Corinna Strupp

Time-Dependent Prognostic Scoring System for Predicting Survival and Leukemic Evolution in Myelodysplastic Syndromes

PURPOSE The aims of this study were to identify the most significant prognostic factors in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) taking into account both their values at clinical onset and their changes in time and to develop a dynamic model for predicting survival and leukemic evolution that can be applied at any time during the course of the disease. PATIENTS AND METHODS We studied a learning cohort of 426 MDS patients diagnosed at the Department of Hematology, San Matteo Hospital, Pavia, Italy, between 1992 and 2004, and a validation cohort of 739 patients diagnosed at the Heinrich-Heine-University Hospital, Düsseldorf, Germany, between 1982 and 2003. All patients were reclassified according to WHO criteria. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed using Cox models with time-dependent covariates. RESULTS The most important variables for the prognostic model were WHO subgroups, karyotype, and transfusion requirement. We defined a WHO classification-based prognostic scoring system (WPSS) that was able to classify patients into five risk groups showing different survivals (median survival from 12 to 103 months) and probabilities of leukemic evolution (P < .001). WPSS was shown to predict survival and leukemia progression at any time during follow-up (P < .001), and its prognostic value was confirmed in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION WPSS is a dynamic prognostic scoring system that provides an accurate prediction of survival and risk of leukemic evolution in MDS patients at any time during the course of their disease. This time-dependent system seems particularly useful in lower risk patients and may be used for implementing risk-adapted treatment strategies.

Validation of the WHO proposals for a new classification of primary myelodysplastic syndromes: a retrospective analysis of 1600 patients

In 1982, the French-American-British (FAB) cooperative group proposed a classification of myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) based on morphological features in blood and bone marrow, namely on medullary and peripheral blast count, Auer rods, ring sideroblasts and the number of monocytes in the peripheral blood. This classification has been used for numerous studies regarding morphology, prognosis and treatment of MDS. Some details of this morphological classification remained unclear, and some patients were unclassifiable. A working group of the World Health Organization (WHO) recently proposed a new classification of MDS, based on a significant modification of the original FAB proposals. CMML and RAEB-T were removed from the MDS classification and RAEB was split into two groups with medullary blast counts below and above 10%. In addition, a group of patients with less than 5% medullary blasts but evidence of multilineage dysplasia was defined. MDS patients with 5q- as the sole chromosomal anomaly were also considered a separate group. The aim of the present study was to validate the new classification with respect to prognostic importance, and to correlate it with cytogenetic and hematological features in a large series of patients (n=1600) with a long-term follow up. We were able to confirm a significant difference in prognosis between RAEB I and RAEB II, as well as a difference between refractory anemia and multilineage dysplasia. Furthermore, patients with 5q- anomaly had a much better prognosis than other WHO subtypes, but this was only true for patients with a medullary blast count below 5%. In summary, the WHO classification appears to define morphological subgroups that are more homogeneous with respect to prognosis than the FAB subtypes.

Impact of the degree of anemia on the outcome of patients with myelodysplastic syndrome and its integration into the WHO classification-based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS)

Background Anemia is an established negative prognostic factor in myelodysplastic syndromes but the relationship between its degree and clinical outcome is poorly defined. We, therefore, studied the relationship between severity of anemia and outcome in myelodysplastic syndrome patients. Design and Methods We studied 840 consecutive patients diagnosed with myelodysplastic syndromes at the Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Italy, and 504 patients seen at the Heinrich-Heine-University Hospital, Düsseldorf, Germany. Hemoglobin levels were monitored longitudinally and analyzed by means of time-dependent Cox’s proportional hazards regression models. Results Hemoglobin levels lower than 9 g/dL in males (HR 5.56, P=0.018) and 8 g/dL in females (HR=5.35, P=0.026) were independently related to reduced overall survival, higher risk of non-leukemic death and cardiac death (P<0.001). Severe anemia, defined as hemoglobin below these thresholds, was found to be as effective as transfusion-dependency in the prognostic assessment. After integrating this definition of severe anemia into the WHO classification-based Prognostic Scoring System, time-dependent regression and landmark analyses showed that the refined model was able to identify risk groups with different survivals at any time during follow up. Conclusions Accounting for severity of anemia through the WHO classification-based Prognostic Scoring System provides an objective criterion for prognostic assessment and implementation of risk-adapted treatment strategies in myelodysplastic syndrome patients.

