Courtney Coile

FUTURE SOCIAL SECURITY ENTITLEMENTS AND THE RETIREMENT DECISION

A critical question for Social Security policy is how program incentives affect retirement behavior. We use the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) to examine the impact of Social Security incentives on male retirement. We implement forward-looking models whereby individuals consider the incentives to work in all future years. We find that forward-looking incentive measures for Social Security are significant determinants of retirement. We also find that private pension incentives have roughly similar effects. Our findings suggest that Social Security policies that increase the incentives to work at older ages can significantly reduce the labor force exit rate of older workers.

The Market Crash and Mass Layoffs: How the Current Economic Crisis May Affect Retirement

Abstract Recent dramatic declines in U.S. stock and housing markets have led to widespread speculation that shrinking retirement accounts and falling home equity will lead workers to delay retirement. Yet the weakness in the labor market and its impact on retirement are often overlooked. If older job seekers have difficulty finding work, they may retire earlier than expected. The net effect of the current economic crisis on retirement is thus far from clear. In this paper, we use 30 years of data from the March Current Population Survey to estimate models relating retirement decisions to fluctuations in equity, housing, and labor markets. We find that workers age 62 to 69 are responsive to the unemployment rate and to long-run fluctuations in stock market returns. Less-educated workers are more sensitive to labor market conditions and more-educated workers are more sensitive to stock market conditions. We find no evidence that workers age 55 to 61 respond to these fluctuations or that workers at any age respond to fluctuating housing markets. On net, we predict that the increase in retirement attributable to the rising unemployment rate will be almost 50 percent larger than the decrease in retirement brought about by the stock market crash.

Economic Determinants of Workers’ Retirement Decisions

The landscape for older workers has changed dramatically in recent decades. Governments have made cuts to public pension programs, private pensions have shifted from defined benefit to defined contribution plans, equity and housing markets have been unusually volatile, and workers have experienced declining morbidity and mortality. At the same time, the labor force participation rate for older men and women has been rising over the past two decades, implying later retirement. Are these phenomena related? This paper reviews the large and growing body of literature exploring the economic determinants of workers’ retirement decisions, including public and private pensions, wealth and savings, health and health insurance, and labor demand.

Retirement, Economics of

Abstract This article summarizes theory and evidence regarding the economics of retirement, a field that has experienced a surge of new research during the past two decades, due in part to the availability of new longitudinal data. Topics reviewed include the definition of retirement, retirement trends and patterns, and economic factors affecting retirement, including public and private pensions, wealth and savings, health and health insurance, and labor demand. The findings on these topics will be of use to policy makers around the world as they confront the opportunities and challenges posed by an aging population.