Corinne Le Quéré

Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions

CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning and industrial processes have been accelerating at a global scale, with their growth rate increasing from 1.1% y−1 for 1990–1999 to >3% y−1 for 2000–2004. The emissions growth rate since 2000 was greater than for the most fossil-fuel intensive of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios developed in the late 1990s. Global emissions growth since 2000 was driven by a cessation or reversal of earlier declining trends in the energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) (energy/GDP) and the carbon intensity of energy (emissions/energy), coupled with continuing increases in population and per-capita GDP. Nearly constant or slightly increasing trends in the carbon intensity of energy have been recently observed in both developed and developing regions. No region is decarbonizing its energy supply. The growth rate in emissions is strongest in rapidly developing economies, particularly China. Together, the developing and least-developed economies (forming 80% of the worlds population) accounted for 73% of global emissions growth in 2004 but only 41% of global emissions and only 23% of global cumulative emissions since the mid-18th century. The results have implications for global equity.

Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 Sink Due to Recent Climate Change

Based on observed atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and an inverse method, we estimate that the Southern Ocean sink of CO2 has weakened between 1981 and 2004 by 0.08 petagrams of carbon per year per decade relative to the trend expected from the large increase in atmospheric CO2. We attribute this weakening to the observed increase in Southern Ocean winds resulting from human activities, which is projected to continue in the future. Consequences include a reduction of the efficiency of the Southern Ocean sink of CO2 in the short term (about 25 years) and possibly a higher level of stabilization of atmospheric CO2 on a multicentury time scale.

Three decades of global methane sources and sinks

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, responsible for about 20% of the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times. By reacting with hydroxyl radicals, methane reduces the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and generates ozone in the troposphere. Although most sources and sinks of methane have been identified, their relative contributions to atmospheric methane levels are highly uncertain. As such, the factors responsible for the observed stabilization of atmospheric methane levels in the early 2000s, and the renewed rise after 2006, remain unclear. Here, we construct decadal budgets for methane sources and sinks between 1980 and 2010, using a combination of atmospheric measurements and results from chemical transport models, ecosystem models, climate chemistry models and inventories of anthropogenic emissions. The resultant budgets suggest that data-driven approaches and ecosystem models overestimate total natural emissions. We build three contrasting emission scenarios-which differ in fossil fuel and microbial emissions-to explain the decadal variability in atmospheric methane levels detected, here and in previous studies, since 1985. Although uncertainties in emission trends do not allow definitive conclusions to be drawn, we show that the observed stabilization of methane levels between 1999 and 2006 can potentially be explained by decreasing-to-stable fossil fuel emissions, combined with stable-to-increasing microbial emissions. We show that a rise in natural wetland emissions and fossil fuel emissions probably accounts for the renewed increase in global methane levels after 2006, although the relative contribution of these two sources remains uncertain.

The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C

The latest carbon dioxide emissions continue to track the high end of emission scenarios, making it even less likely global warming will stay below 2 °C. A shift to a 2 °C pathway requires immediate significant and sustained global mitigation, with a probable reliance on net negative emissions in the longer term.

Estimates of anthropogenic carbon uptake from four three-dimensional global ocean models

We have compared simulations of anthropogenic CO2 in the four three-dimensional ocean models that participated in the first phase of the Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP), as a means to identify their major differences. Simulated global uptake agrees to within ±19%, giving a range of 1.85±0.35 Pg C yr−1 for the 1980–1989 average. Regionally, the Southern Ocean dominates the present-day air-sea flux of anthropogenic CO2 in all models, with one third to one half of the global uptake occurring south of 30°S. The highest simulated total uptake in the Southern Ocean was 70% larger than the lowest. Comparison with recent data-based estimates of anthropogenic CO2 suggest that most of the models substantially overestimate storage in the Southern Ocean; elsewhere they generally underestimate storage by less than 20%. Globally, the OCMIP models appear to bracket the real oceans present uptake, based on comparison of regional data-based estimates of anthropogenic CO2 and bomb 14C. Column inventories of bomb 14C have become more similar to those for anthropogenic CO2 with the time that has elapsed between the Geochemical Ocean Sections Study (1970s) and World Ocean Circulation Experiment (1990s) global sampling campaigns. Our ability to evaluate simulated anthropogenic CO2 would improve if systematic errors associated with the data-based estimates could be provided regionally.

Oceanic Carbon Dioxide Uptake in a Model of Century-Scale Global Warming

In a model of ocean-atmosphere interaction that excluded biological processes, the oceanic uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) was substantially reduced in scenarios involving global warming relative to control scenarios. The primary reason for the reduced uptake was the weakening or collapse of the ocean thermohaline circulation. Such a large reduction in this ocean uptake would have a major impact on the future growth rate of atmospheric CO2. Model simulations that include a simple representation of biological processes show a potentially large offsetting effect resulting from the downward flux of biogenic carbon. However, the magnitude of the offset is difficult to quantify with present knowledge.