Risk stratification based on both disease status and extra-hematologic comorbidities in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome

The incidence of myelodysplastic syndromes increases with age and a high prevalence of co-morbid conditions has been reported in these patients. So far, risk assessment in myelodysplastic syndromes has been mainly based on disease status. We studied the prognostic impact of comorbidity on the natural history of myelodysplastic syndrome with the aim of developing novel tools for risk assessment. The study population included a learning cohort of 840 patients diagnosed with myelodysplastic syndrome in Pavia, Italy, and a validation cohort of 504 patients followed in Duesseldorf, Germany. Information on comorbidity was extracted from detailed review of the patients’ medical charts and laboratory values at diagnosis and during the course of the disease. Univariable and multivariable survival analyses with both fixed and time-dependent covariates were performed using Cox’s proportional hazards regression models. Comorbidity was present in 54% of patients in the learning cohort. Cardiac disease was the most frequent comorbidity and the main cause of non-leukemic death. In multivariable analysis, comorbidity had a significant impact on both non-leukemic death (P=0.01) and overall survival (P=0.02). Cardiac, liver, renal, pulmonary disease and solid tumors were found to independently affect the risk of non-leukemic death. A time-dependent myelodysplastic syndrome-specific comorbidity index (MDS-CI) was developed for predicting the effect of comorbidity on outcome. This identified three groups of patients which showed significantly different probabilities of non-leukemic death (P<0.001) and survival (P=0.005) also in the validation cohort. Landmark survival analyses at fixed time points from diagnosis showed that the MDS-CI can better define the life expectancy of patients with myelodysplastic syndrome stratified according to the WHO-classification based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS).Comorbidities have a significant impact on the outcome of patients with myelodysplastic syndrome. Accounting for both disease status by means of the WPSS and comorbidity through the MDS-CI considerably improves risk stratification in myelodysplastic syndromes.

Results of a phase 2 study of valproic acid alone or in combination with all-trans retinoic acid in 75 patients with myelodysplastic syndrome and relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia

Valproic acid (VPA) inhibits histone deacetylase activity and induces differentiation of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) blasts in vitro. We observed clinical responses to VPA in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) and AML. Here, we report follow-up data on 75 patients. Of these, 66 were started on VPA monotherapy, with later addition of all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) in patients who did not respond or relapsed. Nine patients were treated with VPA + ATRA from the start. Median treatment duration was 4 months for VPA and 2 months for ATRA. Hematological improvement, according to international working group criteria for MDS, was observed in 18 patients (24%). Median response duration was 4 months. ATRA exerted no additional effect in patients receiving the combination from the start or benefited primary VPA nonresponders. However, of ten VPA responders who relapsed, four achieved a second response after addition of ATRA. Response rates were strongly dependent on disease type according to WHO classification. We found a response rate of 52% in MDS patients with a normal blast count (refractory sideroblastic anemia, refractory cytopenia with multilineage dysplasia, and refractory sideroblastic cytopenia with multilineage dysplasia). The response rate was 6% in refractory anemia with excess blasts (I + II), 16% in AML, and 0% in chronic myelomonocytic leukemia. Bone marrow blast count was the only variable that predicted responses. We conclude that VPA is clinically useful in low-risk MDS. For patients with high-risk MDS, VPA may be combined with chemotherapy or demethylating drugs. If patients relapse after an initial response to VPA, ATRA has the potential to induce a prolonged second response.

Novel TET2 Mutations Associated With UPD4q24 in Myelodysplastic Syndrome

PURPOSE Cryptic chromosomal aberrations, such as regions of uniparental disomy (UPD), have been shown to harbor homozygous mutations and are a common feature in myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). We investigated the sequence integrity of 4q24 candidate tumor suppressor gene TET2 in MDS patients with UPD on chromosome 4. PATIENTS AND METHODS The coding exons of TET2 were analyzed by 454 deep sequencing and Sanger sequencing in nine patients with UPD on 4q. Four patients had refractory cytopenia with multilineage dysplasia and ringed sideroblasts (RCMD-RS) and UPD4q24, and five patients (refractory anemia with excess blasts-II, n = 1; 5q- syndrome, n = 1; RCMD-RS, n = 1; refractory anemia, n = 1; refractory cytopenia with multilineage dysplasia, n = 1) had no UPD4q24. RESULTS Mutations on TET2 were identified in all four patients with UPD4q24. These were localized to exons 3, 6, and 9 and resulted in two premature stop codons, one frameshift mutation, and one cysteine to glycine amino acid change. Mutant clone size varied between 30% and 85%. One patient with UPD outside of q24 (UPD4q28.3) displayed additional TET2 mutations, but these were at low clonal levels (13%, 4%, and 4% for a silent mutation, a 180-base pair deletion in exon 3, and a lysine to phenylalanine substitution in exon 11, respectively). The other patients who did not have UPD4q24 did not have verifiable TET2 mutations. CONCLUSION Our data identify novel TET2 mutations in a dominant clone in patients with UPD4q24. The presence of UPD4q24 and mutations in RCMD-RS patients may suggest specificity to this subtype. Our preliminary results need to be confirmed in a large cohort of all MDS subtypes.

