Craig R. Parsons

Exchange Rate Pass-through and Currency Invoicing: Implications for Monetary Integration in East Asia

Exporters price-setting behaviour and currency invoicing play a key role in the literature on the new open-economy macroeconomics. This paper estimates exchange rate pass-through coefficients for the exports of four ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In addition, previous estimates of pass-through as well as invoicing behaviour in East Asia are discussed in the context of regional integration. The new pass-through coefficients are estimated under two alternate specifications for up to 34 goods for each of the four ASEAN countries destined for up to 13 major markets. The results suggest: (a) little pass-through is occurring in Southeast Asia and (b) this lack of pass-through is more likely attributable to the fact that they are small countries in a relatively integrated market, rather than evidence of pricing to market. The implications for regional monetary integration of this apparently low degree of pass-through are detailed.

The Japanese Automobile Tyre Industry under Scrutiny

Abstract This paper investigates the evolution of competition in the Japanese tyre market from 1976 to 2010 (35 years). An innovative measure of competition developed by Jan Boone is employed, as well as traditional competition indices and price–cost margin regressions, using accounting data at the firm level. Traditional indicators such as the concentration ratio and Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) suggest a very high market concentration. However, regressions using the two Boone measures and price–cost margin suggest that some competitive behavior in the Japanese tyre industry exists. By introducing dummy variables for the Sumitomo–Ohtsu merger and antimonopoly action by the Japan Fair Trade Commission, the Boone-style regressions also suggest that the merger had no impact, but the cartel breakup did have a statistically significant (p < 0.1) impact on firm’s profitability in this oligopolistic market.

Have US-Japan Trade Agreements Made a Difference?

Abstract The few existing empirical studies of US–Japan trade agreements have relied primarily on descriptive statistics or univariate time series methods. We conduct a potentially more powerful test by evaluating agreements in the context of well-specified econometric models. Consistent with trade theory, import demand is modeled as a cointegrating relationship with income and relative price variables, where a trade agreement may cause a structural break in the cointegrating vector. Results are mixed, with evidence in several sectors of a possible change in import behavior following market-opening trade agreements, while in other cases no significant impact can be detected.

Japan’s trade agreements aren’t “window dressing” after all

ABSTRACT We analyze eight of the 15 existing Japanese economic partnership agreements (EPAs) from 1997 to 2012. First, we construct bilateral measures of trade barriers for Japan and its partners using input-output and trade data. Next, we conduct panel regressions using those measures and find that when Japan forms an EPA, the tariff-equivalent barrier between the two countries falls approximately 2% to 3%. Contrary to conventional wisdom, this suggests that Japan’s EPAs may not be merely “window dressing” after all. This has implications for larger trade agreements in the works, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).