David A. Wise

College Choice in America

The most crucial choice a high school graduate makes is whether to attend college or to go to work. Here is the most sophisticated study of the complexities behind that decision. Based on a unique data set of nearly 23,000 seniors from more than 1,300 high schools who were tracked over several years, the book treats the following questions in detail: Who goes to college? Does low family income prevent some young people from enrolling, or does scholarship aid offset financial need? How important are scholastic aptitude scores, high school class rank, race, and socioeconomic background in determining college applications and admissions? Do test scores predict success in higher education? Using the data from the National Longitudinal Study of the Class of 1972, the authors present a set of interrelated analyses of student and institutional behavior, each focused on a particular aspect of the process of choosing and being chosen by a college. Among their interesting findings: most high school graduates would be admitted to some four-year college of average quality, were they to apply; applicants do not necessarily prefer the highest-quality school; high school class rank and SAT scores are equally important in college admissions; federal scholarship aid has had only a small effect on enrollments at four-year colleges but a much stronger effect on attendance at two-year colleges; the attention paid to SAT scores in admissions is commensurate with the power of the scores in predicting persistence to a degree. This clearly written book is an important source of information on a perpetually interesting topic.

A CONDITIONAL PROBIT MODEL FOR QUALITATIVE CHOICE: DISCRETE DECISIONS RECOGNIZING INTERDEPENDENCE AND HETEROGENEOUS PREFERENCES'

An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Third World Congress of the Econometric Society, August, 1975

Price Differences in almost Competitive Markets

I. Introduction, 189.—II. Equilibria in models without learning—the case of knowledge, 191.—III. Equilibrium in models with learning, 196.—IV. Empirically observed distributions of prices quoted by different sellers, 204.—V. Qualifications, implications, and conclusions, 205.

Do 401(k) contributions crowd out other personal saving

During the late 1980s. contributions to 401(k) plans eclipsed contributions to Individual Retirement Accounts as the leading form of tax-deferred individual retirement saving. This paper uses data from the 1984. 1987. and 1991 Surveys of Income and Program Participation to describe patterns of participation in and contributions to 401(k) plans. and to evaluate the net impact of these contributions on personal saving. We find that 401(k) participation conditional on eligibility exceeds sixty percent at all income levels. This pattern contrasts with Individual Retirement Accounts in the early 1980s. which exhibited a sharply rising profile of participation across income groups. We study the net effect of 401(k) contributions on personal saving by comparing the growth of non-401(k) assets for contributors and noncontributors. and by comparing the level of wealth for families who are eligible for 401(k)s with that of those who are not. We find little evidence that 401(k) contributions substitute for other forms of private saving. We also explore the substitutability of 401(k) contributions for IRA contributions. and revisit the question of whether IRAs substitute for other types of saving. Our findings suggest little substitution on either margin.

New Evidence on the Economic Determinants of Postsecondary Schooling Choices

The effects of tuition costs, financial aid, and individual attributes on college choice are analyzed using a conditional logit model. The results confirm that financial aid can be an important determinant of postsecondary school attendance and that individual academic ability relative to the academic standards of a college is an important determinant of which of available college alternatives is chosen.

Tax-Deferred Accounts, Constrained Choice and Estimation of Individual Saving

The paper analyzes the effect of tax-deferred individual retirement accounts (IRAs) in the United States on net individual saving. The results are based on a model of constrained optimization with the limit on tax-deferred saving the principle constraint. The estimates suggest that contributions to IRAs represent substantial net saving increases. Were the IRA limit to be increased, only about 10 to 20% of resulting increase in IRA contributions would be taken from other savings. About 50% would come from reduced consumption and about 35% from reduced taxes.

Retirement against the demographic trend: more older people living longer, working less, and saving less.

The American population is aging rapidly and individuals are living longer. Yet Americans are saving less and older workers are leaving the labor force at younger and younger ages. The accelerated drop in labor force participation corresponds roughly to the introduction of Social Security and the adaption of employer-provided pension plans. I have illustrated that Social Security and employer-provided pension plans provide substantial incentive to leave the labor force early. The quantitative effect of this inducement is illustrated by simulating the effects of changes in pension plan and Social Security provisions on the retirement decisions of employees in a large firm, who are covered by a typical defined benefit pension plan. Scheduled Social Security changes would have little effect on the retirement decisions of employees with a typical defined benefit pension plan like the one considered here. But if the pension plan provisions were changed to correspond to the Social Security changes, the effect would be very large. And, although not contemplated by current legislation, it is clear that an increase in the Social Security early retirement age would have a substantial effect on the early retirement rates of the large number of employees not covered by a pension plan.

The Effects of the Minimum Wage on the Employment and Earnings of Youth

The employment and earnings effects of the minimum wage are estimated by parameterizing a hypothesized relationship between underlying market employment and wage relationships versus observed wage and employment distributions in the presence of a legislated minimum. If there had been no minimum during the 1973-78 period, we estimate that employment among out-of-school men 16-24 would have been approximately 4% higher than it was. Among young men 16-19 employment would have been about 7% higher; among those 20-24, 2% higher. Employment among black youth 16-24 would have been almost 6% higher than it was, compared with somewhat less than 4% for white youth. Although it is sometimes argued that the adverse employment effects of the minimum are offset by increased earnings, we find virtually no earnings effect. Had the minimum not been raised over the 1973-78 period, inflation would have greatly moderated the adverse employment effects of the minimum, with approximately two-thirds of the potential employment gains from elimination of the minimum attained. The weight of our evidence is inconsistent with a general increase in youth wage rates with increases in the real minimum. Our findings support the hypothesis that the effects of the minimum are concentrated on youth with subminimum market wage rates.

Individual attributes and self-selection of higher education: College attendance versus college completion

Abstract We have estimated a joint discrete-continuous utility maximization model of college attendance and college completion. Special attention is given to the possibility that test scores and other individual attributes are poor predictors of who will succeed in college and thus may not promote optimal investment decisions and may indeed unjustly limit the educational opportunities of some youth. We find that: (1) College attendance decisions are strongly commensurate with college completion. Persons who are unlikely to attend college would be very likely to drop out of even their ‘first-choice’ colleges, were they to attend. College human capital investment decisions are strongly mirrored by the likelihood that they will pay off. (2) Contrary to much of the recent criticism of the predictive validity of test scores, we find that their informational content is substantial. After controlling for high school class rank, for example, the probability of dropping out of the first-choice college varies greatly with SAT scores. (3) Individual self-selection, related to both measured and unmeasured attributes, is the dominant determinant of college attendance.

Have IRAs Increased U. S. Saving?: Evidence from Consumer Expenditure Surveys

The vast majority of Individual Retirement Account contributions represent net new saving, based on evidence from the quarterly Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CES). The results are based on analysis of the relationship between IRA contributions and other financial asset saving. The data show almost no substitution of IRAs for other saving. While the core of the paper is based on cross-section analysis, important use is made of the CES panel of independent cross-sections that span the period during which IRAs were introduced. Estimates for the post 1982 period, when IRAs were available to all employees, are based on a flexible constrained optimization model, with the IRA limit the principle constraint. The implications of this model for saving in the absence of the IRA option match very closely the actual non-IRA financial asset saving behavior prior to 1982. IRA saving does not show up as other financial asset saving in the pre-IRA period.