Incidence and prevalence of myelodysplastic syndromes: Data from the Düsseldorf MDS-registry

Population-based data on patients with MDS are scarce. Here we report the incidence and prevalence of MDS based on data from the Düsseldorf MDS Registry. Cases in the city of Düsseldorf in the study period were identified from the MDS Registry. We calculated crude, calendar-year, age- and sex-specific and European Standard Population age-standardized incidence rates as well as point prevalences per 100,000 The crude incidence rate was 4.15/100,000/year and the point prevalence per 100,000 persons of 7. We found that the incidence and prevalence of MDS was higher in men than women and increased sharply with increasing age.

Improved survival in MDS patients receiving iron chelation therapy – A matched pair analysis of 188 patients from the Düsseldorf MDS registry

MDS patients are prone to develop transfusional iron overload. Iron overload may partly explain why transfusion dependency is associated with a decreased likelihood of survival. Our matched-pair analysis included 94 patients on long-term chelation therapy and 94 matched patients without it. All patients had iron overload, defined as serum ferritin (SF) above 1000 ng/ml or a history of multiple transfusions and SF ≥ 500 ng/ml. Median SF was 1954 ng/ml in chelated and 875 ng/ml in non-chelated patients. The difference in median survival (74 vs. 49 months, respectively; p=0.002) supports the idea that iron chelation therapy is beneficial for MDS patients.

The hematopoietic stem cell transplantation comorbidity index is of prognostic relevance for patients with myelodysplastic syndrome

So far, prognostic evaluation of patients with myelodysplastic syndrome has mainly been based on disease-related parameters like cytopenias, karyotype, or percentage of blast cells in the bone marrow. Patients’ characteristics reflecting comorbidities like cardiovascular diseases and impaired renal or liver function were not taken into account. In this study, the authors found that the Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Comorbidity Index (HCTCI) may be useful for patients with myelodysplastic syndrome receiving best supportive care only. See perspective article on page 602. We studied the impact of comorbidities on survival and evaluated the prognostic utility of comorbidity scores in MDS patients, who received best supportive care and were assessable according to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation Comorbidity Index (HCTCI): 171 patients were identified in the Duesseldorf MDS Registry. The HCTCI captured more comorbidities. Both scoring systems had prognostic relevance, but the HCTCI more clearly distinguished between low-, intermediate- and high-risk patients. Median survival times of the different risk groups according to the HCTCI were 68, 34 and 25 months, respectively. The HCTCI showed prognostic impact in the IPSS intermediate- and high-risk group. On multivariate regression analysis, only the HCTCI remained a prognostic factor independent of IPSS. Considering their prognostic impact, comorbidities of MDS patients should receive appropriate attention in clinical trials as well as day-to-day clinical decision making.

Myelodysplastic Syndromes in Patients Younger Than Age 50

PURPOSE Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) mainly occur in the elderly but can affect younger individuals too. The latter require special consideration to identify suitable candidates for allogeneic stem-cell transplantation, a potentially curative approach carrying a high risk of treatment-related complications. PATIENTS AND METHODS We report the largest series of young MDS patients as yet, including 232 patients younger than 50 years. Their clinical characteristics and prognosis are compared with 2,496 patients older than 50 years. RESULTS Survival was significantly longer in the younger versus older age group (40 v 23 months, respectively; P < .00005). The difference arose from patients belonging to the low- and intermediate-I-risk categories of the International Prognostic Scoring System (median survival not reached v 45 months, respectively; P < .00005). In contrast, survival was identical for both age groups (8 months for both younger and older patients; P = .81) in the intermediate-II-and high-risk categories. Established classification systems and risk scores were applicable to young patients with primary MDS. Interestingly, a particularly large difference in median survival time was seen between the intermediate-I-and intermediate-II-risk groups (176 v 8 months, respectively). For low-risk patients, the overall survival rate was more than 86% at 20 years. CONCLUSION According to these results, aggressive treatment approaches should rarely be recommended to younger MDS patients belonging to the low and intermediate-I risk groups.