Dust impact on marine biota and atmospheric CO2 during glacial periods

We assess the impact of high dust deposition rates on marine biota and atmospheric CO2 using a state-of-the-art ocean biogeochemistry model and observations. Our model includes an explicit representation of two groups of phytoplankton and colimitation by iron, silicate, and phosphate. When high dust deposition rates from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are used as input, our model shows an increase in the relative abundance of diatoms in todays iron-limited regions, causing a global increase in export production by 6% and an atmospheric CO2 drawdown of 15 ppm. When the combined effects of changes in dust, temperature, ice cover, and circulation are included, the model reproduces roughly our reconstruction of regional changes in export production during the LGM based on several paleoceanographic indicators. In particular, the model reproduces the latitudinal dipole in the Southern Ocean, driven in our simulations by the conjunction of dust, sea ice, and circulation changes. In the North Pacific the limited open ocean data suggest that we correctly simulate the eastwest gradient in the open ocean, but more data are needed to confirm this result. From our model-data comparison and from the timing of the dust record at Vostok, we argue that our model estimate of the role of dust is realistic and that the maximum impact of high dust deposition on atmospheric CO2 must be

Interannual variability of the oceanic sink of CO2 from 1979 through 1997

We have estimated the interannual variability in the oceanic sink of CO2 with a three-dimensional global-scale model which includes ocean circulation and simple biogeochemistry. The model was forced from 1979 to 1997 by a combination of daily to weekly data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis as well as European Remote Sensing satellite observations. For this period, the ocean sink of CO2 is estimated to vary between 1.4 and 2.2 Pg C yr?1, as a result of annually averaged interannual variability of ±0.4 Pg C yr?1 that fluctuates about a mean of 1.8 Pg C yr?1. Our interannual variability roughly agrees in amplitude with previous ocean-based estimates but is 2 to 4 times less than estimates based on atmospheric observations. About 70% of the global variance in our modeled flux of CO2 originated in the equatorial Pacific. In that region, our modeled variability in the flux of CO2 generally agreed with that observed to ±0.1 Pg C yr?1. The predominance of the equatorial Pacific for interannual variability is caused by three factors: (1) interannual variability associated with El Nino events occurs in phase over the entire basin, whereas elsewhere positive and negative anomalies partly cancel each other out (e.g., for events such as Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and the North Atlantic Oscillation); (2) dynamic processes dominate in the equatorial Pacific, whereas dynamic, thermodynamic, and biological processes partly cancel one another at higher latitudes; and (3) our model underestimates the variability in ocean dynamics and biology at high latitudes.

Biogeochemical fluxes through mesozooplankton

Mesozooplankton are significant consumers of phytoplankton, and have a significant impact on the oceanic biogeochemical cycles of carbon and other elements. Their contribution to vertical particle flux is much larger than that of microzooplankton, yet most global biogeochemical models have lumped these two plankton functional types together. In this paper we bring together several newly available data syntheses on observed mesozooplankton concentration and the biogeochemical fluxes they mediate, and perform data synthesis on flux rates for which no synthesis was available. We update the equations of a global biogeochemical model with an explicit representation of mesozooplankton (PISCES). We use the rate measurements to constrain the parameters of mesozooplankton, and evaluate the model results with our independent synthesis of mesozooplankton concentration measurements. We also perform a sensitivity study to analyze the impact of uncertainty in the flux rates. The standard model run was parameterized on the basis of the data synthesis of flux rates. The results of mesozooplankton concentration in the standard run are slightly lower than the independent databases of observed mesozooplankton concentrations, but not significantly. This shows that structuring and parameterizing biogeochemical models on the basis of observations without tuning is a strategy that works. The sensitivity study showed that by using a maximum grazing rate of mesozooplankton that is only 30% higher than the poorly constrained fit to the observations, the model mesozooplankton concentration gets closer to the observations, but mesozooplankton grazing becomes higher than what is currently accounted for. This is an indication that food selection by mesozooplankton is not sufficiently quantified at present. Despite the amount of effort that is represented by the data syntheses of all relevant processes, the good results that were obtained for mesozooplankton indicate that this effort needs to be applied to all components of marine biogeochemistry. The development of ecosystem models that better represent key plankton groups and that are more closely based on observations should lead to better understanding and quantification of the feedbacks between marine ecosystems and climate.

Impact of climate change and variability on the global oceanic sink of CO2

About one quarter of the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere by human activities is absorbed annually by the ocean. All the processes that influence the oceanic uptake of CO2 are controlled by climate. Hence changes in climate (both natural and human-induced) are expected to alter the uptake of CO2 by the ocean. However, available information that constrains the direction, magnitude, or rapidity of the response of ocean CO2 to changes in climate is limited. We present an analysis of oceanic CO2 trends for 1981 to 2007 from data and a model. Our analysis suggests that the global ocean responded to recent changes in climate by outgassing some preindustrial carbon, in part compensating the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2. Using a model, we estimate that climate change and variability reduced the CO2 uptake by 12% compared to a simulation where constant climate is imposed, and offset 63% of the trend in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 alone. The response is caused by changes in wind patterns and ocean warming, with important nonlinear effects that amplify the response of oceanic CO2 to changes in climate by > 30%.