Nagendra Shrestha

Economic Integration in East Asia: An International Input-Output Analysis

To establish economic and monetary union (EMU) in East Asia, deepening regional integration through international trade is important. The economic interdependence (one of the important criteria for regional integration) study, using macro data does not reflect the indirect effects generated by interactions between different production sectors and different countries. We use the international input-output (IIO) framework to study the economic interdependence at both macro and production sector levels. We refine the existing methods to reflect exogenous country effect and size effect of the economy. Our study suggests that establishing EMU in East Asia appears to be somewhat premature. However, we can be more optimistic for regional integration at the production sector level in East Asia when including Japan, which will create a basis for EMU in the region.

New Estimates of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate: The Case for the Chinese Renminbi

We estimate the equilibrium exchange rate (EER) of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar from 1992 to 2008. In contrast to the recent empirical studies on the EER employing a large cross-country analysis, we focus on the supply side real factors in estimating the EER by extending the Yoshikawa (1990) model. To better reflect Chinas processing exports in the context of growing intra-regional trade in Asia, we incorporate in the empirical analysis the source country breakdown data on import prices and input coefficients of intermediate inputs by constructing an annual new International Input-Output (IIO) table for the period from 1992 to 2008. The results show that the EER of Chinese RMB appreciates sharply from 2005 to 2008, suggesting that the current RMB exchange rate has been substantially undervalued and should be revalued by 65 percent from the year 2000 level. Such sharp appreciation of the EER corresponds to the dramatic increase in Chinas current account surplus from the mid-2000s, especially against the United States, which is ascribed to the significant improvement of both labor and intermediate input coefficients in China.

Japan’s trade agreements aren’t “window dressing” after all

ABSTRACT We analyze eight of the 15 existing Japanese economic partnership agreements (EPAs) from 1997 to 2012. First, we construct bilateral measures of trade barriers for Japan and its partners using input-output and trade data. Next, we conduct panel regressions using those measures and find that when Japan forms an EPA, the tariff-equivalent barrier between the two countries falls approximately 2% to 3%. Contrary to conventional wisdom, this suggests that Japan’s EPAs may not be merely “window dressing” after all. This has implications for larger trade agreements in the works, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

Industry-specific Exchange Rate Volatility and Intermediate Goods Trade in Asia

This paper empirically analyzes the effect of exchange rate volatility on intra-Asian trade of intermediate goods at an industry level by constructing a new dataset of the industry-specific bilateral real exchange rate. As the final processed exports are destined for countries outside the Asian region, both the exchange rate and world demand are considered as a possible driving force in the cross-border fragmentation and processing trade. It is found that, in contrast to the recent studies, the exchange rate impact on intra-regional trade differs across industries. The exchange rate volatility has negative and significant effects only on the general machinery industry and a part of the electric machinery industry with more differentiated products, even when taking into account the worlds demand for the final processed exports. These findings are supported by various kinds of exchange rate volatility in the short- and long-run. Our empirical results suggest that the different impact of the exchange rate volatility across industries is tied to the characteristics of traded goods in respective industries.

New estimates of the equilibrium exchange rate

We estimate the equilibrium exchange rate (EER) of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar from 1992 to 2008. In contrast to the recent empirical studies on the EER employing a large cross-country analysis, we focus on the supply side real factors in estimating the EER by extending the Yoshikawa (1990) model. To better reflect Chinas processing exports in the context of growing intra-regional trade in Asia, we incorporate in the empirical analysis the source country breakdown data on import prices and input coefficients of intermediate inputs by constructing an annual new International Input-Output (IIO) table for the period from 1992 to 2008. The results show that the EER of Chinese RMB appreciates sharply from 2005 to 2008, suggesting that the current RMB exchange rate has been substantially undervalued and should be revalued by 65 percent from the year 2000 level. Such sharp appreciation of the EER corresponds to the dramatic increase in Chinas current account surplus from the mid-2000s, especially against the United States, which is ascribed to the significant improvement of both labor and intermediate input coefficients in China.

New Estimates of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate: The Case for the Chinese Renminbi: RENMINBI EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATE

We estimate the equilibrium exchange rate (EER) of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar from 1992 to 2008. In contrast to the recent empirical studies on the EER employing a large cross-country analysis, we focus on the supply side real factors in estimating the EER by extending the Yoshikawa (1990) model. To better reflect Chinas processing exports in the context of growing intra-regional trade in Asia, we incorporate in the empirical analysis the source country breakdown data on import prices and input coefficients of intermediate inputs by constructing an annual new International Input-Output (IIO) table for the period from 1992 to 2008. The results show that the EER of Chinese RMB appreciates sharply from 2005 to 2008, suggesting that the current RMB exchange rate has been substantially undervalued and should be revalued by 65 percent from the year 2000 level. Such sharp appreciation of the EER corresponds to the dramatic increase in Chinas current account surplus from the mid-2000s, especially against the United States, which is ascribed to the significant improvement of both labor and intermediate input coefficients in China.