Kiran Pandey

Ambient particulate pollution and the world-wide prevalence of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema in children: Phase One of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC)

Objectives To investigate the effect of ambient particulate matter on variation in childhood prevalence of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema. Methods Prevalences of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema obtained in Phase One of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) were matched with city-level estimates of residential PM10 obtained from a World Bank model. Associations were investigated using binomial regression adjusting for GNP per capita and for clustering within country. For countries with more than one centre, a two stage meta-analysis was carried out. The results were compared with a meta-analysis of published multi-centre studies. Results Annual concentrations of PM10 at city level were obtained for 105 ISAAC centres in 51 countries. After controlling for GNP per capita, there was a weak negative association between PM10 and various outcomes. For severe wheeze in 13–14-year-olds, the OR for a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM10 was 0.92 (95% CI 0.84 to 1.00). In 24 countries with more than one centre, most summary estimates for within-country associations were weakly positive. For severe wheeze in 13–14-year-olds, the summary OR for a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM10 was 1.01 (0.92 to 1.10). This result was close to a summary OR of 0.99 (0.91 to 1.06) obtained from published multi-centre studies. Conclusions Modelled estimates of particulate matter at city level are imprecise and incomplete estimates of personal exposure to ambient air pollutants. Nevertheless, our results together with those of previous multi-centre studies, suggest that urban background PM10 has little or no association with the prevalence of childhood asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis or eczema either within or between countries.

Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Cyclones in a Changing Climate: Potential Damages and Adaptation Cost

This paper integrates information on climate change, hydrodynamic models, and geographic overlays to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas in Bangladesh to larger storm surges and sea-level rise by 2050. The approach identifies polders (diked areas), coastal populations, settlements, infrastructure, and economic activity at risk of inundation, and estimates the cost of damage versus the cost of several adaptation measures. A 27-centimeter sea-level rise and 10 percent intensification of wind speed from global warming suggests the vulnerable zone increases in size by 69 percent given a +3-meter inundation depth and by 14 percent given a +1-meter inundation depth. At present, Bangladesh has 123 polders, an early warning and evacuation system, and more than 2,400 emergency shelters to protect coastal inhabitants from tidal waves and storm surges. However, in a changing climate, it is estimated that 59 of the 123 polders would be overtopped during storm surges and another 5,500 cyclone shelters (each with the capacity of 1,600 people) to safeguard the population would be needed. Investments including strengthening polders, foreshore afforestation, additional multi-purpose cyclone shelters, cyclone-resistant private housing, and further strengthening of the early warning and evacuation system would cost more than

Cyclones in a Changing Climate : The Case of Bangladesh

2.4 billion with an annual recurrent cost of more than

Climate Proofing Infrastructure in Bangladesh: The Incremental Cost of Limiting Future Flood Damage:

50 million. However, a conservative damage estimate suggests that the incremental cost of adapting to these climate change related risks by 2050 is small compared with the potential damage in the absence of adaptation measures.

Costs of adapting to climate change for human health in developing countries

This paper integrates information on climate-change, hydrodynamic models, and geographic overlays to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas in Bangladesh to larger storm surges and sea-level rise (SLR) by 2050. The approach identifies polders, coastal populations, settlements, infrastructure, and economic activity at risk of inundation, and estimates the damage from storm surge inundation versus the cost of several adaptation measures. A 27-centimetre SLR and 10% intensification of wind speed resulting from global warming suggest that the vulnerable zone increases in size by 69% given a +3-metre inundation depth, and by 14% given a +1-metre inundation depth. Estimates indicate investments including strengthening polders, foreshore afforestation, additional multi-purpose cyclone shelters, cyclone-resistant private housing, and further strengthening of the early warning and evacuation system would cost more than

Climate Proofing Infrastructure in Bangladesh: The Incremental Cost of Limiting Future Inland Monsoon Flood Damage

2.4 billion, with an annual recurrent cost of more than

Measuring Up: New Directions for Environmental Programs at the World Bank

50 million. These estimates can serve as a prototype in climate negotiations of the adaptation costs of extreme weather events.

Forecasting local climate for policy analysis : a pilot application for Ethiopia

Bangladesh is one of the most flood prone countries in the world. Two thirds of the country is less than 5 m above sea level. Past monsoon flood records indicate that about 21% of the country is subject to annual flooding and an additional 42% is at risk of floods with varied intensity. Although annual regular flooding has traditionally been beneficial, providing nutrient-laden sediments and recharging groundwater aquifers, the country often experiences severe flooding during a monsoon that causes significant damage to crops and properties with adverse impacts on rural livelihoods and production. The 1998 flood inundated two thirds of the land area, resulting in damages and losses of over US

Indoor Air Quality for Poor Families: New Evidence from Bangladesh

2 billion, or 4.8% of GDP. Climate models suggest increased precipitation, higher transboundary water flows, and sea-level rise will all increase the destructive power of monsoon floods. Using climate change scenarios out to 2050, hydrological and hydrodynamic models, this article estimates an incremental cost to climate-proof roads and railways, river embankments protecting productive agricultural lands, and drainage systems and erosion control measures for major towns of US

Who suffers from indoor air pollution? Evidence from Bangladesh

2,671 million initially and US