in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, with a crop model. The resulting integrated modelling framework is used to simulate possible water policy, market and climate scenarios to find out the impacts of those scenarios on farm income and on the environment. At the end of the modelling process, an evaluation questionnaire was filled by participants in both sub-basins. Results show that this type of processes are found very helpful by stakeholders to improve the system understanding, to understand each others views and to reduce conflict when it exists. In addition, they found the model an extremely useful tool to support management. The graphical interface, the quantitative output and the explicit representation of uncertainty helped stakeholders to better understand the implications of the scenario tested. Finally, the combination of different types of models was also found very useful, as it allowed exploring in detail specific aspects of the water management problems.

How can irrigated agriculture adapt to climate change? Insights from the Guadiana Basin in Spain

Climate change is already affecting many natural systems and human environments worldwide, like the semiarid Guadiana Basin in Spain. This paper illustrates a systematic analysis of climate change adaptation in the Guadiana irrigation farming region. The study applies a solution-oriented diagnostic framework structured along a series of sequential analytical steps. An initial stage integrates economic and hydrologic modeling to evaluate the effects of climate change on the agriculture and water sectors. Next, adaptation measures are identified and prioritized through a stakeholder-based multi-criteria analysis. Finally, a social network analysis identifies key actors and their relationships in climate change adaptation. The study shows that under a severe climate change scenario, water availability could be substantially decreased and drought occurrence will augment. In consequence, farmers will adapt their crops to a lesser amount of water and income gains will diminish, particularly for smallholder farms. Among the various adaptation measures considered, those related to private farming (new crop varieties and modern irrigation technologies) are ranked highest, whereas public-funded hard measures (reservoirs) are lowest and public soft measures (insurance) are ranked middle. In addition, stakeholders highlighted that the most relevant criteria for selecting adaptation plans are environmental protection, financial feasibility and employment creation. Nonetheless, the social network analysis evidenced the need to strengthen the links among the different stakeholder groups to facilitate the implementation of adaptation processes. In sum, the diagnostic framework applied in this research can be considered a valuable tool for guiding and supporting decision making in climate change adaptation and communicating scientific results.

Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks for Participatory Water Management: Two Case Studies in Spain

Object-oriented Bayesian networks (OOBNs) have recently been introduced to model water systems that can be represented as repetitive patterns. This paper shows the way in which OOBNs can be used as a groundwater management decision support system in two Spanish case studies. The two areas, in the southern and eastern parts of inland Spain, are characterized by a semiarid climate, water scarcity, and frequent droughts; consequently, the agrarian economy in both cases depends on the provision of irrigation from groundwater sources. Both case studies are illustrative examples of conflict among various water actors, complexity, and uncertainty about the consequences of water management actions. Each study is approached from a different viewpoint: one from an agroeconomic and the other from a hydrogeological perspective. The sites display different degrees of aquifer overexploitation and agrarian profitability. This indicates that, in each case, the effects generated by water management interventions and the t...

Water availability in the Mediterranean region

Nature and agriculture both shape the European countryside and one of the main challenges for the years to come will be to strengthen their interaction for the future development of rural areas. In this valuable and highly topical book, the authors demonstrate how economics and ecology can play a critical role in maintaining and sustaining this relationship. The book identifies the dilemmas facing European agriculture and explores their economic and ecological consequences. The authors believe a better understanding of these problems will be crucial in recognising the potential options for the future role of agriculture and nature policy and will guide the identification of suitable policy instruments.

Data and Limitations

The purpose of this chapter is to provide a detailed description of data sources and the limitations of the study based on these data.

A stakeholder-based assessment of barriers to climate change adaptation in a water-scarce basin in Spain

In the last decade, increasing evidence of climate change fostered the development of multiple initiatives for adaptation. However, there are few examples in which adaptation has been successfully implemented, evidencing the need for improving understanding about the socio-institutional context of adaptation processes and the underlying causes of barriers to adaptation. In this research, we developed a stakeholder-based assessment of barriers to the adoption of climate adaptation options for irrigation in the Guadiana basin, one of Spain’s most climate-vulnerable basins. Based on social network mapping, we elicited potential barriers to adaptation in the water sector. Using stakeholder questionnaires, we assessed the impact of the identified barriers on the implementation of selected adaptation measures. Results highlight the low acceptance of planned adaptation by stakeholders, and the lack of awareness and of a common understanding among the different actors as preeminent barriers to adaptation, potentially caused by insufficient interactions between water users, the scientific community and environmental groups. The role of the government as a catalyst of those interactions can be crucial for overcoming those barriers. Acknowledged water management instruments, such as water tariffs and quotas, may face the greatest barriers, while widely accepted adaptation measures, such as irrigation modernisation, can contribute to overcoming the obstacles for the implementation of more controversial measures. Overall, the results of this research contribute to climate change adaptation providing a better understanding of the social dimension of adaptation processes, potential barriers to overcome and the feasibility of specific measures.

Analysing Latin American and Caribbean forest vulnerability from socio-economic factors

Abstract Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) forest cover reduced by 9% from 1990 to 2015, affecting biodiversity, climate change mitigation and ecosystem service functionality. These losses are caused by a myriad of interconnected, interdependent and often socio-economic processes, which forest vulnerability metrics largely ignore in their assessments. To address this, we develop the Deforestation Vulnerability Index (DVI) to identify spatial and temporal patterns of forest vulnerability from socio-economic processes. Composed of 13 socio-economic indicators, the DVI was applied to 24 LAC countries, and three provincial (sub-national) examples for the period 2000–2010. The DVI showed that vulnerability declined in more than 60% of countries, due to governance improvements and reductions in agricultural expansion. Provincial application of the index showed provinces to be more vulnerable than countries, due largely to higher economic dependence upon agriculture. Observed vulnerability reductions, whilst deforestation continues, may demonstrate a lag between socio-economic improvements and subsequent deforestation reductions, or the effects of omitted or unidentified vulnerability indicators. The DVI represents a simple, yet effective tool whose outputs could be used by policy-makers and stakeholders to source vulnerability at the scale of application, whilst assisting in directing reactive and responsive sustainable forest management strategies and decision-making.

Bringing the Analysis to the Policy Context

This chapter attempts to bring the evaluations reported in Chaps. 5 and 6 to the policy context, by looking at economic performance, variations and causal relationships associated with agricultural and water policies. We start by reviewing changes in land productivity, both rainfed and irrigated, from a temporal and spatial perspective. Since agricultural policies are markedly different across Spanish provinces, and since the EU Common Agricultural Policy also changed over the 1996–2006 study period, our spatial and temporal analysis yields conclusions about how Spanish agriculture has changed, notably in irrigated vs. rainfed farming, with profound impacts on the patterns of water use in agriculture. In the second section, we offer a dynamic analysis of the economic incentives for inter-basin and intra-basin surface transfers, with water scarcity being the major driving force. Water allocation and economic efficiency across regions and basins are the main focus of this section.