Craig Meisner

The Economics of Renewable Energy Expansion in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa

Accelerating development in Sub-Saharan Africa will require massive expansion of access to electricity -- currently reaching only about one-third of households. This paper explores how essential economic development might be reconciled with the need to keep carbon emissions in check. The authors develop a geographically explicit framework and use spatial modeling and cost estimates from recent engineering studies to determine where stand-alone renewable energy generation is a cost effective alternative to centralized grid supply. The results suggest that decentralized renewable energy will likely play an important role in expanding rural energy access. But it will be the lowest cost option for a minority of households in Africa, even when likely cost reductions over the next 20 years are considered. Decentralized renewables are competitive mostly in remote and rural areas, while grid connected supply dominates denser areas where the majority of households reside. These findings underscore the need to de-carbonize the fuel mix for centralized power generation as it expands in Africa.

Does the Private Sector Help or Hurt the Environment? Evidence from Carbon Dioxide Pollution in Developing Countries

Abstract How does the nature of enterprise ownership affect the environment in an economy? Conventional wisdom and theoretical conjectures are split on this important question. In this paper we estimate a reduced-form, random-effects model using data from 44 developing countries over nine years (1987–95) to study for any systematic empirical relationship between the relative level of private sector involvement in an economy and the environmental performance of the economy in terms of its emission of industrial carbon dioxide. We control for both observed and unobserved crosscountry heterogeneity along various institutional and structural dimensions such as the scope of financial market, industrial sector composition and level of foreign direct investment. The regression results indicate that the higher the degree of private sector involvement in a developing economy, the lower is its environmental degradation. In addition, its environmental degradation is likely to be further reduced in presence of a well-functioning domestic capital market and through increased participation by developed economies in its private sector development.

Pesticide use in Brazil in the era of agroindustrialization and globalization

This study examines the trend in pesticide use in Brazil in the 1990s in the context of agroindustrialization and globalization (trade liberalization). It also seeks to document the environmental costs and human health hazard associated with pesticide use in Brazil. Results from time series data indicate that agricultural trade liberalization has led to increased pesticide use in Brazil, particularly in export crops. Results from cross-section municipality-level data point to higher incidence of pesticide use in municipalities with high income, higher levels of education, large-size farms, predominance of export crops, and with high prevalence of sharecropping. Finally, the study finds that Brazils agricultural growth in the era of trade liberalization has been clouded by serious human health problems and environmental damage caused by pesticide use.

Stockpiles of obsolete pesticides and cleanup priorities : a methodology and application for Tunisia

Obsolete pesticides have accumulated in almost every developing country or economy in transition over the past several decades. Concerned about the risks these chemicals pose to nearby residents, public health and environmental authorities are eager to reduce health threats by removing and decontaminating stockpile sites. However, there are many sites, cleanup can be costly, and public resources are scarce, so decision makers need to set priorities. Under these conditions, it seems sensible to develop a methodology for prioritizing sites and treating them sequentially, as budgetary resources permit. This paper presents a new methodology that develops a cleanup priority index for 1915 metric tons of obsolete pesticide formulations at 197 stockpile sites in Tunisia. The approach integrates information on populations at risk, their proximity to stockpiles, and the relative toxic hazards of the stockpiles. What emerges from the Tunisia results is a strategy for sequentially addressing all 197 sites to rapidly reduce potential health damage in a cost-effective way.

Agricultural Trade, Development and Toxic Risk

Abstract This paper uses a large database of laboratory test results to investigate the sources of international variation in pesticide residues on food products. We specify and estimate a model that incorporates contamination effects attributable to product pest sensitivity, pesticide toxicity levels and characteristics of the producing country. Among the latter, our model tests for the effects of income, education and openness to trade. We find large and highly significant “generic” differences in contamination of food products, reflecting pesticide applications that vary with pest sensitivity. Controlling for these differences, we find strong effects for income and education. Pesticide residues on agricultural products fall sharply as income increases, but rise significantly with education. Our model attributes the latter effect to the choice of more capital-, skill- and pesticide-intensive technologies in better-educated societies. We find no significant impact for openness to trade. Our results suggest that workers and consumers in low-income societies have far higher exposure to toxic pesticides than their counterparts in high-income societies, but that consumers in the latter experience significant increases in toxic exposure risk as agricultural trade with developing countries expands. The paper concludes with a discussion of appropriate instruments for resolving a potentially serious trade-environment conflict on this front.

Estimating Willingness-to-Pay with Random Valuation Models: An Application to Lake Sevan, Armenia

This paper presents a case study of willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimation using random valuation models. A contingent valuation survey was conducted in Yerevan, Armenia to estimate peoples WTP for the protection of Lake Sevan. Three elicitation formats-open-ended, closed-ended, and the stochastic payment card (SPC) approach-were used with split random samples. WTP models with heterogeneous errors were constructed and estimated with the survey data. The SPC approach produces a higher estimation of the mean WTP than both the open-ended and closed-ended approaches, while results from the open-ended and closed-ended elicitation formats are similar. Furthermore, contrary to research findings obtained in the United States, this study finds higher WTP estimations with mail surveys than with personal interviews.

Public Disclosure of Environmental Violations in the Republic of Korea

Since 1989, environmental authorities of the Republic of Korea have published on a monthly basis a list of enterprises violating the countrys environmental rules and regulations. This may be the longest environmental public disclosure program currently in existence. Over the period 1993-2001 in excess of 7,000 violations have been recorded in these monthly violation lists, involving more than 3,400 different companies. In this paper, the authors provide a comprehensive descriptive analysis of this dataset. Results suggest that the news media have given an important, though perhaps declining coverage, to the violation lists, with a focus on publicly traded companies, failures to operate pollution abatement equipment, and prosecutions.

Pesticide traders' perception of health risks : evidence from Bangladesh

As pesticide traders are important sources of information about the health impacts of pesticides, a crucial understanding of their perception is necessary to guide further pesticide information dissemination efforts through this channel. To this end, a 2003 survey of 110 Bangladeshi pesticide traders was conducted with questions on the pesticides in stock, knowledge and training in pesticide use and handling, sources of information, protective measures, and health effects. A two-equation bivariate probit model was initially estimated for health impairment and trader perception with health effects as an endogenous regressor in the perception equation. Results indicate that pesticide toxicity, exposure in terms of number of years spent in the pesticide business, traders age (experience), and the interaction between the most harmful pesticides and training received in pesticide use and handling were the significant determinants of health impairment status. Risk perception was determined by actual health impairment status, pesticide toxicity, the average number of hours spent in the shop per day, training, and the interaction term between highly toxic substances and training. The evidence suggests that the current information content may not be effective, and thus training programs should be revised with a greater emphasis on health hazards and averting behavior.

Measuring Up: New Directions for Environmental Programs at the World Bank

The World Banks new environment strategy advocates cost-effective reduction of air and water pollutants that are most harmful to human health. In addition, it addresses threats to the livelihood of over one billion people who live on fragile lands-lands that are steeply sloped, arid, or covered by natural forests. The new approach will require accurate information about environmental threats to health and livelihood, as well as an appropriate resource-allocation strategy. Drawing on recent research at the World Bank and elsewhere, this paper attempts to apply an optimal investment approach. It develops a rule for optimal cross-country resource allocation that reflects the Banks investment policy. Using this rule, the paper estimates optimal country shares of the Banks environmental investments from two sets of variables: threats from outdoor air pollution, water pollution, and fragile lands; and estimates of the likelihood that Bank projects will succeed. The paper combines the country shares with the Banks investment data to estimate optimal country allocations for each environmental problem. Finally, it aggregates the country results to allocations for the major regions in which the Bank operates. Combining optimal investments for pollution and fragile lands, it finds that the largest share of total investment goes to East Asia (44 percent), followed by South Asia (21 percent) and Sub-Saharan Africa (19 percent). Other regions get significantly lower shares.

Welfare measurement convergence through bias adjustments in general population and on-site surveys: an application to water-based recreation at lake sevan, Armenia.

Abstract This paper compares household survey with on-site survey data for estimating the access value of a unique natural resource using a single-site travel cost model. The household survey model is adjusted for inflated zero observations for respondents who would not visit the site at any observable positive price. The on-site survey model is corrected for truncation and endogenous stratification, the latter being an adjustment for avidity bias. In an application to recreation at Lake Sevan (Armenia), consumer surplus estimates were not statistically different between the household model and the on-site model when zero-inflation and truncation and endogenous stratification are corrected In the respective models. This leads us to believe that either method can be used to derive a consistent welfare measure of access to a recreational site after appropriate adjustments and corrections are made. These results are somewhat reassuring as the choice between household and on-site surveys is often dictated by time and resource availability.